Flash Flooding and Flooding in Texas, April 8 to 10, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
301 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024/
/Now through Tuesday Afternoon/

The partial eclipse has started as of 12:40 PM, and quite a bit of
scattering has occurred over the last few hours. Low clouds continue
to linger in areas mainly near and east of I-35, but should
continue to scatter over the next couple hours. Additionally,
high-based, sometimes dense cirrus continue to stream across the
southeastern third of the CWA. While high cloud cover has been
less dense than expected, areas south of I-30 and east of I-35 may
continue to have trouble fully viewing the total/partial solar
eclipse early this afternoon.

By late this afternoon, North and Central Texas will find themselves
well-entrenched within an open warm-sector, characterized by 60-70
degree F dewpoints. Showers and storms have developed in South
Texas and will spread northward this afternoon, mainly near and
east of I-35. Uncapped instability (MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg), steep
lapse rates > 7 C/km, and stout deep layer shear will allow for
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. While hail
and winds are the main threats, there is a tornado threat across
the region due to more favorable low- level winds and SRH. A
second focal point for storm development will be to our west, near
the triple point of the dryline/warm front/cold front later
tonight. Elongated hodographs, decent low- level SRH, and steep
lapse rates relay the threat for very large hail and an increased
tornado threat across North Texas this evening. This threat is
greatest with the more discrete supercells, though many storms
will likely rotate. The western activity will spread eastward
tonight into Tuesday morning, with all hazards remaining possible
into the overnight. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive
warnings before you head to bed tonight.

The upper low will continue to advance east early Tuesday,
spreading increased forcing for ascent across the region. At the
surface, a boundary will be ushered south into North Texas,
becoming quasi-stationary closer to the I-20 corridor. A lull in
activity is expected during the early morning hours as the
overnight convection continues to move across East Texas, though
isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible. Later in
the morning, coverage of storms will become more widespread as
lift from the upper low is maximized. Messy storm clusters are
expected across North and Central Texas through the afternoon
hours, with best chances for storms near and south of I-20 where
the boundary is located. Strong to severe storms are expected once
again across the region, with best chances south of I-20 into
Central Texas. All hazards will be in play tomorrow, but the large
to very large hail threat and increased tornado potential will be
more confined to our south and southeastern counties. As the
storm clusters move east tomorrow afternoon, upscale growth into
more linear segments is possible across Central Texas.

PWAT values approaching 2" will be widespread across the region
today and tomorrow, promoting efficient rain producers. Over the
next 24-30 hours, rainfall totals of 1-3.5" with isolated higher
amounts of 5+" are expected, with greatest accumulations confined
to areas near and east of the I-35 corridor. All in all, the
threat for flooding is on the increase, and a Flood Watch is
currently in effect for our East Texas counties through Wednesday
morning.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The brunt of Tuesday's convection will push east and south of the
region Tuesday evening, perhaps providing a brief lull in
precipitation as the atmosphere stabilizes for a short period.
However, the upper low responsible for the unsettled weather will
still be in play as it moves east into the Big Country Tuesday
night. Steep lapse rates associated with the approaching low will
help destabilize the atmosphere, leading to additional showers and
storms overnight Tuesday night. Convection would likely be
elevated in nature north of a quasi-stationary front located over
Central Texas, which should mitigate the overall severe threat,
though small hail and frequent lightning will accompany the
stronger storms. The better severe threat Tuesday night will have
shifted into Southeast Texas and Louisiana.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday as the upper
low moves overhead. Clouds, precipitation and the presence of the
front will keep Wednesday temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Precipitation will come to an end across Central Texas
Wednesday night as the upper low moves east of the region, but
isolated thunderstorms may continue across some of North Texas
associated with wrap around moisture on the rear flank of the
upper low. Wrap around precipitation will eventually exit to the
east Thursday morning, followed by dry and seasonable weather
Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.

Dry weather and a warming trend will then ensue for the rest of the
week and into the weekend as a mid level ridge develops overhead
in the wake of the departing low. High temperatures will climb
into the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and Saturday, and all
locations should experience highs in the 80s by Sunday. The next
upper level system will bring at least a slight chance of storms
by late Monday or Tuesday of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024/
18Z TAFs|/

Morning stratus has generally scattered out to VFR for all sites,
though some instances of MVFR may occur with denser pockets of
afternoon Cu. Later this evening, storm chances will increase
across the region, with best chances for TSRA impacts between 3-7Z
for D10 and 1-5Z for ACT. Storm chances will be periodic through
the night, with dismal flying conditions (MVFR-IFR) expected.
All TAF sites will be in IFR (possibly nearing LIFR) by daybreak
(12Z). Another round of showers and storms are expected to impact
the TAF sites tomorrow morning, but should end by early afternoon
Tuesday. Additional convection will be possible after the TAF
period, but will be included in future issuances.

Prater

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  71  60  68  53 /  90 100  90  80  30
Waco                66  75  60  70  53 /  90  90  80  50  20
Paris               61  67  60  67  50 / 100 100  90  90  50
Denton              59  70  56  66  48 /  90  90  90  80  20
McKinney            62  70  59  67  51 /  90 100  90  80  30
Dallas              64  72  61  69  53 /  90 100  90  80  30
Terrell             62  71  61  69  51 /  90 100  90  80  40
Corsicana           66  75  63  72  53 / 100  90  80  60  30
Temple              67  78  60  72  52 /  80  80  70  40  10
Mineral Wells       60  71  56  68  49 /  90  90  80  80  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning
for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
257 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected across Central Texas this afternoon and
North Texas this evening. Most of North and Central Texas will see
storm chances overnight tonight.

Some storms will be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes all possible. Flooding will also be possible,
especially where any training storms may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
The severe weather threat will continue through Tuesday before
shifting southeast of the region Tuesday night. Flooding due to
locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
451 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

TXZ159>161-175-082230-
Robertson TX-Limestone TX-Falls TX-McLennan TX-
451 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east
central McLennan, northwestern Robertson, southern Limestone and
eastern Falls Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bremond, or 11 miles southeast of Marlin, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
McLennan, northwestern Robertson, southern Limestone and eastern
Falls Counties, including the following locations... Wilderville, Ben
Hur, Otto, Box Church, Reagan, Thornton, Perry, Highbank, Pleasant
Grove, and Kosse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 9675 3106 9682 3107 9682 3108 9681
      3110 9683 3111 9683 3107 9691 3108 9699
      3161 9693 3152 9631 3103 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 200DEG 35KT 3117 9677

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Langfeld

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
506 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

TXZ147-148-082230-
Anderson TX-Freestone TX-
506 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Freestone and west central Anderson Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Fairfield Lake State Park, or 13 miles east of
Fairfield, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Freestone and west central Anderson Counties, including the following
locations... Lanely, Yard, Massey Lake, Tennessee Colony, Red Lake,
Oakwood, and Johnson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 9583 3159 9584 3156 9592 3157 9607
      3189 9609 3187 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 188DEG 27KT 3165 9596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Langfeld

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

TXZ145-146-161-082345-
Limestone TX-Hill TX-Navarro TX-
619 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Limestone, southeastern Hill and southwestern Navarro Counties
through 645 PM CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hubbard, or 20 miles northwest of Mexia, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dawson and Navarro Mills Lake around 625 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Malone, Silver City,
Dresden, Mertens, Pelham, Mount Calm, Irene, Frost, Penelope, and
Navarro Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 9666 3176 9694 3206 9692 3214 9677
      3214 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 185DEG 34KT 3184 9678

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Langfeld