Excessive Heat in Texas, July 4, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Cold front continues to move across northern OK this morning. This
front is expected to be in the vicinity of I-40 late this
afternoon and will be the focus for storm development late
afternoon into this evening. Severe storms will be possible with
damaging winds, due to inverted-v profiles, and maybe some hail as
the primary concerns. However, even if a storm is not severe,
cloud to ground lightning will also pose a risk with all the
outdoor activities going on today.

Heat is another risk for today, especially for those areas that
will remain ahead of the front until later this evening. The hot
and humid conditions will lead to heat index values of 105+ across
a large part of the fa. In southern OK and western north TX, heat
index values of 110+ will be possible so these portions of the
heat advisory were upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for this
afternoon into early evening.

So for those doing outdoor activities today prepare for the hot
and humid conditions but also be aware that mother nature will
likely be providing some fireworks of her own later today so keep
an eye on the sky and be prepared to take shelter if need be from
the storms. Otherwise, Happy 4th of July!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main weather stories today will be thunderstorms with potential
to impact outdoor holiday events and the continuation of dangerous
heat across much of the area.

Starting with the heat, heat indices are expected to once again
reach 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon across all but northwest
Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. A heat advisory is in effect for
these areas and those with outdoor plans this afternoon are
reminded to stay hydrated and take breaks from the direct sun when
possible.

The aforementioned cold front will be the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development, as early as 2 pm but most likely between 4
to 11 pm. Most of the CAMs suggest that development will occur first
across west-central into north-central Oklahoma and progress
southward through the evening, likely impacting July 4th
celebrations and fireworks displays across portions of southwest
into central Oklahoma. Please see our graphics for more detailed
timing info.

Given an environment characterized by PWATs at or above 2" and DCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/KG, the main hazard with these storms will be strong
to severe downburst winds. Lightning will also of course be a
major concern for outdoor events this afternoon and evening. In
addition to damaging winds, hail up to the size of golfballs will
also be possible with the stronger storms. Finally, given high
PWAT values storms will have the potential for heavy rainfall.

Models suggest that additional storms could develop later tonight,
mainly after midnight, across central and southern Oklahoma as the
low-level jet and warm advection increases to the north of the
surface boundary. This activity would also pose a risk for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding, but storm coverage is a bit more
uncertain with this round.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and storms will linger into Friday morning across central
into southern portions of the area, with activity shifting
southward through the day as the front continues its progress into
Texas. Much welcome relief from the triple digit temperatures is
expected behind the front on Friday, with highs only in the upper
80s to lower 90s areawide, along with a much drier airmass.

Near average temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend,
with below average temperatures expected early next week behind
another cold front which will move across the area Sunday and Sunday
night. This front will bring another chance for showers and storms
to much of the area. The synoptic pattern begins to somewhat
resemble the conceptual model for a predecessor rainfall event
Sunday into Monday as the right entrance region of the upper jet is
positioned over the area and moisture associated with Hurricane
Beryl pushes northward, potentially interacting with the boundary.
These synoptic details could change as we are still several days
out, but will have to watch this scenario for the potential for
heavy rainfall and flooding. WPC has placed portions of our area
under a "slight" risk for excessive rainfall during this period.
Additional rainfall chances are possible through the middle of
next week as the front washes out and tropical moisture lingers
nearby.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. A cold front will
continue to move across the area this afternoon and evening with
storms expected to develop along the front starting in central OK
and shift south with the front. Additional showers/storms will be
possible north of the front overnight into Friday morning. Winds
will also shift towards the N and NE behind the front otherwise S
to SW winds expected ahead of the boundary. Gusty, variable winds
will be possible near any storms late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  71  89  67 /  60  50  10   0
Hobart OK        103  69  90  66 /  60  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  73  91  69 /  10  50  30  10
Gage OK           90  65  87  64 /   0  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     97  65  90  65 /  20  20   0   0
Durant OK        101  74  91  69 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013-
     017>030-033-034.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-
     032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051615-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1103 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances increase across parts of the area this
afternoon and evening along a cold front. Some of these storms
could be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main
concern. Cloud to ground lightning will also be a concern with any
thunderstorm.

Thunderstorm chances will continue into early Friday but the
severe potential is expected to diminish late this evening or
overnight.

.Heat...
Hot and humid conditions continue today with heat indices of 105
to 112 degrees expected for all but northwest Oklahoma this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances linger into Friday across central and
southern Oklahoma. Additional chances for storms return Sunday
into early next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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