NWS Spokane, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 26, 2:49 PM PST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 26, 2:49 PM PST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
349 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather wanes this evening, with some patchy fog possible
overnight. A wet system arrives Wednesday, with widespread
precipitation. Precipitation becomes showery Thursday with the
potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Showers will continue into
Friday, with a warming and drying trend through the weekend into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showery weather will continue this evening, before a
brief lull until a wetter system moves in Wednesday. This
afternoon and evening a stretching mid-level shortwave is crossing
the region, interacting with some low-grade instability,
resulting in widely scattered showers. Some isolated embedded
thunderstorms have been noted, with some small hail/graupel
reported. These will continue to impact the eastern third of WA
and north ID, with few showers trailing back into the upper
Columbia Basin and perhaps as far west as the Waterville Plateau.
Some snow will also be found in the mountains, but accumulations
are expected to be minor. Overall showers are expected to wane as
the sunset sets and as a stabilizing ridge nudges in from the
west ahead of the next system. Overnight looks mostly dry, with
some patchy fog in the sheltered valleys over northern WA and over
ID, as well as in more localized fashion in some of the Cascade
valleys. Overnight lows will largely be in the 30s, with some 20s
near the Cascade valleys and sheltered northern valley.
Wednesday: an organized frontal wave moves into the region, with
a good chance of rain and more mountain snow. The warm front
pushes up to the Cascades in the morning. This will allow
precipitation to expand over the Cascades and western basin in the
morning. Chances approach eastern WA toward late morning to
midday. However the better chances expand over the remainder of
the CWA in the afternoon and evening as the occluding cold front
pushes in. This frontal wave comes with PWATs around 0.45 to 0.65
inches (or 130-170% of normal) before drier air starts in later in
the evening into the overnight. Look for expanding rain and
mainly mountain snow Wednesday, starting near the Cascades in the
morning and expanding through the region for the afternoon and
evening. The heavier precipitation rates are expected in the later
afternoon and evening. As the front pushes through look for some
increase wind speed, particularly over the western Columbia Basin
and around the Blue Mountains/Camas Prairie. Gusts around 15-30
mph are possible in these areas. Temperatures are expected to be
held back below normal a little bit, due to wetter weather.
However if the rain is slower to move in temperatures may be
closer normal.
* Rain amounts: Every location has a good chance of seeing
measurable rain, i.e. at least 0.01”. The 24-hour probability
of >=0.10 inches of rain (i.e. a wetting rain) is around 60-90%
over a good portion of the our CWA, with 40-60% around the
deeper Columbia Basin/Wenatchee area and near the Okanogan
County/BC border and Bonners Ferry area. Areas around the
mountain zones, particularly the higher terrain, and even some
of the eastern Columbia Basin/Palouse could see see near a
quarter inch. So this looks like a wet system. Hydrographs show
some rises on rivers with this system, but nothing is projected
to reach action level, much less flood stage. However there
could be some ponding of water in poor drainage areas and
typical urban areas and some minor rock/mudslides may be found.
Confidence in any of that remains low.
* Snow amounts: The snow that has the potential for impacts will
be around the Cascade crest and over the north-central WA
passes. The official forecast for Stevens Pass has about 2-4
inches of snow through Wednesday night and about 1-2 inches
Thursday. Similar amounts are in the forecast around Sherman
Pass. Meanwhile the Idaho Passes have about 1 inches or so. Many
of this may fall during the daytime hours when road temperatures
will not be as receptive to accumulating, which should lessen
impacts. However still look at pass conditions before you
travel.
