The Leota Fire started in early to mid April from human causes 14 miles east-southeast of Randlett in the Ouray Wildlife Refuge Area.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
The Leota Fire started in early to mid April from human causes 14 miles east-southeast of Randlett in the Ouray Wildlife Refuge Area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 10, 4:20 PM MST, 29 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clouds and a few light showers remain possible through this evening across the northern and central Colorado mountains. - High pressure builds in tomorrow, with dry weather, clear skies, and warming temperatures into the weekend. - Unsettled weather returns next week, along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The weak wave and modest jet in the northwesterly flow aloft have kept clouds and the occasional light shower going over the northern and central mountains today. Little, if any, precipitation has been reaching the ground thanks to dry air at the surface. This activity will continue through the afternoon before tapering off this evening. Elsewhere, abundant sunshine and clear to mostly clear skies are in control. Cooler northwest flow has kept temperatures near normal today. High pressure begins to build in tonight, with clear skies expected to dominate through the end of the week. This will promote good radiational cooling overnight, with near normal lows expected by daybreak. However, warm air advection really kicks in tomorrow, with high temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees warmer than today. That puts lower valleys in the low to mid 70s, high valleys in the 60s, and mountain towns in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overall, tomorrow is expected to be a very pleasant spring day, with generally light winds aside from some afternoon gustiness, and clear skies. Lows tomorrow night are expected to be a bit milder, as strong warm air advection competes with favorable radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The ridge axis will shift east of the Divide on Friday, allowing southwest flow to ramp up the warming. Some mid-level moisture will become entrained in this southwest flow as a weak shortwave tracks through the Four Corners Friday evening. The low levels are so dry and models are not very excited about precipitation even though some mid level clouds are generated so aside from scattered mid level clouds, could see some virga showers that would help enhance wind gusts at the surface. Conditions will be breezy at times and the big story really is the warming on Friday as enough mixing should allow highs to soar 15 degrees above normal. We are talking 70s for the higher valleys and low 80s for the lower valleys of west-central Colorado, east-central Utah and southeast Utah. The increasing mid- level moisture shouldn't put much of a damper on the WAA as clouds will be scattered with sun having a good chance to break through, especially in the afternoon. Skies will clear this weekend, leading to mostly sunny skies as southwest flow strengthens ahead of a closed low moving into the Great Basin. Temperatures this weekend won't quite be as warm as Friday, however they will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal and feel quite warm. While winds won't be nearly as windy as last week, we are still going to be noticably gusty with gusts in the 30s possible. This aforementioned closed low becomes pinched off from the main flow and models are struggling with how quickly this low moves inland and progresses across the area. The GFS is the slowest at this time, coming across as an open wave trough Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The Euro, which was showing precip as early as Sunday evening is now falling in line with the slower GFS and tracking this system across Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning as an open wave. The Canadian, for what it's worth, is still holding onto the earlier onset Sunday evening for precipitation. This time of year, the slower solution tends to win out with these types of systems and of course, there is still lots of uncertainty despite the Euro coming into better agreement with the GFS timing. Having said that, the forecasted snowfall amounts have come down quite significantly since earlier this week and have been trending that way each model run...which is interesting to note. At this time, the northern and central Colorado mountains appear favored for accumulating snowfall Monday through Tuesday with this system with high snow levels. Even though temps cool down, they will still be near normal for Monday and Tuesday...going from 70s for the lower valleys this weekend to 60s, which is still rather mild. Beyond that, both models have another low dropping in from the northwest behind this next one for the mid week timeframe. Still a lot of details to sort out with this next system but it appears like the timing and overall trend is starting to come into better agreement. Very warm and dry rest of this week into the weekend, turning cooler and unsettled next week. Just how unsettled and how widespread the showers will be remains a big question mark. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Clouds will persist along the Divide through much of the evening before skies clear for Wednesday. All the same, CIGS will remain above ILS breakpoints with VFR prevailing through the period. Some breezy conditions persist through approximately 03Z before redeveloping after 18Z on Wednesday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 314 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-110915- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 314 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Snow showers across the northern Colorado mountains continue today before tapering off this evening. Expect minor snow accumulations up to an inch or two, particularly in the Park Range. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Warm and dry weather then prevails through the rest of the week before another storm arrives either late this weekend or early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
422 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow Oak Creek 40.27N 106.96W
04/10/2024 M1.5 Inch Routt CO Cocorahs
Cocorahs station CO-RT-64 Oak Creek 0.4 W.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Leota Fire started in early to mid April from human causes 14 miles east-southeast of Randlett in the Ouray Wildlife Refuge Area. The fire grew to 137 acres before being contained the day after it started.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, April 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1180577.