Scattered thunderstorms associated with low pressure and a surface trough produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of central and eastern Virginia.
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The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms associated with low pressure and a surface trough produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of central and eastern Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 6:47 PM EST, 7 hours 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 747 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front followed by a cold front will affect the area Sunday afternoon through Monday night, bringing additional rounds of showers and storms and potential severe weather Monday. An upper trough brings cooler and comfortable weather to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 745 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Isolated showers and storms through this evening. - Areas of dense fog again expected to develop along the coast overnight. As of 745 PM, a lone thunderstorm is approaching Mecklenburg County. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail with a fair amount of high levels clouds moving over the area. There's also a batch of marine stratus along the northern OBX into Currituck County. Expecting a tranquil late evening and early overnight period, except we will have to watch to see if any of the t-storm activity currently moving through central MD is able to clip northern Dorchester county closer to midnight. The most important thing to mention for early Sunday morning is the re- development of fog (locally dense) along the coast. Hi-res model guidance is in good agreement with areas of fog developing after 06Z all along the mid-Atlantic coast, extending inland across Hampton Roads and portions of interior SE VA and NE NC. A Dense Fog Advisory will probably be needed later on tonight to account for this. Lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered storms return Sunday. - There is a threat of severe weather for Memorial Day (Monday). Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Not much change for Sunday and similar wx is expected. Highs warm into the mid-upper 80s. A few spots could even touch 90. However, a few factors favor slightly higher convective coverage and perhaps intensity. On the synoptic scale, slightly higher mid-level flow overspreads the area in advance of a shortwave tracking from the OH River Valley into the Great Lakes. Temperatures and dew points will also be a degree or two higher than today, favoring a more unstable low-level airmass. Hi-res model output shows MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg away from the eastern shore with ~20 kt of effective shear areawide. The limiting factor early in the afternoon will be a lack of any triggering mechanisms. The one exception are sea breezes which could focus areas of higher coverage. Toward the later aftn and evening, there is moderate agreement that some sort of MCS will be moving eastward from the Appalachia region in association w/ the upper disturbance. As this enters into the FA, will need to watch for the potential for strong wind gusts, especially if it moves in with some lingering instability. Most CAMs show a considerable weakening trend, especially as it nears the I-95 corridor and points eastward. The area is not outlooked from SPC at this time. Lingering showers are possible overnight and have 30-50% PoPs through the morning hours Monday. Overnight lows drop into the mid 60s. Patchy fog could also develop Sun night as weak sfc flow continues. Anomalous upper trough slides E for Monday/Memorial Day. At the surface, a strong cold front will approach from the W. There is increasing concern for severe wx areawide in the afternoon and evening ahead of this front. It is during this time that 500 mb flow increases to 40-60 kt and a potent shortwave noses into the region. Instability will also be in plentiful supply with MLCAPE well in excess of 2000 J/kg at times. This is not only due to steep low- level lapse rates and strong sfc instability, but also because of steep mid- level lapse rates approaching 7-8 C/km. Thinking is that supercells or multicells will initially be favored (w/ damaging winds and large hail hazards), transitioning to a predominantly wind threat as clusters grow upscale. SPC has a slight risk for most of the area and marginal risk over NE NC. The extent and duration of the severe risk will be dependent on the exact timing (later timing may reduce the severe threat further E/SE as instability wanes). Locally heavy rain is also likely in any storm. Overall, certainly worth watching and monitoring the latest updates here and from SPC, especially with a plethora of scheduled outdoor activities for the holiday weekend. Outside of storms, afternoon highs will be in the mid- upper 80s with dew points in the low- mid 70s. Thus, it'll feel noticeably muggy. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 60 s W to near 70 E/SE. Much quieter Tuesday with a lingering shower or storm across the far SE. Highs in the low-mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Trending cooler and more comfortable for the middle and end of next week. A relatively deep trough will drop into and remain positioned over the ern CONUS for Wednesday through at least early next weekend. Except for a chance of a shower/tstm over nrn portions of the area Wed aftn into Wed evening in advance of a shortwave, dry weather will prevail through the extended period. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s. Comfortable conditions under a partly to mostly sunny sky expected for Thu and Fri, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s Tue night and 50s areawide Wed-Fri night. Can't rule out some upper 40s across the NW at some point. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Saturday... There is again a strong signal in model guidance for fog and low stratus development tonight. The highest coverage will be at the coastal terminals and IFR-LIFR restrictions look likely at ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY after 06z. RIC is again the most uncertain and will go w/ prevailing MVFR VSBY there after 08z. Expect rapid improvement after 9 AM/13z Sun. Outlook: Scattered showers/storms will again be possible later Sun, with highest confidence at RIC. Could again see fog or low stratus Sun night. A higher coverage of showers and storms (some of which could be severe) is expected Mon aftn and evening. Outside of storms, expect mainly VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Benign conditions this afternoon/evening. - Dense marine fog possible tonight into Sunday morning. - Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and evening) through Memorial Day. Benign marine conditions across the local waters this afternoon, with high pressure remaining in place over the region. Winds are generally out of the E to SE around 5-10 kt with waves 1 ft or less and seas 1-2 ft. Winds become light tonight into Sunday morning and we will have to watch the potential for the development of dense fog over the waters. Similar conditions tomorrow with increasing onshore winds by the afternoon/evening. A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Winds increase out of the S and SW ahead of the front, with winds potentially approaching SCA criteria Monday afternoon and evening. Winds veer around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. Widespread showers and storms (potentially strong to severe) will be possible on Monday ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back offshore through midweek. Low Rip Risk on area beaches tomorrow, with a moderate rip risk for northern beaches on Monday with building seas and more of a shore normal component to wave energy. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...SW/TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AJB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-509>517-261815- Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg- Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William- 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. At this time, the primary threats look to be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Monday. MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ075>078-081>090-092-093-095>100- 518>525-261815- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent- Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City- Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Virginia Beach-Accomack-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Areas of dense fog are expected to develop overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. At this time, the primary threats look to be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Monday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
155 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024
VAZ064-517-260630-
Western King William VA-Caroline VA-
155 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CAROLINE AND
NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...
At 155 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dawn, or 7 miles south of Milford, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Caroline and northwestern King William Counties, including the
following locations... Duane Fork and Penola.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3785 7741 3799 7741 3801 7724 3783 7721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 266DEG 5KT 3793 7733
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MMThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:06 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Traffic was slowed due to water over the road near the intersection of Frog Level Road and Route 301 (Richmond Turnpike).
There were many reports of high water across the city of Norfolk.
Water was covering the roadway at Monticello Avenue and East 26th Street.
Cars were stranded due to high water at Virginia Beach Boulevard and Tidewater Drive.
There were numerous reports of flooded roadways across the city of Chesapeake, especially in the Deep Creek area.
The west bound right lane and right shoulder at Interstate 64 at Mile Marker 294.1 in the city of Chesapeake near the High Rise Bridge were closed due to high water.
Traffic was delayed due to standing water on road near the intersection of Route 621 and Barlow Lane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1186959, 1186962, 1186963, 1186967, 1186970, 1186974, 1186977.