Thursday: the occluding front will be pushing east of the area by
Thursday morning and an unstable upper trough will moving into
the region. The parent low remains off the coast, but embedded
shortwave pivot into the region and at least a couple eject
through our region. (However as a whole the pattern is very
littered with small scale vorticity maxima.) Overall this set-up
will work with instability (700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5-8.5
C/km and SBCAPE between 100-300 J/kg) to bring scattered showers
and the threat of embedded thunderstorms. That means precipitation
will not be as steady as the later Wednesday/Wednesday evening
precipitation, but will still carry the potential for brief
downpours, gusty winds, small hail/graupel and lightning. Coverage
will be highest in the afternoon and around the eastern third of
WA and ID. The lee of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin will
see the lowest risk. Snow is still expected in the mountains and
some may also mix into some of the higher valleys near the
Cascades and northern WA in the morning. Accumulations look light
with most areas seeing less than a inch. Winds will be breezy over
more of the region, with gusts in the 15-30 mph range. Central WA
and the upper Columbia Basin has the best chance of the stronger
gusts. The threat of showers and the winds wanes through Thursday
night, with the higher focus shifting to the windward mountains.
Patchy fog is possible overnight. Highs are expected to be closer
to normal, in the 50s. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning are
expected to be in the 30s. /Solveig
Friday through Tuesday: After bringing widespread precipitation to
the region Wednesday and Thursday, the offshore low pressure system
will move further down the coast toward California allowing for
clearing and drying here in the Inland Northwest.
Abundant moisture will linger near the surface for a couple of days
following the widespread mid-week rainfall. This low-level moisture
in combination with decreasing cloud cover will provide conditions
conducive to fog formation particularly for the northern valleys and
the Idaho Panhandle Thursday night into Friday morning and Friday
night into Saturday morning.
While most of the region will dry out following the low's departure,
chances for showers will still hang around into the weekend along
the Cascade Crest, extreme Eastern Washington, and the Idaho
Panhandle. Instability isn't looking too impressive through the
weekend timeframe, but isolated bursts of graupel won't be out of
the question.
Heading into next week a short-lived ridge will move in, eliminating
any remaining chances for showers through the day on Monday. By
Tuesday chances for showers will creep back over the Cascades and
Idaho Panhandle as our next system approaches.
Looking at temperatures, overnight lows will be near seasonal
averages - 20s for the northern valleys, around 40 for the LC
Valley, and 30s everywhere else. Afternoon highs will start out near
normal in the 50s on Friday and will gradually increase through the
forecast period, peaking in the mid 60s by Tuesday next week. Parts
of the LC Valley and the deep Columbia Basin could climb into the
low 70s. /Fewkes
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers and isolated embedded -tsra will linger this
afternoon/early evening, dissipating after about 02-03Z. Some
brief heavy downpours and small hail, as well as some MVFR cigs
are possible with these. High pressure briefly builds in
overnight, with some risk for fog developing around GEG-SFF-COE.
But confidence only leans toward vicinity or perhaps shallow fog
at this time. The next system comes in Wednesday, with rain
increasing from west to east through the day and bringing with it
lowering cigs and possible reduced visibility in the steadier
rain. MVFR conditions are projected with the rain. Expect mountain
obscurations.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
to high confidence in showers decreasing after 02-03Z. Low
confidence in fog overnight at TAF sites. High confidence in rain
spreading over the region Wednesday, moderate confidence in
precise timing. Some snow may mix in early near EAT, but
confidence is low. If precipitation arrives earlier in the GEG-
SFF-COE area (before 16Z) some snow may also mix in there, but
confidence is moderate to high that precipitation will not arrive
until late morning to afternoon.
------------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 33 48 38 52 34 54 / 20 90 100 60 30 30
Coeur d'Alene 31 47 37 48 33 51 / 30 70 100 80 40 40
Pullman 32 47 37 50 34 52 / 30 70 100 80 40 40
Lewiston 36 55 41 56 38 57 / 20 50 90 70 30 20
Colville 29 46 34 51 31 51 / 30 90 100 70 40 40
Sandpoint 32 45 36 46 34 47 / 40 60 100 90 50 60
Kellogg 34 46 39 45 34 48 / 40 60 100 90 40 50
Moses Lake 34 50 35 58 35 59 / 10 80 40 10 10 10
Wenatchee 36 44 36 54 36 55 / 0 80 20 20 10 10
Omak 35 46 37 56 37 57 / 10 100 60 30 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&