Excessive Heat and Heat in Texas, May 21 to 25, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
601 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

- Major to Extreme heat risk, with heat index values 110-114
  expected today

Heat continues to be the main concern for our forecast for today
and Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 90s along the
coast to around 105 over the Brush Country. Heat index values will
soar to 110-114 over most of South Texas. A Heat Advisory will be
in effect from 1 PM to 7 PM today. A few locations, especially in
the inland southern Coastal Bend, could have index values reach
115+, which may result in an Excessive Heat Warning. The stifling
heat will return again Wednesday, with another Heat Advisory
possible. Stay hydrated, wear loose, light clothes, and take lots
of breaks if you must be outdoors. Also, remember to take care of your
pets in this heat--bring them inside, give them plenty of water
and shelter.

Hazy conditions are expected today and Wednesday as fires continue
to burn well to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the
weekend and into early next week.

The overall pattern looks to continue to stagnate through into the
next week. However, that isn't to say that it will be the same
everyday, but for the most part it looks like it will be hot with
high humidity, and maybe there is a chance for rain every couple of
days near the forecast area borders briefly, before things "dry
out". I put dry out in quotes, because the rain chances end, but the
humidity will remain high. So Wednesday night, models have some
showers and thunderstorms north of Asherton and Dilley moving NE
into the EWX forecast area. There are chances for rain that are 5-
10% along our border with EWX, but they move out by 7am (12z/Thu) so
that the chances fall to 0%. So, Thursday and Friday are dry as
well, but another shortwave moves along through the jet to the
north, and brings another 5-10% chance of rain along our border with
EWX Saturday morning, only for it to move northeast out of the
region. Monday, has a small chance (5-10%) for something again
before moving out. The only reason that I mention the 5-10% days, is
that there are a few models that are in the NBM that are probably
much higher in chances. So these are days to watch if those members
produce anything.

However, the temperatures and humidity are the main concern.
Temperatures, under the ridge, begin to increase each day into the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the temperatures are
Sunday, Monday with the 100 reaching to near the Coastal Bend.
However, Saturday, out west (western Brush Country, and Rio Grande
Plains will be 105-110. Tuesday, temperatures "cool" to 100-105 in
the western Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains as a shortwave
looks to move into south Texas.  Dewpoints for Thursday through next
Monday are expected to be 70F in the Rio Grande Plains to the around
80F along the Coastal Bend. So to couple the high humidity to the
hot temperatures, the heat index values begin to climb each day as
well. Thursday will be 110-113, with some heat advisory areas.
Friday will be close with the first heat warning of the year, but we
may not hold the 115 long enough to actually get to the criteria.
Saturday, Sunday and Monday are definite heat warning days if these
conditions persist as we get and stay above 115F for areas along the
Coastal Bend, and areas out west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Generally MVFR conditions start this morning's TAF period, but
expect periods of VFR conditions even early today. VFR conditions
will prevail over South Texas around or just later than midday.
Winds could get breezy at times, with gusts to around 25 knots
possible. Otherwise, hot and dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow will persist through
tonight, when winds will become moderate. A generally moderate
onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. Expect
periods of moderate to strong onshore flow each afternoon for
Thursday through Sunday across the southern bays and nearshore
waters south of Port Aransas. Hazy conditions will linger at times
through the week as fires continue to burn to our south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  93  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          93  78  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           105  79 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  78  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          88  79  89  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          102  79 103  79 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        95  79  95  79 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  80  90  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229>231-239>244.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...LS/77