Strong southwesterly wind ahead of an approaching front eventually advected sufficient moisture and warm air in the lower levels to overcome a capping inversion ahead of a cold front that would eventually be the main driver of forcing to take advantage of a supportive environment. Damaging wind was the primary threat, although the shear and lapse rates aloft pointed towards a limited potential…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
Strong southwesterly wind ahead of an approaching front eventually advected sufficient moisture and warm air in the lower levels to overcome a capping inversion ahead of a cold front that would eventually be the main driver of forcing to take advantage of a supportive environment. Damaging wind was the primary threat, although the shear and lapse rates aloft pointed towards a limited potential for large hail as well. Tornadoes looked possible, however, LCLs were relatively high, and any issued TORs did not verify.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 6, 3:15 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 415 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and through the evening with a passing cold front. A few of these storms are expected to be severe. Noticeably cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected Monday and through the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon and into the evening with a frontal passage. - Cooler temperatures by morning behind the front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ...2015Z Mesoscale Update... 20Z PBZ special sounding is showing a warm layer at about 800mb that is capping updraft vertical development. Cumulus field has formed up in low-level convergence ahead of the front in northeast Ohio, but to this point, there hasn't been enough lift to get past that warm layer. Cloud tops are just starting to cool to -10C on a localized basis along the Lake Erie shore, so convective initiation may be imminent. The cold front, now approaching Cleveland, will need to be the main driver of forcing to take advantage of a supportive environment. For now, there are no big changes to the expected evolution of convection going forward, as overall instability/shear are still in expected ranges. Previous discussion... Cold front is currently crossing into far northwestern Ohio, and shows up well when looking at surface dewpoints. Gusty southwest flow ahead of this boundary will continue warm and moist advection into our region. A ribbon of low 60s dewpoints will move across our region just ahead of the boundary. This will contribute to MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and also help to reduce low-level inhibition. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen with cooling aloft in an approaching shortwave trough, with respectable effective shear of 35 to 45 knots. All of this supports a risk for severe thunderstorms during the period from late afternoon into mid evening. Convective initiation near the Lake Erie shore is expected by 4 PM or 5 PM. For the first couple hours, more discrete supercellular structures are possible given the deep shear, and a few of these should cross into the northwestern portion of the CWA through 6 PM. Damaging wind remains the primary threat, although the shear and lapse rates aloft point to a large hail threat as well. A threat for a tornado or two exists as well, although LCLs look to be a bit on the high side and modeled STP levels are generally below 1.0 for the most part. The window for this looks brief overall, with the northern CWA having the best potential. By 6 or 7 PM, it is expected that convection will take on a bit more of a linear nature, as low-level shear vectors lean more towards boundary-parallel. Damaging wind would then become the primary threat as the line drops through the forecast area into the evening hours. Storms should begin to weaken by 9 PM or so, by which time the front should be in the general vicinity of the Laurel Highlands. The front will have exited the region by 06Z, taking the last of the frontal precipitation/storms with it. Clearing should be fairly rapid behind the front, but late tonight, some clouds and a few isolated showers may return to areas north of I-80 as the shortwave trough axis moves through. In the wake of the front, overnight temperatures will fall to near average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and much cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Any showers north of Pittsburgh should end during the morning with the departure of the shortwave trough axis. Much cooler air arrives behind the front for Monday and Tuesday, with a drop of 15 to 20 degrees from Sunday levels expected. Surface ridging will extend into the region from an anticyclone dropping into the middle Mississippi Valley. This surface high will then extend its influence over the middle and upper Ohio Valley by midweek, providing dry weather and continued near to below- normal temperatures. Some very spotty frost potential may exist both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, although potential for this appears higher later in the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues through at least Saturday; light rain possible by Sunday. - Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday before a warming trend starts Friday. - Frost potential in some areas Thursday and Friday mornings. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure is forecast to persist across the middle and upper Ohio Valley into at least Saturday, with fairly high confidence as there is strong ensemble support for that outcome. The troughing pattern aloft persists into Thursday, with continued near to below- normal temperatures, before heights rise thereafter lead to a warming trend for Friday and the weekend. Towards the end of the forecast period, cluster analysis starts to show some disagreement with trough/ridge strength and timing, mainly providing some small uncertainties in temperatures. However, if troughing does reestablish by Sunday, there is potential for some light rain thanks to shortwaves traversing said trough. Probabilities of morning lows below 37 degrees (representing at least a threat of patchy frost) are at or above 50% for a good portion of the area both Thursday and Friday mornings, with some of the deeper valleys of northern West Virginia likely to experience a hard freeze. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will persist at the terminals through at least 20Z as a line of thunderstorms are expected to develop in the northwest and track southeast. Scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms are favored to develop along the frontal boundary and rapidly move SE between 21z-04z. Peak intensity of thunderstorms could drop visibility to 1 mile or less and contain gusty wind in excess of 40kts, but probability of terminal impact for those higher end values is too low for mention. Limited moisture ahead/behind front will keep ceiling impacts short in duration, though notable cold advection should aide in a stratocu layer developing as it traverses warmer Lake Erie waters. That said, the NBM probs suggest that visibility and cigs are not expected to be an issue overnight with the exception of Tucker County where some fog/low cigs are possible. .Outlook... There is a potential (up to 60%) for MVFR stratus reaching as far south as KPIT in the post-frontal environment early Monday morning (after 06z) and lingering into the early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are highly likely Monday night through much of the rest of the week under the influence of high pressure. Cooler temperature and light wind nights may result in brief periods of morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...Bookbinder NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...CL LONG TERM...CL AVIATION...CL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 459 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 OHZ039>041-049-050-058-059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031- 073>078-WVZ001>004-072100- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Guernsey-Belmont- Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland- Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette- Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana- Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall- 459 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ048-057-068-069-WVZ012-072100- Coshocton-Muskingum-Noble-Monroe-Wetzel- 459 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a slight risk of strong to severe storms associated with a cold front as it crosses the region later this afternoon and through the evening. Damaging wind, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes are the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. WVZ021-509>514-072100- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 459 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a marginal risk of strong to severe storms associated with a cold front as it crosses the region later this afternoon and through the evening. Damaging wind, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes are the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
614 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0554 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 8 NNE Cooperstown 41.60N 79.80W
10/06/2024 Venango PA 911 Call Center
Tree down on Wallaceville Road.
&&
LLPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
618 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM Hail Mercer 41.22N 80.23W
10/06/2024 E1.00 Inch Mercer PA Trained Spotter
&&
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</html>The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:36 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down along Lippincot Road.
A tree was reported down along Depot and Winona Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, October 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1221653, 1221652, 1221654.