Sneakerwave in Oregon, February 10 to 11, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
907 AM PST Sat Feb 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...With an upper ridge over the region low stratus and
spotty fog is present in the west side valleys and east of the
Cascades along the 97 corridor north of Klamath Falls. These
stratus decks are already being chipped away at the edges, and
should be mostly burned off by noon. Current forecast looks on
track and will not update this morning. -Sven

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...Conditions are mainly VFR this morning,
with patches of valley LIFR through the remainder of the morning.
Mostly sunny/VFR skies follow across the area this afternoon once
this stratus/fog burns off. An approaching front will spread MVFR to
the coast late this evening. Late tonight into Sunday morning, MVFR
will spread across much southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou
County, with coastal conditions deteriorating to a mix of IFR/MVFR
with a chance of light rain. Conditions are expected to remain VFR
for south central Oregon and the remainder of northern California.
-DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Saturday February 10, 2024...Winds and seas
will remain low today. Swell dominated seas are then forecast to
build tonight into Sunday, becoming steep by Sunday morning. Steep
seas are expected through Sunday night, with a possibility of them
lingering into Monday morning. Meanwhile, south winds return with
the passage of the next boundary late Saturday night through Sunday
morning. Seas are then likely to diminish Monday through Tuesday
with winds weakening and shifting to the east. South winds and steep
seas are likely to return around Wednesday with the arrival of the
next frontal system. -DW

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A moderate risk for sneaker waves will exist this
afternoon through late tonight. The incoming (rising) tide that
coincides with the greatest sneaker wave risk occurs this evening
and this will be the period of time with the most dangerous
conditions. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on
beaches than normal, which could result in serious injury. Avoid
climbing on rocks and jetties. Stay away from the ocean and remain
out of the water to avoid hazardous conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 AM PST Sat Feb 10 2024/

UPDATE...Updated aviation section at 1430z for the 12z TAF cycle.

SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery shows some cloud cover over
portions of southern Oregon and northern California. This cloud
cover will help keep things a bit warmer than temperatures would
otherwise be this morning. The cloud cover will burn off later
today under broad ridging, and temperatures will become more mild
this weekend.

A weak front will approach the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, but
ensembles agree that it will weaken and essentially dissipate as
it makes landfall. This means that some light precipitation will
be possible for the coast, northern Douglas County, and a portion
of the southern Oregon Cascades. Any precipitation that does fall
will be light.

Sunday night and Monday will return to the milder ridging pattern
with patchy fog possible once again for the interior west side
valleys. Any fog would burn off in the morning with partly cloudy
skies in the afternoon. While a few ensemble solutions try to
bring in a weak warm front, the forecast remains dry with limited
precipitation chances due to the ridging. -Schaaf

LONG TERM...Previous long term discussion issued for Tuesday
through next Monday, slightly edited...After a relative lull, an
active pattern returns mid week. The ensemble spaghetti plots are
in very good agreement with an upper ridge over the west coast
Monday night, shifting east Tuesday. The GEFS ensemble plots
become less tight, but the vast majority are in agreement with the
upper trough shifting east as an upper trough moves in from the
west. With this pattern of an upper trough moving into the coast,
expect southerly winds increase especially for the Shasta Valley
and the southern end of the Rogue Valley.

While the GEFS ensemble meteograms (10-20%) are indicating
measurable precipitation at Medford Tuesday and Wednesday, roughly
55-65% are showing measurable precipitation Thursday and Friday.
The ECMWF ensemble meteogram is slightly less optimistic with
maybe 5% less chance for the same periods. Overall the extended
period is showing a wetter pattern, with the 8 to 14 day outlook
indicating a moderate to high risk of hazardous precipitation in
northern California, with heavy snow possible in the 16th through
21st timeframe. -Schaaf/Sven

AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs... Fog, or in some places a low stratus, has
built into the valleys west of the Cascades and in the Klamath
Basin. This is causing MVFR in areas of stratus (Medford, Klamath
Falls), and IFR in the Upqua Basin including Roseburg. Conditions in
the Umpqua are likely as low as they will get, but conditions els
where may lower from MVFR to IFR as high pressure keeps building
in. We may see mostly sunny skies Saturday afternoon once this
stratus/fog burns off, leading to an overall nice day for flying.

-Miles

MARINE...Updated 800 PM Friday February 9, 2024...Winds
will continue to remain light through today. Swell dominated seas
are then forecast to build Saturday night into Sunday, becoming
steep by Sunday morning. An advisory was issued this morning to
cover these conditions. The main uncertainty is in the timing of
duration, and the advisory may need to be extended with later
updates. Seas are then likely to diminish Monday through Tuesday
with winds weakening and shifting to the east. South winds and steep
seas are likely to return mid to late next week with the arrival of
the next frontal system.

-Guerrero/Miles

BEACH HAZARDS...A moderate risk for sneaker waves will exist on
Saturday. The incoming (rising) tide that coincides with the
greatest sneaker wave risk occurs Saturday evening and this will be
the period of time with the most dangerous conditions. Sneaker waves
can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, which could
result in serious injury. Avoid climbing on rocks and jetties. Stay
away from the ocean and remain out of the water to avoid hazardous
conditions.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM PST this afternoon through
     late tonight for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4
     AM PST Monday for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for
     PZZ350-370-376.

&&

SBN/SBN/SBN