Wind-driven seas and a fading long-period northeasterly swell caused a high risk of rip currents along Puerto Rico's Atlantic Coastline.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Wind-driven seas and a fading long-period northeasterly swell caused a high risk of rip currents along Puerto Rico's Atlantic Coastline.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 4:58 AM AST, 9 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST Wed Mar 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Under east to east-southeast wind flow morning showers will
affect windward sectors today. With the arrival of a surface
trough and afternoon sea breeze convergence, areas of PR's NW
quadrant will receive convective activity. An increase in
instability and moisture is forecast for Thursday and Friday,
increasing the potential for shower activity and resulting in a
limited threat of flooding for Puerto Rico, especially on Thursday
afternoon. Under the ESE wind flow, the islands may observe near to
above- normal highs each afternoon through the rest of the workweek,
which, combined with high humidities, could make the apparent
temperatures warmer than usual. A drying trend is forecast for the
first half of next week.
Hazardous seas across the offshore Atlantic waters will last
through this afternoon. Small Craft, however, should continue to
exercise caution over the nearshore northern waters and Anegada
Passage through tonight, and through tomorrow night for the
offshore Atlantic waters. High rip current risk will persist until
through this afternoon for Culebra and St. Croix and through
tonight for northern Puerto Rico.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
We observed another calm night in the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico, with the overnight minimum temperatures dropping into
the low 70s and upper 60s along the coastal sections and even
lower in mountains and valleys, with values ranging between the
mid-50s and low 60s degrees Fahrenheit. The GOES-East detected a
perturbation approaching from the east that produced variably
cloudy skies across the eastern half of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands late yesterday night, becoming mostly clear to partly
cloudy in today's early morning.
Once again, we anticipate fair weather conditions this morning.
Still, with the arrival of the surface trough, there is a chance for
cloudy skies and showery weather to increase by the afternoon,
ranging between 50 and 60% chance to receive around half an inch
with isolated higher amounts (especially across PR's northwest
quadrant) that may result in ponding or water in poorly drained
areas or even in isolated urban flooding. Today's afternoon
convection will be mainly due to local effects and sea breeze
variations. However, a jet stream associated with an approaching
upper-level trough could enhance the convection, so we include
isolated thunderstorms in the grids.
The upper-level jet will increase even more on Thursday, lingering
through Friday, combined with increased available moisture. Winds
will prevail from the east-southeast in response to the surface
trough Thursday through Friday. As a result, we may observe better
shower activity with isolated thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon,
extending into the late night or even early Friday morning. Despite
the increasing instability and moisture, model guidance does not
indicate a strong signal for widespread flooding across the region.
However, we can anticipate periods of locally heavy rain producing
ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas or even urban and
minor stream flooding, especially on Thursday afternoon.
Under the east-southeast wind flow, the islands may observe near to
above-normal maximum temperatures each afternoon, which, combined
with the high humidity, could make the apparent temperatures warmer
than usual.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
No major changes to the long term forecast. Current model guidance
indicates generally normal to slightly above normal precipitable
water (PWAT) values on Saturday, as east to east-northeast winds
prevail and an upper trough moves away from the region. The highest
rain chances for most of the period will be on Saturday. Moisture
will then erode on Sunday to start the next week as a surface high
moves north of the region. A drying trend is then forecast for
Sunday through most of Wednesday with below normal PWAT values with
only patches with up to normal columnar moisture reaching the
region. As surface highs and frontal lows move from the eastern
seaboard into the Atlantic, winds throughout the period are forecast
to be east-northeasterly to easterly on Sunday, mainly easterly on
Monday, and east-northeasterly on Tuesday and Wednesday, somewhat
increasing on Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that any
available moisture will be mostly limited to below 800 mb Sunday
through Wednesday morning, with drier air aloft. Overall fair
weather conditions, along with seasonal weather patterns of
morning/overnight showers along windward sectors and shallow
afternoon seabreeze convergence over western PR, should prevail for
the first half of next week as a mid-level ridge builds over the
area, increasing stability aloft. Temperatures should be near
normal, somewhat cooler when under ENE flow. Current model guidance
indicates a more pronounced moisture patch reaching the islands by
Wednesday afternoon, but uncertainty remains high.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM AST Wed Mar 6 2024
VFR conditions will prevail today under an E-ESE wind flow across
the local flying area in PR/USVI. Fragments of clouds may arrive,
producing occasional quick passing SHRA/+SHRA, which, if it
affects terminals, may briefly reduce visibilities. TSRA may
develop this afternoon, especially near JBQ between 06/18-23z.
Winds will increase between 10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea
breezes after 06/13z and become calm to light/vrb after 06/23z.
&&
.MARINE...
A broad surface high spread over the central Atlantic and a short
wave trough to our east will promote moderate east- southeasterly
winds, with higher gusts, across the local waters. The surface
high will continue to move over the central Atlantic before
sinking southeastward during the next few days. Hazardous seas
across the offshore Atlantic waters will last through this
afternoon. Small Craft, however, should continue to exercise
caution over the nearshore northern waters and Anegada Passage
through tonight, and through tomorrow night for the offshore
Atlantic waters. We cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms moving
over the waters northwest of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Shower
and possible thunderstorm activity will increase across the waters
for the second half of the workweek. For more information,
consult the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU & CWFSPN) and
Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU).
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the northern
coastline of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, and Culebra, as
well as easternmost beaches of St. Croix. Dangerous coastal
conditions will persist until through this afternoon for Culebra
and St. Croix and through tonight for Puerto Rico, becoming
moderate after. For additional information, please refer to the
latest Coastal Hazards Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFSJU).
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
008.
High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for AMZ711.
&&
SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....MRRPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 509 AM AST miércoles 6 de marzo de 2024 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-070915- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 509 AM AST miércoles 6 de marzo de 2024 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas son posible a través del interior y el cuadrante del noroeste. Esté atento a las tormentas eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar un lugar seguro. .Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas de mal drenaje a través del cuadrante noroeste. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través del Océano Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas particularmente a lo largo de las playas orientadas al norte y este en PR y Culebra. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Oleaje peligroso continuarán hasta mediados de la semana a través de sectores de las aguas del Atlántico y pasajes. El oleaje se deteriorará temprano la próxima semana. Un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas prevalecerá durante el resto de la semana, y puede aumentar a alto temprano la próxima semana. Lluvias fuertes debido a las tormentas eléctricas son posibles el jueves. Los índices de calor podrían superar 100 grados el viernes a través de las elevaciones más bajas de la costa norte-central de Puerto Rico. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN OBSERVADORA... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-070915- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 509 AM AST miércoles 6 de marzo de 2024 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas son posible a través de las aguas circundantes. Esté atento a las tormentas eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar un lugar seguro. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través del Océano Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas particularmente en la mitad este de Santa Cruz. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Oleaje peligroso continuará hasta mediados de la semana a través de sectores de las aguas del Atlántico y pasajes. El oleaje se deteriorará temprano la próxima semana. Un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas prevalecerá durante el resto de la semana. Las tormentas eléctricas pueden desarrollarse a través de las aguas locales hasta temprano el viernes en la mañana. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN OBSERVADORA... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A family of seven was swept away by rip currents in Playa Escondida, Fajardo. The father was able to save all his children and wife, but he drowned, and his body was recovered two days later in the area.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2024-03-06 | 35 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1164917.