A continued active pattern across Middle Tennessee in March 2024 led to more significant drought improvement. By March 19th, zero percent of the area was in severe or worse drought for the first time since October 2023.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A continued active pattern across Middle Tennessee in March 2024 led to more significant drought improvement. By March 19th, zero percent of the area was in severe or worse drought for the first time since October 2023. By the end of March, only abnormally dry conditions were present across the area, making this the first time since September 2023 with no drought conditions present.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 10:51 PM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1051 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Radar this evening shows light rain aloft across our southwestern counties. However, this is certainly virga as the 00Z OHX sounding remains extremely dry below 500mb with a PWAT of only 0.20 inches. However, with time precipitation aloft along with gradually strengthening WAA will moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere enough for rain to reach the surface, which is most likely to occur in the 05-10Z timeframe from southwest early to northeast late. Cannot rule out a bit of sleet at the onset of precipitation due to the amount of dry air causing temperatures to fall down to the wet bulb temp, but any sleet would be very short lived and of no impact. Tomorrow continues to look quite cool and rainy, especially in the morning with widespread light to moderate rain anticipated before activity becomes more showery the rest of the day. Have updated pops based on the latest NBM guidance, and also tweaked temps for tonight/tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 It's a cool afternoon across the area with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. There's some filtered sunlight out there as thin cirrus covers the area. Clouds will continue to build in this evening ahead of a shortwave moving through the Ozarks into the Midwest. Showers will enter the west around midnight and be areawide by daybreak. The initial wave with lift northeast during the morning but a secondary wave will continue shower chances through the evening hours especially along the plateau. Showers should completely move out prior to daybreak on Saturday. Rain totals will range from a couple tenths of an inch in the northwest to between a half to three quarters of an inch in the south and east. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 The weekend will get off to a nice start on Saturday with temperature rising from the mid 40s at daybreak to the lower to mid 60s in the afternoon with sun returning during the afternoon. Temperatures will be even warming on Sunday as low level southerly flow increases. Temperatures on Sunday will reach the 70s with the exception of the cooler plateau locations. The southerly fetch continues on Monday and we'll likely get a couple degrees warmer than Sunday. A couple light showers can't be ruled out in the afternoon but most of the long range ensembles hold off the rain until Monday night as a shortwave embedded in southwesterly 500 mb flow approaches the area. Showers and couple storms will continue on Tuesday. Any appreciable instability looks like it will remain well west of the area Monday night and Tuesday, so no severe weather is expected with this system despite the warm temperatures Monday and Monday night. The active pattern continues into the midweek period with above average temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Precip is pushing in from the west this evening, but it will take a while for cigs to fall and for rain to become a bit more widespread. Expect MVFR conditions to set in by 14z as cigs fall and visibilities decrease with widespread showers. All terminals should remain MVFR to IFR through the afternoon hours. Models are very slow to show any improvement Friday afternoon and there could be very light rain persisting through the end of the period. Cigs may approach LIFR heights after 00z. Winds will generally be out of the southeast around 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 40 52 47 65 / 80 100 40 0 Clarksville 37 51 45 66 / 80 80 20 0 Crossville 35 46 43 60 / 50 100 70 0 Columbia 39 51 46 67 / 80 100 30 0 Cookeville 37 48 46 61 / 50 100 70 0 Jamestown 34 46 43 60 / 40 90 70 0 Lawrenceburg 40 51 45 66 / 80 100 40 0 Murfreesboro 38 52 46 66 / 70 100 60 0 Waverly 38 51 45 67 / 80 80 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Whitehead
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions across Wayne County finally improved to moderate drought conditions on March 19, 2024. By the end of the month, only abnormally dry conditions were present across Wayne County.
Severe drought conditions across Lawrence County finally improved to moderate drought conditions on March 19, 2024. By the end of the month, only abnormally dry conditions were present across Lawrence County.
Severe drought conditions across Giles County finally improved to moderate drought conditions on March 19, 2024. By the end of the month, only abnormally dry conditions were present across Giles County.
Severe drought conditions across Lewis County finally improved to moderate drought conditions on March 19, 2024. By the end of the month, only abnormally dry conditions were present across Lewis County.
Severe drought conditions across Maury County finally improved to moderate drought conditions on March 12, 2024. By the end of the month, only abnormally dry conditions were present across Maury County.
Severe drought conditions across Perry County finally improved to moderate drought conditions on March 19, 2024. By the end of the month, only abnormally dry conditions were present across Perry County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1161239, 1161240, 1161241, 1161242, 1161243, 1161244.