Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered convection has arrived across our NW zones with more
isolated activity farther south and east so forecast adjustments
were made to both temperature and PoP grids to account for these
trends. In this case, the slightly faster progression of showers
and thunderstorms into the region led to an increase in PoPs for
our W/NW zones while high temperatures were trimmed by several
degrees across most of these same areas. As a result, look for a
range of mid 70s across much of the NW and mid to upper 80s in
our far SE zones which are still largely void of cloud cover and
convection late this morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast appears to be on track through this afternoon.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface high pressure has started to push east of the region,
allowing southerly winds to return into the area. Mid and high
clouds have also moved into the region, which has held overnight
temps several degrees warmer than the previous night. Although the
main system expected to produce rainfall over the next 36-48
hours hasn't quite arrived yet, a weak disturbance ahead of it has
already started to produced some convection across portions of
north and central Texas. This activity is quickly moving
northeast, and will move into portions of our East Texas counties
before daybreak. Short-term progs suggest this convection will
diminish by mid morning once it gets into our Louisiana parishes.

For today, flow aloft will remain southwesterly in response to a
closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A potent disturbance is expected to
move out of western Texas into Central Texas and eventually
towards Northern Louisiana, bringing rain back into the region
during the afternoon and evening hours today. With PWATs
forecasted to be over 2 inches, rainfall could be moderate to
heavy at times. Models still suggest this heavy rainfall axis
will develop along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Unfortunately, this is where the heaviest rainfall fell a couple
days ago, so WPC has highlighted this with a Moderate and High
Risk potential for Excessive Rainfall in the aforementioned
areas. A Flood Watch has also been issued for counties and
parishes generally along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor
through 7 PM Friday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, some
severe weather will be possible mainly in the same areas. Shear
and high CAPE should support the development of some super cells
with initial develop this afternoon just west of the area. Progs
suggest this convection will eventually form into a decent MCS,
possibly moving across our Deep East Texas and adjacent Central
Louisiana zones. All modes of severe weather would be possible,
but damaging winds appear the greatest threat.

The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move out the region
by late this evening, but we could see some lingering convection
hang around after midnight tonight and through sunrise Friday
morning. I think we may see a break in activity during the
morning hours Friday, before more convection is expected to
develop as the trough and associated cold front move into the
region. With an unstable environment in place, severe storms could
be possible again, but it looks like the threat will shift to our
eastern Louisiana zones. Again, all modes would be in play.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The severe weather threat should end on Friday, but convection
could linger into Saturday with the upper trough, as it will be
slow to exit the region. Dry conditions will return Sunday and
through the first portion of next week, as upper ridging is
expected to quickly build into the region on the heels of the
trough. With dry conditions in place, temperatures are expected to
climb well above normal. Afternoon highs are forecast to top out
in the lower 90s during this period. The center of the ridge will
shift south of the region by the middle of next week. This will
allow a cold front to try to move into the region during this
time, but the ridge will likely have enough influence to keep the
front from advancing through the entire region. With the boundary
stalled over the area, rain chances are forecasted to return by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a large rain shield is edging to our
air space with VCTS to be tempoed at sites on down our I-20
corridor with KTYR amended already fresh out of the gate. We have
had enough mid and upper deck with some showers stabilizing N of
I-20 with embedded/elevated TS along and to the north. Farther
south, sfc based convection will bring down gusty winds toward
KLFK only. Look for IFR to replace MVFR overnight with a deary
start to Friday. The parent low swings by early Sat and we'll see
a much improved fcst by midday & through the next week hot&dry.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  68  83  68 /  60  90  30  20
MLU  87  66  83  67 /  30  90  50  30
DEQ  76  63  80  62 /  40  70  50  20
TXK  82  66  82  66 /  50  70  40  20
ELD  85  64  81  63 /  30  80  40  30
TYR  80  67  82  66 /  80  80  20  10
GGG  81  67  82  66 /  70  80  20  20
LFK  83  67  83  67 /  90  80  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ136-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
502 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-137-138-171015-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-
Gregg-Harrison-
502 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to return today,
as the next system pushes into the region. Rainfall amounts up to an
inch will be possible, with isolated higher amounts in some locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on
Friday and Saturday. In addition, an isolated strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out during this timeframe. Otherwise,
improving weather conditions are expected by Sunday and through
early next week, with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s.
Additional rain chances may return on Wednesday with another weak
cool front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Today and Friday.

LAZ010>014-017>022-TXZ136-149>153-165>167-171015-
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-
Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Smith-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
502 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana,
northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Moderate to heavy rainfall will return to the area today, as the
next system pushes into the region. Another 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated higher amounts, will be possible in some
locations. With a Moderate to High Excessive rainfall risk in place
today, a Flood Watch has been issued from this afternoon through
Friday evening. In addition, the threat for some strong to severe
storms exist today. All modes of severe weather will be possible,
but damaging winds will be the highest threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on
Friday and Saturday. In addition, a few strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this timeframe. Otherwise, improving
weather conditions are expected by Sunday and through early next
week, with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Additional rain
chances may return on Wednesday with another weak cool front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Today and Friday.

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
111 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

TXZ152-153-161845-
Nacogdoches TX-Shelby TX-
111 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES AND
WEST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woden, or 8 miles southeast of Nacogdoches, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nacogdoches, Garrison, Melrose, Woden, Martinsville, Appleby, and
Stockman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3145 9448 3150 9468 3184 9460 3185 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 195DEG 37KT 3156 9456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

15