An isolated severe thunderstorm produced a localized downburst over the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia.
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The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm produced a localized downburst over the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 9:59 AM EST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1059 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front located over the Ohio River Valley will approach and then move through the forecast area by this evening. In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure and dry conditions return to end the workweek and will persist throughout the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid-morning, radar imagery shows an area of stratiform rainfall departing out of southern Maryland, while a few additional showers move into Garrett, Allegany, Mineral, and Grant Counties. The bulk of the forecast area remains dry in- between. An expansive mid-level cloud deck remains in place, but is starting to thin out a bit to the west of the Blue Ridge. At the surface, a cold front is situated just off to our northwest across southwestern PA and WV. This frontal boundary will progress southeastward into our area this afternoon. Weak daytime heating will ensue within the breaks in the mid-level cloud deck ahead of the front, allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s. It remains humid, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. On the synoptic scale, mid-upper level troughing will progress eastward from the Great Lakes toward Upstate New York this afternoon. This will lead to weak height falls aloft locally. The combination of surface convergence along the cold front and a prefrontal trough already in place, along with falling heights aloft will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. This activity should primarily be focused of the east of the Blue Ridge, but any location could see a passing shower or storm. For the DC/Baltimore metro areas, the greatest chance for storms will be between roughly 3 and 8 PM. The environment today will be characterized by very moist profiles, with weak mid-level lapse rates. Muted surface heating beneath the mid-level cloud deck will also lead to weaker than normal low-level lapse rates. Despite these factors, 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop by peak heating. DCAPE values will also be on the lower side with the relatively weak lapse rates and moist profiles in place. The wind field at low- levels is relatively weak, but winds increase markedly in the mid- levels, with over 50 knots of flow evident on the 12z IAD sounding above 6 km. As a result, we'll have ample deep layer shear available to storms, with forecast soundings showing 40-60 knots of effective bulk shear. Hodographs are relatively straight, but have some anticyclonic curvature. With 50 knots of effective bulk shear present, some storms could develop mid- level rotation and become supercellular. The straight line hodographs with the deep layer shear vector paralleling both the orientation of the pre-frontal trough and the approaching cold front may eventually lead to some upscale growth into smaller line segments. Overall, it's an odd parameter space. CAMs show relatively weak updrafts, despite the fact that there could be some updraft rotation. CAPE and DCAPE values, along with low-level lapse rates aren't that impressive, suggesting that the wind threat with storms may be relatively low. Weak mid-level lapse rates and a large percentage of the CAPE occurring below the freezing level suggests that the threat for hail should be very low despite the potential for supercells, and the lack of low-level shear/hodograph curvature suggests that there isn't a tornado threat. However, there is ample low- level forcing along the pre-frontal trough and cold front, which should encourage decent coverage of storms, and enough shear to organize any convection that occurs. As a result, a few damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out. The flood threat appears to be relatively low, as storms should stay fairly progressive. Activity should wind down through the evening, with the threat for storms coming to an end as the front clears southern Maryland late this evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region. Dry conditions return to the Mid-Atlantic Friday with mostly to partly sunny skies expected. The cold front will continue pushing southward toward the Carolinas throughout the day on Friday. While the majority of the area is expected to remain dry, an isolated rain shower cannot be ruled out in the southernmost portions of the forecast area due to the proximity of the frontal boundary. This portion of the forecast area will also see denser cloud cover during the afternoon. Condtions dry out areawide Friday night and are expected to remain dry throughout the day on Saturday. Sunny skies can be expected for most of the area with mostly sunny skies in the southern portions of area. Temperatures will be seasonable each day with highs in the 80s for most and overnight lows in the 60s for most. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low-mid level ridging will prevail during the first part of next week leading to a warming trend while keeping things dry. A mid- level trough over the western Great Lks and Midwest region will drop southward into the northern Mid-Atlc during the middle portion of the week and support sfc troughiness and moisture return into the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase Tue and continue through the rest of the work week. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs aoa 90F and lows aoa 70F. Does not look like there will be any frontal passages next week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon with the highest confidence at KIAD, KDCA, and KBWI. Outside of convection, conditions will remain VFR, with light winds out of the west/southwest. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected as conditions dry out Friday and Saturday. Winds remain light, blowing 5 to 10 knots out of the north/northeast both days. No sig wx expected is expected Sunday or Monday. && .MARINE... Winds remain light today, blowing 5 to 10 knots out of the west/southwest. Showers and thunderstorms over the waters this afternoon may require SMWs for winds greater than 34 knots. Winds shift to north/northeasterly tonight and are expected to remain SCA criteria throughout the day on Friday and Saturday. Winds shift to southeasterly overnight Saturday into Sunday. SCA conditions possible are possible beginning Sunday night and continuing through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies continue to fall with Annapolis hitting action stage during the next few high tide cycles. Southerly winds Saturday night and into Sunday will cause tidal anomalies to rise. Sensitive locations will hit actions stage with no tidal flooding expected at this time. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...AVS/LFR/KJP MARINE...AVS/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 425 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-261000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 425 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms over the waters may produce strong wind gusts and require Special Marine Warnings. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-261000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 425 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-261000- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 425 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:26 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees blew down in the 800 block of Sherman Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1187277.