Drought in Tennessee, January 1 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Mainly scattered high clouds continue across northern Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee this evening. A more concentrated area
of mid to high cloud cover is in place along and behind a front
that currently extends from near Tullahoma, TN southwest into
southwestern Tennessee. Winds have been fairly light to calm
across much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee
south of the this front. This has allowed temperatures to fall
into the mid 30s to lower 40s in those locations, despite some
warm air advection and high cloud cover.

Newest guidance is trending a bit warmer with overnight lows. This
makes sense looking well upstream behind the front as far north
as central Missouri and southern Illinois/Indiana. In those
locations, despite being well behind the front, temperatures are
still in the lower 30s primarily. Guidance does show more of a
northerly component to the advection overnight with winds likely
picking up to around 10 mph with some gusts around 25 mph in a few
spots, after the front moves south of the area. Since we are
expecting cloud cover to increase as well behind the front after
midnight, not confident lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s
north of the Tennessee River, which previous guidance was
suggesting.

With some uncertainty involved, didn't want to raise lows too
aggressively, so still kept them dropping into the lower 30s in
most locations, with some upper 20s in southern middle Tennessee.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Post-frontal temperatures will dip into the low to mid 40s for
Monday's highs, which is around 5-10 degrees below normal for this
time of year. We will slowly warm throughout the first half of the
work week-- working our way up to the mid 40s for highs by
Wednesday. Overnight lows during this time period will be in the
20s, with Monday night being the coldest in the short term period.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 20s with
wind chills in the mid to upper teens.

Dry weather will persist through Wednesday morning before low to
medium chances (20-50%) of precipitation move in due to an upper
level trough moving in from the west. This precipitation is
forecast to be mostly rain with low chances of snow in higher
elevations. This will be dependent on temperatures and we will be
monitoring this closely over the next few days. High temperatures,
for now, are forecast to reach the mid 40s under mostly cloudy
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

A progressive upper flow pattern continued to send series of
disturbances and regions of lower heights in a west to east manner
across the CONUS. The various medium range models were in generally
good agreement regarding timing and placement of these features as we
go through the latter half of this week.

For Wed-Thu, a trough moving across the eastern half of the Lower-48
will produce a weak area of low pressure, that will also head to the
east across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The precipitation shield
rounding the northern half of this system for the most part should
clip the area. But given better inter-model agreement on where the
rain occurs, have maintained lower end rain chances, with the best
chances south of the Tennessee River. The rain could briefly mix with
snow as it ends late Wed night over NE Alabama. Rainfall amounts
from this system will remain on the very light side, with maybe 0.05"
south of the big river. Timing regarding when the precip ends should
occur before area temperatures plunge below freezing after midnight
Wed night. A steady NW wind of 5-10 mph should help dry area roadways
before freezing commences.

Clouds should diminish from west to east Thu night as that system
exits to the east. Dry weather is expected Friday as cold high
pressure builds in from the west. Because of the progressive upper
pattern, yet another system to our west will near the Valley, and
bring more rain chances - just in time for the upcoming weekend.
Output from the deterministic models far as timing and coverage of
this next system were in reasonably good agreement. A problem with
icing cannot be ruled out late Friday night (if precipitation
commences then) over parts of NE Alabama. With blend temperatures in
the upper 20s, a brief period of freezing rain is possible in eastern
DeKalb county before daybreak. Otherwise, an all rain event is
expected as temperatures area wide rise into the mid/upper 40s on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

CIGS behind the front have lowered more than expected as they have
develop behind the front over the last half hour or so. Based on
these trends, have included a MVFR deck at both terminals after
6Z. Expect these lower clouds to hang around until around the
daybreak hours (KHSV-12Z/KSML-11Z). Cloudy conditions will
continue as winds become more from the NNE after daybreak, but VFR
conditions should return as CIGS climb to over 10K feet.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW