Damaging Wind in Texas, August 4, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
526 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Dry air arrives from the east on Monday with storm chances
focused west of the Continental Divide for much of the week.
Temperatures remain a few degrees above average into the second
half of the week. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Just like yesterday, scattered showers and storms are ongoing in
the mountains with the potential for gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. The activity will drift southward but should
struggle to make it into the lowlands before dissipating around
sunset.

Dry, continental air moves in for tomorrow behind the inverted
trough/easterly wave that passes to the south of the region around
the ridge axis. This disturbance doesn't look to be a factor in
the short term as most of the moisture and lift remain in northern
Mexico. However, some of the forcing should spark a few stronger
storms west of the Divide tomorrow afternoon downstream of the
shortwave. Gusts to 50 mph and small hail are possible in addition
to blowing dust along I-10 west of Lordsburg into the evening.

We lose all synoptic forcing on Tuesday on the backside of the
trough while dry air continues to filter in from the east. With
some lingering moisture out west, storm chances will hang around
through Wednesday closer to the AZ border. PWs will decrease to
about 25% lower than normal into the middle of the week along and
east of the Rio Grande with only a slight chance of showers in
the Sacs. The high pressure drifts a bit to the south over the
southern High Plains later in the week, keeping the generally dry
pattern in place. Depending on where the high sets up, eastern
areas may have slightly better storm chances into next weekend.
Temperatures hold a few degrees above normal through the period,
peaking around Thursday with possible heat advisories being
hoisted for the lower RGV. Most if not all days are forecast to
reach 100 in El Paso. Ensembles indicate the hot, dry pattern
persisting through mid- August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Surface gusts up to 30 knots due to decaying outflows through 03Z
this evening, then dry weather overnight with winds AOB 08 knots.
Skies generally FEW-SCT120 with SCT-BKN250 through midnight
tonight. Low TS risk tomorrow with high pressure aloft over the
central Rockies and deeper moisture westward toward AZ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period. Storm
chances shift west of the Divide through at least midweek as dry
air moves in from the east around the elongated upper high.
Relative humidities will drop to near or just below critical
levels beginning on Monday along and east of the Rio Grande,
excluding FWZ 113. Generally light southeast winds are forecast
outside of outflows. Pockets of elevated fire danger are possible
with gustier winds in the lowlands. Temperatures remain above
normal through the period with the hottest days expected around
Thursday.

Min RHs range from 12-25% in the lowlands; 20-35% in the
mountains Monday, then 15-30%. Vent rates will be good to very
good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 100  77 101 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  90  67  93 /  20  30  10  10
Las Cruces               74  99  72 100 /  10  10  10   0
Alamogordo               69  96  67  98 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  73  50  75 /  20  20   0  10
Truth or Consequences    71  96  70  98 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City              66  91  65  92 /  30  50  30  20
Deming                   72  99  70  99 /  20  10  20   0
Lordsburg                72  98  70  98 /  30  40  50  30
West El Paso Metro       77  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0
Dell City                69  96  69  98 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             72  97  71  99 /  20  20  10  10
Loma Linda               69  90  68  92 /  20  10   0  10
Fabens                   74  97  72  98 /  20  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             74  96  72  97 /  20  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           75  97  73  98 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range            72  97  70  98 /  10  10  10   0
Hatch                    72  99  70 100 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                 75  98  73  98 /  20  10  20  10
Orogrande                71  95  68  96 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  55  84  55  86 /  10  20   0  10
Mescalero                55  85  55  87 /  20  20   0  10
Timberon                 55  83  54  84 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                  59  89  59  90 /  10  20  20  10
Hillsboro                66  95  66  95 /  10  20  20  10
Spaceport                68  96  68  98 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             60  90  60  91 /  30  60  40  30
Hurley                   66  94  65  95 /  20  30  30  10
Cliff                    66 101  66 102 /  30  50  30  30
Mule Creek               68  94  67  95 /  40  60  40  30
Faywood                  68  94  68  93 /  20  30  20  10
Animas                   72  99  70  98 /  40  30  60  40
Hachita                  71  97  68  96 /  30  20  40  20
Antelope Wells           69  96  67  95 /  30  30  40  40
Cloverdale               68  92  65  90 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt