A moist and unstable air mass was in place with dew points generally in the mid to upper 70s on July 24, 2024. This resulted in scattered heavy rain and flooding across portions of Central and Eastern Virginia as well as isolated severe storms across south central Virginia.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
A moist and unstable air mass was in place with dew points generally in the mid to upper 70s on July 24, 2024. This resulted in scattered heavy rain and flooding across portions of Central and Eastern Virginia as well as isolated severe storms across south central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 2:35 PM EST, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through much of this week with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. A cold frontal passage late this week will likely allow for a drier and more comfortable weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from late this afternoon through around midnight. Localized instances of flash flooding are possible, especially in flood prone/urbanized areas of south central and SE VA into NE NC. Latest wx analysis continues to show a broad positively tilted upper trough centered from eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes, with a Bermuda Ridge located offshore. Moist SW flow aloft continues to stream in over the area between these two features, with PW values on the order of 2-2.25" over the region. At the surface, low pressure is located over the northern mid-Atlantic with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across SE PA into the Blue Ridge. Farther north, low pressure lingers over the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front stretching back into the mid-Missouri valley and the central plains. Some scattered showers have developed just W-NW of a RIC-SBY line early this afternoon, as a few disturbances lift NNE ahead of the approaching front. These showers will continue to push E-NE over the next few hours. The front continues to slowly drop SSE across the region. Latest CAMs continue to struggle with latest trends, but have basically kept high chance to likely PoPs along the theta-e ridge/coincident with moisture convergence boundary NW of RIC through ~5 PM. Storm coverage will be a bit less on average with respect to areal coverage, but the storms that do develop are likely to be heavy rainfall producers. As additional disturbances and a slug of WAA arrives from the W-SW this evening, the concern for heavy rainfall shifts south across south central and SE VA, eventually reaching into the Hampton Roads area and NE NC after 00z/8p. Locally heavy rainfall remains the primary threat from these storms through this evening, and a Day 1 SLGT Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC remains over areas mainly SSE of I-64, tapering to a MRGL Risk across far N/NW portions of the FA. The 12z HREF has a 10-30% probability of 3"/3 hr rain amounts across SE portions of the area during this time, centered just E of I-95 into SE VA. Lastly, the severe threat can't be altogether disregarded, given effective shear on the order of 30-40 KT and some decent MLCAPE values ~1000-1500 J/Kg per latest mesoanalysis. However, given meager mid-level lapse rates, only an isolated threat for a damaging wind gust or two looks to exist. A Marginal Risk from SPC for Day 1 remains in place for the western half of the area. Convection gradually diminishes overnight, with stratus and patchy fog re-developing. some spotty showers will linger into the late night hours, with lows mainly in the upper 60s well inland, low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather continues on Thursday with a continued risk for flash flooding, mainly along and south of Interstate 64. - Gradually improving conditions by Friday with the heavy rain threat shifting south of the local area. The weak front/sfc trough will remain draped near or just NW of the local area to begin the day Thu. Meanwhile, the main cold front will gradually approach from the north through the day, likely reaching the Mason-Dixon line by Thursday evening. The front then slowly drops south across the region Thursday night through Friday. SW flow aloft persists across the region through Thu night, before gradually becoming W then WNW on Fri. Additional disturbances in the flow will continue to track SW to NE over the area tomorrow and Friday, being eventually getting suppressed to our south by late Friday. Stratus will mark much of the day Thursday, and will result in a muggy, cooler day tomorrow with highs only in the low- mid 80s. In addition, showers may be around through much of the day with the heaviest rain (and greatest flash flood threat) confined to SE VA and NE NC. While the NW two- thirds of the area won't see that much rain during the day, convection likely re-fires just ahead of the front by late aftn before again pushing south into the FA during the evening before weakening some Thursday night. Have maintained the likely PoPs across much of the area on Thursday, mainly in the evening. Given the environment and recent wet weather, flash flooding will continue to be the main threat with a very low threat for severe wx. WPC has a SLGT ERO for far southern portions of the area on Thu and a MRGL farther north. On Friday, the best PoPs (likely) become confined to far southern VA and NE NC, with slight chance to chance PoPs further north as the front continues to shift to the south. WPC has the SLGT ERO generally south of the Albemarle Sound, with a MRGL extending north into far southern VA. High temperatures on Friday generally range from the low to mid 80s. Areal average QPFs through Friday range from around 0.5" central/north to 1-2" south of a AVC-AKQ-ORF line. Of course, locally higher amounts are likely given the nature of the convection. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Dry weather finally returns this weekend. Upper ridging builds over the eastern seaboard behind the departing upper level trough This will result in lower PW values and a markedly drier, more comfortable airmass building across the region over the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly below normal through Saturday with most areas in the 80s. Lows mainly in the 60s this weekend, with some upper 50s possible well inland Sunday morning. Moisture return does slowly begin to set in early next week, as an upper level shortwave lifts north/northeast across from the southern plains into the western Great Lakes by Mon-Tue of next week. Showers return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon along the pre-frontal trough ahead of the next frontal passage for the middle of next week. Temperatures remain near or just below climo Sat/Sun, before moderating back toward normal by midweek. Highs in the mid to upper 80s/around 90 Mon-Wed, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... Mainly VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 18z period, though some pockets of stratus have resulted in some lingering stratus along the coast. Do expect degrading flight conditions this afternoon into the evening, with another round of aftn/evening