Drought in Guam, March 26 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
623 AM ChST Tue Mar 26 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Scattered showers continue to cross the region this morning. Seas are
still a little elevated with the latest altimetry showing them
averaging in the 9 to 10 foot range.

&&

.Discussion...
The main forecast concern remains the winds today which will
exacerbate fire weather concerns. Showers will begin to decrease in
coverage over the next 48 hours as the shear line just south of Guam
continues to weaken. Skies look to flirt on the border of partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies based on the latest time heights, as
they show good moisture above 250 mb (high-level cirrus) and below
700-750 mb (~7000 to 1000 feet). This could have role to a light
extent in fire weather headlines. Otherwise, look for a drier trade
pattern to resume.

&&

.Marine...
We decided to extend the Small Craft Advisory through this afternoon
based on the latest altimetry, as seas near 10 feet and wind gusts
above 22 knots remain probable. Seas and surf do look to gradually
decrease over the next 24 hours or so.

&&

.Fire weather...
We received 0.17 inches of rainfall yesterday, just short of a
wetting rain, which allowed the KDBI to climb once again, now at 685.
Given the likelihood of gusty winds today, a Red Flag Warning may
need to be issued later. We're holding off for now to see what the
gradient wind at 925 mb (~1500 feet) is and what the morning visible
imagery shows in terms of cloud cover/solar heating
potential/rainfall probabilities.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Multiple brief surges in the trades will continue to bring on- and-
off showers and some thunderstorms across eastern Micronesia for much
of the week.

An injection of fresh air into the mid-levels near Pohnpei around
midweek is expected to introduce a break in shower coverage and
decreased cloud cover for a day or two. Kosrae will encounter a
wetter trade-wind regime through at least the weekend, before another
drier cycle begins early next week. Majuro will see much more
pleasant weather through Wednesday, followed by a northward-
propagating convergence zone bringing showers and thunderstorms for a
few days, followed by a return of drier seasonal trades during the
weekend.

Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet are expected to taper down a foot or two
in the next day or so, before picking up once again as trade winds
intensify and more northerly swells make their way across the region.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Seasonal trade-wind pattern returns, bringing along with it fairly
dry weather for much of the forecast period at Palau, Yap and Chuuk.
While much more pleasant and stable weather is expected, abnormally
dry conditions are likely to worsen, stressing vegetation such as
coconuts, in addition to increasing risks of water shortages. Such
issues have already been reported in the outer islands such as Fais
in Yap State, and such reports may expand across various populated
areas in the region. As such, these possible drought conditions
shall be monitored closely by various agencies.

Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet to taper down by 2 to 3 feet in the next
few days as various swells and wind waves diminish, before picking
up once again as trade winds intensify and more northerly swells make
their way across the region by the weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154.

&&

Marianas: Doll
Micronesia: Montvila