NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 2:48 PM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 2:48 PM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
348 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...A winter-like storm will impact the region through
Saturday morning. A strong cold front will cross the region
Thursday evening into Friday morning. Significant mountain snow
is expected, along with widespread valley rain. High pressure
will build back into the region Sunday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Sunday)...A significant winter-like storm
system will impact the forecast area through the short term
period. Presently, the cold front which pushed through northern
Utah/southwest Wyoming overnight stretches across central Utah,
with the trailing 700mb baroclinic zone stretching from the Uintas
back to near Ely NV. Scattered convection along and ahead of this
baroclinic zone has produced small hail along with occasional
lightning, and this will likely persist into the evening hours.
Looking upstream, a vigorous shortwave trough is digging into the
western Great Basin, with the associated cold front accompanied by
widespread precipitation noted across northern NV. As this wave
digs through NV tonight, the associated frontal zone will surge
across the forecast area, bringing widespread valley rain and
mountain snow. The best forcing and low level cold air will track
through west central and southwest Utah this evening into the
overnight hours, where the heaviest precipitation is expected to
bank up against the terrain along/east of I-15. 700mb temps across
southwest/west central Utah will fall to -8C overnight, and
combined with high precip rates anticipate snow levels to fall to
the valley floors from Fillmore to Cedar City. Although surface
temperatures remain quite warm for mid October, snowfall rates
will likely allow for slushy accumulation at times along roadways,
as well as considerable accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces
and could result in tree damage to trees which still have leaves.
As such have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into these
locations for tonight through Friday morning.
With much colder air spreading over northern Utah and the GSL (and
other lakes) running roughly 10F above normal, expect lake
enhanced snowfall primarily impacting locations south of the GSL
and potentially Utah Lake as well. This would mainly impact
far western Salt Lake Valley into the Oquirrh range. Heavier
precipitation could drag snow levels down to the west benches
with some accumulation possible on grassy/elevates surfaces.
Otherwise, 12Z guidance was in good agreement with previous
forecasts, so not much change to the overall forecast snowfall
totals, and going winter headlines seem to cover the situation
well.
With the upper low eventually closing off and tracking across
northern AZ late Friday into Saturday, A period of easterly to
east-northeasterly flow will likely become established across
northern Utah. Previous guidance was in strong agreement with this
scenario, however some 12Z guidance including the GFS has trended
much weaker with the low level cold advection and keeps a more
northerly component to the wind field. That said, as we move into
the hi-res window all 12Z HREF members indicate at least advisory
level downslope winds develop along the northern Wasatch Front,
with some members including the HRRR producing warning level
winds. As such have gone with a High Wind Watch for this area,
with the peak winds expected Friday evening.
Lastly, with the much colder airmass moving into the region many
locations which have yet to experience a freeze this year will see
their first sub-freezing temperatures. Going Freeze warnings for
west central/southwest Utah along with the Sevier/Sanpete Valleys
remains in effect, and these locations should see their first
freeze tonight and particularly Friday night. Temperature guidance
has trended a bit warmer, particularly across Castle Country,
where it's looking less likely min temps reach the freezing mark
Friday night. Have maintained the Freeze Watch for these areas,
although it appears cloud cover may keep some of these locations
from reaching the freezing mark.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday)...The upper low remains over
Arizona at the beginning of the long-term forecast period. It will
then slowly eject across the Four Corners region through the day
Sunday before exiting across Colorado Sunday night. Cluster
analysis of model ensembles show good agreement with this timing
and track, with only very subtle differences between the clusters.
As such, expect some lingering precipitation wrapping around the
low (in the form of valley rain and mountain snow), affecting
mainly eastern Utah, through the day Sunday. Temperatures will
warm slightly from Saturday as cloud cover gradually decreases.
Heading into the early through middle part of the week, a low-
amplitude ridge will build into the area. However, there are some
indications that a shortwave trough will pass by to the north,
bringing more zonal flow to the area. Any impacts to the weather
should remain relatively minor, most likely bringing some additional
cloud cover to the area while briefly slowing down an otherwise
warming and drying trend. Speaking of the warming trend, afternoon
max temperatures are forecast to reach around 5-10 degrees above
normal by Tuesday or Wednesday. However, overnight mins, while
generally above normally, will remain cold enough for frost or a
light freeze in some of the normally colder valleys.
Thereafter, models indicate a storm will be brewing off the West
Coast near 130-135W by Thursday morning. Depending on how far east
this storm will be positioned, southwest flow could potentially
increase over Utah by Thursday afternoon. Most models do want to
weaken this storm before moving it inland next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail during
the remainder of the afternoon at the SLC terminal with ceilings
near 7000 feet AGL. Rain will become more widespread as the front
approaches between 03Z and 05Z, bringing a return of prevailing
MVFR conditions through the overnight hours. West to northwest
winds will prevail, becoming stronger with the front. However, in
the vicinity of showers the terminal will see some erratic wind
directions, with speeds generally expected to remain at or below
seven knots. There is a 30 percent chance of IFR conditions
developing for a time in rain or a mix of rain and snow in heavier
rates with the passage of the front.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Currently seeing prevailing
VFR conditions across the airspace with some pockets of MVFR/IFR
conditions in scattered rain and snow showers. Rain and snow will
increase over northern and western Utah early this evening as a
stronger cold front moves through, resulting in more widespread
rain and snow with lowering snow levels, and thus more widespread
MVFR and IFR conditions. Overnight, as the front continues
southeast, the precipitation will spread into much of central and
southern Utah, further increasing coverage of MVFR and IFR
conditions. West to northwest winds will prevail over northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming, increasing for a time with the front.
Over southern Utah, occasionally gusty southerly winds will shift
to the northwest with the frontal passage.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A cold Pacific storm system moving into the Great
Basin will bring much colder temperatures along with widespread
valley rain and mountain snow across much of Utah through the
remainder of the week. The main cold front currently crossing
northern Nevada will push through Utah tonight, ushering much
colder air into the region and dropping snow levels to near 5000
feet. Widespread valley rain and mountain snow will develop along
and behind this front, persisting overnight and through much of
the day Friday. Precipitation will linger across portions of
southern Utah into the day Saturday before the low pressure system
exits the area. A drying and warming trend will follow for the
early to middle portion of next week as temperatures return to
near normal.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
UTZ103-106-114-120.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday
for UTZ104-116-122.
High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
for UTZ104.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT
Friday for UTZ110.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Friday night for UTZ111.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for UTZ112.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Friday night for UTZ113.
Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for
UTZ115-116-118-119-122.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday
for UTZ117-125.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday
for WYZ021.
&&
Seaman/Cheng/Traphagan
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