Hot temperatures and a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) combined to create scattered thunderstorms over the western Texas Panhandle on the afternoon of the third. An MCV drifted southward out of western Kansas creating scattered thunderstorms which then moved southward into the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle during the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Hot temperatures and a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) combined to create scattered thunderstorms over the western Texas Panhandle on the afternoon of the third. An MCV drifted southward out of western Kansas creating scattered thunderstorms which then moved southward into the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle during the evening. Dry sub-cloud air layer allowed these storms to create severe downburst winds near Friona (Parmer County) and Muleshoe (Bailey County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 3, 5:14 PM CST, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 A stout upper level high centered over the Rockies continues its influence over the weather pattern in the western CONUS. The positioning of this feature is resulting in a northerly to northeasterly fetch across our part of the state. While this regime is often not conducive for storm development, there exists sufficient mid level moisture, coupled with somewhat favorable thermodynamic profiles such that we could see some storms develop and/or move through the areas west of the Caprock Escarpment. The morphology largely looks scattered though some modest organization could come about with the overnight activity. Reflecting on storm potential this afternoon and evening, we will be dealing with vertical temp/moisture profiles supportive of strong downburst winds. This would be most likely associated with the latter stages of storm life cycle. The hail threat is less likely with only modest shear and CAPE. As is the case often this time of year, storms could persist overnight and traditionally models do not handle late-summer overnight convection well at all. Thus, the potential is highlighted in the official forecast. Sometimes, this works out, sometimes not, but at least there are indications that storms could exist overnight which is a plus in and of itself. The best risk of storms through Sunday morning will be west of a Tulia to Brownfield line increasing toward the state line. After any residual storms die out Sunday morning, we should see a dry day with continued above average temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Upper level high pressure will continue to drive the forecast through the long term portion of the forecast period. This upper level high will remain centered over the Four Corners region at the end of the day Sunday but expansion eastward will already have begun with an increase in 500 mb heights and 1000-500 mb thicknesses Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in high temperatures again pushing toward 10 degrees above normals, likely peaking on Wednesday. This ridge will also keep precipitation chances at bay. Models begin to diverge some late in the week as significant troughing develops over Canada. Part one is a potential short wave trough that will dive southeastward across the Great Lakes and drive a cold front southward through the southern High Plains. The operational GFS, in particular, latches onto this scenario but remains an outlier. Given this cooler air will have to work quickly southward underneath an, albeit weaker, ridge this has low support at this time. Part two is with the strength of the ridge with as much as 3-4 dam spread in the 500 mb ridge. NBM takes a middle ground approach that trends toward climatology while the European keeps a strong ridge overhead, cooler air locked well to the north, but possibly offset some by a more easterly component to the low level flow. Will continue with the NBM for Friday and Saturday, but note the spread in possible outcomes in that period. Precipitation in the post-Wednesday period is as equally muddled as temperatures for similar reasons. The cooler GFS with its weaker ridge and possible low level frontal boundary is currently more favorable in this regard while the strong ridge and only modest upslope component are not as strong indicators. NBM focuses small 20- 30 percent PoPs across the northwestern counties Thursday through Saturday. These may end up being overdone, but for now look fine given the uncertainties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 VFR prevails for the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing west of KLBB and KPVW, with a storm motion to the south. Convection will remain clear of all terminals for the next few hours; however, chances for thunderstorms will linger throughout the overnight hours. Confidence is too low in storms affecting the terminals to include in the TAFs at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. Check density altitude. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...09
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 219 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 TXZ021>044-041930- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 219 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight hours across the South Plains region. While the threat for severe storms is low, stronger storms could produce wind gusts up to 70 mph and brief heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. High temperatures above 105 degrees are expected mostly to the east of the Caprock escarpment Tuesday through Thursday with Heat Advisories likely to be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
911 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024
TXZ021-022-040300-
Castro TX-Parmer TX-
911 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...
At 911 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles south of Buffalo
Lake to 7 miles north of Black to 3 miles east of Bellview. Movement
was south at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Dimmitt, Friona, Hart, Bovina, Farwell, Summerfield, Easter,
Lazbuddie, Oklahoma Lane, Lariat, Black, Rhea, and Nazareth.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lubbock Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3475 10200 3431 10200 3431 10304 3475 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 004DEG 22KT 3481 10211 3479 10264 3484 10305
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
SINCAVAGEThe Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:26 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Friona measured a wind gust to 58 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Muleshoe measured severe wind gusts from 2143 CST through 2147 CST. A peak wind gust of 63 mph was measured at 2143 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1189906, 1189907.