Funnel Cloud in Texas, August 28, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1257 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will prevail across
Southeast Texas during the day today and Thursday. For starters,
tranquil weather conditions over the inland portions will
continue early this morning with light winds with some patchy fog
across portions of the Piney Woods region. Later in the morning
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be pushing through areas
south of I-10, and are expected to expand further inland during
the late morning to afternoon hours. Strong storms will be capable
of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief periods
of heavy rainfall. Rain chances will ebb during the evening hours
as daytime heating and instability decrease. Fairly calm weather
expected again during the nighttime hours with partly cloudy
skies.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over much of
the local area on Thursday as a mid level disturbance over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico moves over our local waters during the
day and into or near the TX/LA border late Thursday into early
Friday. A surge in moisture is expected during the day, rising
local PWs to 2.0-2.4 inches. PVA associated with the disturbance
could to tap into this to result in periods of locally heavy
rainfall, mainly over areas near and south of I-10...and this is
where WPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4). Ponding
of water on roadways and minor localized flooding in urban and
poor drainage areas is possible. We are expecting a bit of a lull
in rain Thursday night, but will gradually increase again during
the overnight hours or early Friday morning.

Cloud coverage and rainfall will help reduce our temperatures as
highs go from the low 90s today to the upper 80s and low 90s on
Thursday. The lows will remain in the 70s inland and in the upper
70s to low 80s along the coasts.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Keep those umbrellas handy through the weekend and into next week as
the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue. The weak
upper level low will be lingering over SE Texas on Friday, which
combined with with moist onshore flow bringing PWATs to near 2-2.4"
and daytime heating will cause continued scattered showers and
storms. The upper level low begins to slowly drift eastward by late
Saturday into Sunday, which may help reduce the coverage of the
rainfall over the weekend - though it won't be rain free as the
moisture and sunshine will be enough to trigger at least some
showers. Each day will likely unfold how it has been the past few
days where showers and storms will start off near the coast in the
morning, then working their way inland through the afternoon and
evening. Most people may only see up to 0.25 to 0.5" of rain each
day, but some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Areas near
the coast will have the best chance for seeing these isolated
downpours.

Another upper level low will begin to move into the Southern Plains
early next week. Exact timing and location of it is still a bit
uncertain, but it will likely bring back higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms to the region.

The afternoon high temperatures will be staying near seasonal to
even a few degrees below normal through the long term. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the
weekend. It is possible that the Pineywoods region may only get into
the low to mid 80s by Tuesday of next week as that next disturbance
moves through. The onshore flow and cloudy skies will keep the
overnight conditions mild and muggy with low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s north of the Harris County, mid to upper 70s along the I-
10 Corridor, and low 80s along the immediate coast through the
weekend.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

VFR to a few MVFR ceilings prevail early this afternoon with only
VCSH along the coastal terminals. Expect an increase in
showers/storms later this afternoon, especially from IAH coastward
through early this evening. Confidence in occurrence is low to
moderate, but given the environment/current conditions, scattered
activity will be possible. The best chances for showers and storms
arrive late this evening into Thursday. Coastal terminals have
higher probabilities of rain/storms. A mixture of VFR to MVFR
conditions due to low ceilings and reduced visibility (due to
TSRA/SHRA) are expected through the TAF period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Onshore flow around 5 to 10kt with occasional gusts to 15kt will
continue through early next week. Seas will continue to be around 2
to 3ft as well. There will be a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the period with coverage highest during the
overnight to early morning hours and lingering into the afternoon.
There will be a lulls in the late evenings to early overnight hours
before starting repeating it all again the following day. Winds and
seas will become elevated near any isolated stronger storms.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  93  74  90  74 /  30  10  50  10
Houston (IAH)			  93  77  89  76 /  50  30  90  50
Galveston (GLS)			  90  80  89  80 /  80  60  90  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fowler