Subsident ridging took control over South Texas in May 8-9th as 850mb temperatures neared climatological max values and mixed down to the surface. Heat index values ranged from 110-118 mainly along and west of Interstate 37 and US-77.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
Subsident ridging took control over South Texas in May 8-9th as 850mb temperatures neared climatological max values and mixed down to the surface. Heat index values ranged from 110-118 mainly along and west of Interstate 37 and US-77.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 8, 5:30 AM CST, 6 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
630 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Messages:
▶ A Heat Advisory is in effect today across Inland Kleberg, Inland
Nueces, and Jim Wells Counties
▶ Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts with near record
high temperatures Thursday
South Texas will remain under a quasi-zonal flow aloft for the
short term period with a mid-level low well to our north and a
mid- level high over western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, an
approaching dryline will result in light and variable winds from S
to W today with onshore flow returning tonight. Winds will be
light and variable Thursday as a weak cold front approaches the
region. Elevated heat indices will result in dangerous heat
Wednesday and Thursday.
Clearing skies will help surface temperatures rise and combined with
low-level humidity will result in a pretty high (60-90%) chance for
dangerous heat indices exceeding 110 degrees according to the HREF
ensemble for Wednesday. Thursday, the HREF has a moderate 40-55%
chance for heat indices greater than 110. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for Nueces, Jim Wells and Kleberg Counties from 18z Wednesday
- 00z Thursday. Locales outside of the Advisory area can expect Heat
Indices of 105 to 109 both days for a few hours in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Weak cold front Friday morning
▶ Low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, increasing
to a low to moderate (30-40%) chance Saturday through Monday
We open up the long term with some relief from the heat in sight. A
cold front will be moving south across the state Thursday night into
Friday morning. The latest suite of guidance still has some timing
differences regarding FROPA. For now, it seems like a mid morning
passage on Friday. However, the GFS brings it through by daybreak
while the NAM12 is about 6-10 hours slower. Despite above normal
moisture in place, our rain chances don't look too great on Friday.
Will carry a slight chance, generally across the Brush Country, as a
H7 vort max ejects across the Rio Grande. The front looks to stall
across our southern tier of counties or perhaps just to our south
Friday night.
On Saturday, this boundary will retreat back to the north-northwest
as a warm front. PWATs will climb to near 2" over the weekend in the
wake of the warm front. A series of passing shortwaves will allow
for a 20-30% chance of showers and storms on Saturday and a 20-40%
chance of Sunday. As we head into the work week, the main trough
will swing across the Plains. As the trough moves through, a surge
of high pressure will nudge the boundary back our way. It's unclear
how far south the boundary will drift at this time. Therefore, only
have a 20-35% chance of showers and storms on Monday. We hang on to
some low end PoPs through the middle of next week as the upper
levels remain fairly active. However, moisture may be limited and
could hinder our chances.
A much needed cool down is in store this weekend as highs looks to
top out in the mid 80s. Unfortunately, this won't last long as temps
quickly rebound by early next week with highs settling back into the
upper 80s to around 100 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Currently have a mix of IFR at COT and MVFR all other terminals.
Expecting these conditions to continue through the morning hours
before returning to VFR conditions. Winds will be variable
throughout the day in response to an approaching frontal boundary.
MVFR CIG's expected again tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Weak to moderate onshore winds can be expected Tonight through
Thursday night along with some patchy fog. A cold front will move
offshore Friday morning. Winds will shift to the northeast and
strengthen to moderate levels Friday through Saturday morning.
Winds begin to shift back to the east-southeast through Saturday
afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, increasing to a medium 30 to 40 percent
chance Sunday through Monday as a series of upper level
disturbances pass through.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 95 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 91 74 94 73 / 0 0 10 0
Laredo 107 78 109 76 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 100 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 87 77 88 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 103 77 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 98 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 88 78 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ241>243.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...BF/80The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 heat, 3 excessive heat. Local standard time, as filed.
Inland Kleberg County experienced heat index values of 110-116 according to KNQI and KIKG.
Jim Wells observed heat index values of 110-113.
Inland Kleberg observed heat index values of 115-120 through the afternoon.
Inland Nueces County observed heat index values of around 115 through the afternoon.
Jim Wells observed heat index values of 115-120 through the afternoon.
Coastal Nueces County observed heat index values of 110-114.
Inland San Patricio observed heat index values of 110-114.
Live Oak observed heat index values of 110-115.
Webb observed heat index values of 110-112.
La Salle observed heat index values of 110-112.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1187114, 1187115, 1187116, 1187117, 1187118, 1187120, 1187121, 1187123, 1187124, 1187125.