Drought in Oklahoma, July 2 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mid to upper ridging which has been centered overhead the past few
days will begin to shift slowly eastward today. However, warming
850 temperatures and southwest surface winds will help boost
temperatures at least a couple degrees over yesterday's values,
with air temperatures at or above 100 degrees expected just about
everywhere. Dewpoints will be a few degrees lower which will help
balance out heat indicies somewhat. Either way, it will still be
quite hot and a heat advisory is in effect areawide.

In addition to the heat, a cold front will bring a chance for
thunderstorms to northwest Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. A hot
and deeply mixed boundary layer will create an environment
conducive for strong to severe wind gusts, which will be the main
hazard today. The severe threat will likely linger a bit into the
evening before weakening with loss of daytime heating.

Finally, elevated fire weather is expected across much of western
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas this afternoon where
hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected amid ongoing flash
drought and dry fuels.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The front is expected to stall across northern Oklahoma by
Wednesday, where showers and storms could linger into the day. This
will also help keep temperatures cooler here, with highs likely only
in the 80's. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions will continue with
another day of triple digit highs expected.

The heat continues into Thursday (4th of July), but the pattern will
begin to change by later in the day as a stronger cold front moves
into the area. Showers and storms will develop along the front by
late afternoon across northern Oklahoma, with (40-50%) chances
expanding southward into central Oklahoma during the evening, which
could potentially impact those with outdoor holiday plans. Decent
instability but rather weak shear will lend itself to mainly a
damaging wind threat, with heavy rainfall and lightning also a
concern.

Rain chances will linger into Friday but push southward towards the
Red River with the front through the day. Lower heights and central
US troughing then appears to stick around into at least early next
week, which should allow for occasional storm chances and
temperatures near average for this time of year.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected during the day
today. Winds will increase to 15 knots or so out of the south-
southwest at most locations with gusts in the 20-25 knot range
during the afternoon. Storms are possible this evening for
airfields in northwest Oklahoma; gusty outflow winds will be
possible in and around those storms. Some lingering showers and
winds backing to easterly are possible in northern Oklahoma over
the rest of the night.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  79 101  80 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK        104  79 102  80 /   0  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  80 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          102  71  90  72 /  30  70  30  20
Ponca City OK    103  75  94  76 /   0  30  30  30
Durant OK        101  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-030800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
256 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight...

.Heat...
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area today
with heat index values up to 110 degrees expected.

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorm are possible over parts of
northwestern and northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
These storms could produce large hail up to the size of quarters
and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph.

.Fire Weather...
Hot, breezy, and dry conditions could lead to elevated fire
weather concerns across parts of central and western Oklahoma and
western north Texas Wednesday this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Heat...
Hot conditions continue through Thursday before somewhat cooler
air moves into the area on Friday.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances continue across northern Oklahoma Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances increase across the entire area Thursday
afternoon and into Friday as a front moves through the area. Some
of these storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts the main
concern. Low storm chances persist this weekend into early next
week.

.Fire Weather...
Hot, breezy, and dry conditions could lead to elevated fire
weather concerns across parts of central and western Oklahoma and
western north Texas Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

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