tstms. Some scattered showers will be at RIC/SBY over the next few hours, with the best chances for convection will be at ORF/ECG/PHF for the late afternoon and evening. Have maintained VCTS during this time frame. After showers briefly taper off, another round of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected late tonight, which should then persist into much of Thu AM. Winds remain S-SW at ~10 kt through the period. Outlook: After a brief lull, another round of showers and storms develops across (mainly) SE coastal terminals Thursday afternoon. Brief flight restrictions for both CIGs and VSBY will be possible. Thereafter, unsettled conditions continue through Friday, with another chance for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms. Rain chances diminish, with VFR/dry conditions returning this weekend, then persist into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through the period, although thunderstorms are possible each day through Friday (mainly during the afternoon/evening). The Bermuda high remains in place well offshore today. The stationary front that has been hanging around the local area is cutting through central VA as of latest sfc analysis with a weak area of low pressure along the front to the N. Latest wind observations indicate SW winds of 10-15kt over local waters. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are 1-2ft. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, which could bring elevated winds/waves and heavy rain. Later tonight, SW winds will once again pick up to ~15kt with gusts to 20kt, diminishing back to ~10kt Thurs morning. Winds stay around 10kt through the day. Additional storms are likely, but highest coverage looks to be over the lower bay/James and southern coastal waters. A cold front will push S through the region Thurs night/Fri morning. Behind it, winds turn to the N, then NE. Not expecting any surge behind the front, so winds will stay in the 5-10kt range. High pressure will build in through the weekend, its center staying to the N of local waters. Onshore flow at 5-10kt will persist through the weekend. Seas may temporarily build toward 4ft tonight as winds pick up, especially out near 20nm. Seas fall back to 2ft through the day Thurs and stay at 2ft through the weekend. Waves in the bay will be 2-3ft tonight, then 1-2ft Thurs. Waves will generally be 1ft or less Fri through the weekend, with the exception of 1-2ft waves in the mouth of the bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM LONG TERM...ERI/MAM AVIATION...ERI/MAM MARINE...AM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 358 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092- 093-095>098-509>525-252000- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford- Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans- Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland- Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland- Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville- Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth- Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 358 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain this afternoon through this evening. This rainfall could lead to a few instances of flash flooding, expecially in urban or other flood prone areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. An unsettled pattern continues through Thursday with continued potential for heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ025-VAZ099-100-252000- Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton- 358 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain this afternoon through this evening, which could lead to a few instances of flash flooding, expecially in urban or other flood prone areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. An unsettled pattern continues through Thursday with continued potential for heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
VAZ061-062-069-510-241900-
Goochland VA-Powhatan VA-Cumberland VA-Eastern Louisa VA-
208 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISA...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN GOOCHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN POWHATAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from near Goochland to near Cumberland. Movement was east
at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Reduced visibility and minor flooding possible.
Locations impacted include...
Goochland, Cartersville, Gum Spring, Fife, Trenholm, Lakeside
Village, Duncan, Oilville, Rock Castle, Oak Forest, Maidens, Three
Square, Irwin, Whiteville, Michaux, West View, Othma, Pemberton,
Hatchers, and Trents Mill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3764 7825 3768 7824 3770 7823 3784 7786
3767 7777 3748 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 259DEG 26KT 3771 7785 3753 7827
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
MMSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 VAZ062-064-069-511>513-515>518-242000- Goochland VA-Eastern Hanover VA-Western Chesterfield VA- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond) VA- Western King William VA-Western Hanover VA-Eastern King William VA- Powhatan VA-Eastern Henrico VA-Caroline VA- 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD... SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINE...NORTHWESTERN HENRICO...NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM...SOUTHERN HANOVER AND EAST CENTRAL POWHATAN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND THROUGH 400 PM EDT... At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms over Manakin, or near Tuckahoe, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Heavy rain. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Reduced visibility and minor flooding possible. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Tuckahoe, Laurel, Wyndham, and Glen Allen around 305 PM EDT. Ashland around 315 PM EDT. Randolph Macon College around 320 PM EDT. Hanover around 330 PM EDT. Mangohick around 340 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this storm include Enfield, Gum Tree, Johnsons Springs, Elmont, Etna Mills, Epworth, Gilman, Solomons Store, Chamberlayne, and Atlee. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3794 7721 3764 7707 3747 7772 3771 7782 TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 246DEG 26KT 3764 7768 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH TG
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0351 PM Flash Flood 1 SE Solomons Store 37.63N 77.45W
07/24/2024 Henrico VA Dept of Highways
Standing water on I-95 at mile marker 83.
&&
ButnerPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
406 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0359 PM Flash Flood 1 SE Lakeside 37.61N 77.46W
07/24/2024 Henrico VA Dept of Highways
Standing water on I-95 at mile marker 81.
&&
ButnerThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
VDOT reported a fallen tree in the vicinity of Drew Street.
The 911 call center reported a fallen tree across I-85 at mile marker 34.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1206303, 1206304.