Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, August 19, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
506 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms expected this afternoon. One or two storms
  could be strong to severe with hail and strong winds.

- Chances for isolated to scattered storms continue near daily
  through the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday,
  especially over northeastern WY and far southwestern SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 108 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the eastern MT/WY
border, with a frontal boundary stretching south through eastern
Wyoming into Colorado. Water Vapor and upper air models show ridge
over the northern and central plains, with an upper high over the
southern plains, shortwave currently riding up the ridge to our
west this afternoon. Breezy southeasterly winds are bringing
moisture into the region, with many areas staying above 50% RH
today. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 70s to mid 80s for
most places.

As clouds begin to move out this afternoon, we'll see increasing
mid-level lapse rates. Shortwave moving through the region today
coupled with upslope flow over the Black Hills, will bring
scattered storms into the region. The better CAPE sits in the
western half of the forecast area, with values in the 2000-2500
j/Kg range, decreasing as you go east towards central SD. Shear is
not so great, generally in the 25-35kt range across the area.
Still ample enough energy and moisture to generate a couple strong
to severe storms this afternoon into early evening, provided
cloud cover breaks enough. Strong winds and marginally severe hail
will be the main threats today.

Upper ridge shifts a bit eastward through today, but generally
models keep mild ridging over the northern plains, with
southeasterly surface flow providing moisture into the region for
much of this week, bringing near daily chances for showers and
storms. Less instability over the next few days will likely limit
severe chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 505 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, mainly across
the western SD plains after 02Z. IFR conditions expected in
stronger storms, especially from the Black Hills onto the western
SD plains. Activity may linger through tonight from northwest SD
through south central SD. VFR conds expected Tues.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
334 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-041-042-072>076-078-WYZ054>060-201300-
Harding-Northern Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foothills-Rapid City-
Southern Foothills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Western Fall River-
Northern Oglala Lakota-Sturgis/Piedmont Foothills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Hermosa Foothills-Eastern Fall River-
Southern Oglala Lakota-Southern Perkins-Northern Campbell-
Southern Campbell-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-
Weston County Plains-Newcastle-Northeastern Crook-
334 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that isolated severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
storms may produce hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-077-201300-
Ziebach-Haakon-Northern Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Southern Jackson-
334 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024 /434 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated storms are possible today and tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
storms may produce hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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