Wildfire in Oregon, June 26 to 29, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
259 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...A line of higher clouds are moving northeast into
more of Douglas and Josephine counties this afternoon. The stratus
is still present at the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. and will
continue tonight. Winds are strong this afternoon with gusts near
25-35 mph this afternoon and high profile vehicles will have
difficulty driving.

A cold front is passing today. Drizzle and light rain, less than a
tenth of an inch, is possible tonight near the coast and into
northern Douglas County. This front will bring a cooldown to near
normal temperatures east of the Cascades with slightly below normal
temperatures west. This translates to mostly 70s and low 80s with
60s at the coast. Tonight will also be a colder night east side with
lows in the 30s again. Chemult has a 70-80% probability to see
temperatures fall to or below 36 degrees tonight. Northerly winds
will continue tomorrow and early Saturday and will not be as breezy
as the winds today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Friday
afternoon with highs near 80 east of the Cascades and some upper 80s
in the Rogue Valley. Hermansen

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Models are consistent in
timing another marine push into the west side here later Saturday
or Saturday night with west side marine clouds and possibly some
additional coastal drizzle. Thereafter the common theme is warming
weather under building high pressure and stable conditions next
week. NBM shows chances of exceeding 90 in Medford increasing
from only 38% Tuesday to 58% Wednesday, then to above 60%
Thursday through Friday. Stavish

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...MVFR/IFR conditions are along the coast.
Inland of the coastal mountains, expect mainly VFR conditions. Some
areas of MVFR/IFR may develop again this evening in the Umpqua
Basin, mainly near and northwest of Roseburg. Another breezy/gusty
day is expected this afternoon and evening ahead of an incoming
front. -CC/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM Wednesday, June 26, 2024...Relatively
calm conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. A weak
front is pushing through the region today and is bringing a deep
layer of low clouds along with a chance of showers or drizzle. Gusty
north winds will return late tomorrow into Friday, with steep seas
and advisory level conditions returning at that time. Another front
and deep marine layer are likely to disrupt the pattern this
weekend, with improved conditions expected Saturday afternoon
through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag conditions being observed this afternoon
across much of the east with sites gusting 30-40 mph and RHs into
the 10-15% range. Winds are going to be on the decrease tonight.
Thursday morning more marine clouds will push into the west side
with some possible scattered coverage through early morning over
the Rogue Valley and banked into the Siskiyous. Later Thursday
through Friday should see a short warming/drying trend before
another weak trough passage and marine push by mid to late
weekend. This event shouldn't cool the temperatures too much.
Thereafter next week looks to be a fairly high confidence warming
and drying event. Some red ERC numbers are showing up toward
Thursday and Friday in the GACC's 10-day projected table
indicating values reaching or exceeding the 95th percentile.
Stavish

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 2
     PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&