Very hot temperatures on the afternoon of the 25th led to a deeply mixed boundary layer producing sufficient instability and minimal capping for thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms initially developed along a weak surface boundary in the Texas Panhandle and then moved southward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Very hot temperatures on the afternoon of the 25th led to a deeply mixed boundary layer producing sufficient instability and minimal capping for thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms initially developed along a weak surface boundary in the Texas Panhandle and then moved southward. One of these storms produced a severe wind gust near Happy (Swisher County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 5:12 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across South Plains. At the surface, elongated troughing remains fixed across the Desert Southwest with resultant southwesterly surface flow locally. Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Hi-res models this afternoon have precipitation across the NW portions of the area just shy of 00Z and are also depicting a weakly organized grouping of storms moving into the Childress area and points southward after 01Z. Ingredients (dewpoints in the upper 60s and HREF mean SBCAPEs of near 1000 J/kg) will be in place for storms to become strong with an isolated severe or two if the activity focuses across the western South Plains. The main impacts will be strong winds, locally heavy rainfall and hail up to one inch. SPC has included areas north of Lubbock in a marginal (1 out of 4) risk for this activity. Tonight's low temperatures will fall into the 70s area wide with mostly clear skies. Tomorrow strong solar insolation under sunny skies will aid in temperatures climbing above the century mark across the entire area, with the Rolling Plains seeing temperatures as high as 104F. Increased temperatures in combination with elevated dewpoints will create heat index values over 105F across the portions of the Rolling Plains tomorrow...will likely need a Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Heat is the story of the week, with a major upper level ridge moving overhead for the majority of the upcoming week, transitioning into a more zonal flow by Friday as a upper-level trough moves through the Northern Plains. Strong positive temperature anomalies are expected to accompany this ridge, along with above average moisture with dewpoints remaining in the low 60s for the forecast period. This can be primarily attributed to the southerly surface winds that persist for the foreseeable future. Most of the Caprock will be pushing triple digit heat index values until Saturday, where temperatures will lower slightly through the weekend and into early next week. Off the Caprock, heat index values will be easily into the triple digits, with a heat index of 105 or greater expected until Sunday. Thursday and Friday will be the hottest of the period, occurring right before the ridge transitions into a more zonal pattern. Luckily, storm chances exist on Wednesday and Saturday, which may bring some relief to these hot temperatures. Wednesday afternoon storms may develop along the higher terrain in New Mexico. Weak north northwest flow aloft will give way to slow storm motion. The upper ridge Wednesday evening will slide southward with a weak shortwave that may help to push storms into the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Any storm that develops will be capable of strong wind gusts with a very dry and well-mixed boundary layer. Storm chances increase again Saturday thanks to modest dewpoints in combination with surface convergence along a trough that develops in New Mexico. Potential storms could be aided by the possibility of a shortwave trough that move through. Storm coverage remains uncertain, however likelihood of precipitation is highest in the northwest area of our domain, where a surface front may stall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR expected to prevail through this TAF period. Isolated TS will continue well to the west of LBB/PVW and well to the north of CDS over the next several hours. The chance of convection impacting any TAF site is nonzero, but the probability is much too low to include TAF mention at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 206 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 TXZ021>044-261915- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 206 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the extreme southeastern Panhandle and parts of the northern Rolling Plains from 1 PM until 8 PM. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the extreme southern Panhandle and portions of the western South Plains late this afternoon through this evening could become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts to around 60 mph the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Heat index values of 105 to 108 will be possible across the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain in the forecast for portions of the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains and Rolling Plains for Wednesday and Saturday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
553 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
TXZ027-252315-
Bailey TX-
553 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BAILEY COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM CDT...
At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Arch, or 20 miles southeast of Portales, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Bailey
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3413 10304 3409 10285 3387 10288 3390 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 296DEG 14KT 3405 10304
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKThe Amarillo radar (KAMA), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:07 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Happy measured a severe wind gust of 59 mph. Additionally, tree limbs one inch in diameter were reportedly broken off.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1184209.