Drought in Oklahoma, January 1 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

At mid evening the low level cloud deck continued across much of
Eastern Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas...along and north of
a line from slightly south of KMLC to slightly south of KFYV. This
was in response to the mid/upper level trof axis continuing to
slowly drop southeast through the region. In the wake of this
trof axis...was surface high pressured currently centered over
Southeast Nebraska...just north of the back edge of the low
clouds. Underneath the cloud cover across Northeast Oklahoma and
far Northwest Arkansas...temps this evening have not changed all
that much with low/mid 30s common. To the south of the low
clouds temps were running in the mid to upper 30s.

Overnight tonight...the mid/upper trof axis will slide through the
region while the surface high pressure center slowly sags
southward toward the CWA. In response...current thinking is for
the low clouds to remain across much of the CWA tonight and into
the day Monday before surface high center enters the CWA. This
should keep temps overnight from bottoming out...especially over
Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. Forecast lows in
the upper 20s to mid 30s are forecast for tonight. Thus...for the
evening update have slowed the rate of cooling underneath the
cloud cover and increased min temps slightly over these same
locations. Have also adjusted sky grids to account for the cloud
cover mentioned above. The rest of the forecast seems to be in
good shape at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

The forecast for Monday will also hinge on the cloud cover across
the area. Regardless, the temperatures are expected to be below
normal as high pressure builds over the area from the north
and a mid-level ridge prevails across the southern Plains.

The next chances of rain will be Tuesday night as a mid-level
low currently off the southern California coast weakens as it
moves across the Southwest and eventually Texas. Most of the
precipitation is expected to be south of I-40 with this feature.

As we move into Friday, a more significant mid-level low is
forecast to move out of the Rockies and across the Plains. The
chances of precipitation are expected to ramp up across the
area Friday morning and continue through Saturday morning when the
mid-level feature exits to the east. While the precipitation
is expected to be mainly rain during the day Friday, there
could be a transition to snow as the precipitation tapers
off Friday night into Saturday morning. This will be especially
true in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. There remains
much uncertainty with this feature as it is currently off the
Alaska coast. The models will get a better handle on this
system as it approaches the lower 48 as we move into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Lower stratus deck will persist overnight with MVFR conditions
expected at all terminals except KFSM, which will likely remain
VFR through the forecast period with only SCT/BKN high clouds.
Southern edge of low clouds still expected to slowly erode during
the day Monday, lifting back north of a KTUL/KFYV line by mid
afternoon with VFR conditions at all TAF sites early Monday evening.
Generally stayed close to the latest HRRR trends which has performed
much better with progression of low clouds compared to MAV/MET
guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  43  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  48  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  43  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  45  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   31  42  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   30  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   30  41  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  44  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  50  28  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
504 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds and cool conditions are expected to continue
across the region tonight with no hazardous weather expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A storm system is expected to bring widespread precipitation to
the region Friday into Saturday. It is still many days out and
the forecast details are likely to change, but at this time it
does appear there will be potential for snow with this system
across northeast Oklahoma and especially northwest Arkansas
Friday night into Saturday. Some travel impacts are possible.
Stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as the details continue
to become better defined.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.