Very hot temperatures combined with a weak mid-level short wave trough creating isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the evening of the 14th. A very deeply mixed boundary layer led to a dry sub-cloud layer and high based thunderstorms.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Very hot temperatures combined with a weak mid-level short wave trough creating isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the evening of the 14th. A very deeply mixed boundary layer led to a dry sub-cloud layer and high based thunderstorms. A couple of these thunderstorms produced severe wind gusts near Plains (Yoakum County) and Olton (Lamb County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 5:04 PM CST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 604 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The current forecast is still on track for the rest of this afternoon. A cumulus field has developed in vicinity of the surface pressure trough where better low level convergence was located. Increased moisture and a short wave trough was seen approaching the area per water vapor imagery this afternoon. Isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected to be around 4-5pm with activity drifting eastward through the late afternoon into the early evening. Very high cloud bases will allow convection to produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. It is looking increasingly likely for scattered storms to develop on Thursday afternoon across the FA. A very weak trough axis around 700- 500mb was noted in model guidance approaching the area on Thursday afternoon. Little to no hints of this trough were present in the upper levels of the atmosphere as indicated by increasing heights around 250mb. This trough axis will cut across the region from southwest to northeast above an increasing low level convergent field. A cold front will be approaching from the north during the daytime stalling out somewhere around the central to southern Texas Panhandle. A surface pressure trough will extend southward near the Texas/New Mexico state line with a weak signal for a pre-frontal surface trough cutting across the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Very strong heating will occur across the area with temperatures near or above 100 degrees everywhere off the caprock and on many locations on the caprock. The atmosphere will be characterized by a typical pulse, summer type convective activity. Boundary layer mixing will reach up to around 650mb or so leading to inverted-V soundings and a dry sub-cloud layer. Deep layer mixed instability values will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg under an uncapped atmosphere. High cloud bases are expected and with weak flow, will promote pulse type convection with strong winds and locally heavy && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Hot dry weather is expected Friday though next week. The very warm upper high will remain centered over Colorado, New Mexico and northwest Texas. As such, there will be virtually no chance of rain. The highest afternoon temperatures are expected over the southeast Panhandle and the Rolling Plains where afternoon highs in excess of 105 degrees will be likely starting this Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Convection will be at least in the vicinity of LBB and PVW before 03Z. It is possible that -TSRA could affect either terminal, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. The biggest hazards will be brief wind gusts to 45 knots and MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 215 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 TXZ021>044-150715- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 215 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening, mainly on the Caprock. Locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with some of these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the South and Rolling Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. The severe weather threat is low. High temperatures in excess of 105 degrees are forecast for most of the Rolling Plains for this upcoming weekend, and may reach 110 degrees by early next week across the Rolling Plains.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:35 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Plains measured a wind gust of 61 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Olton measured a wind gust of 59 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1193082, 1193083.