Far-northeast OH resided in the warm/moist sector of an occluded surface low centered near the border of southeastern MB and ON during the early afternoon through early evening of the 25th. Simultaneously, a cold front drifted eastward across far-eastern OH.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
Far-northeast OH resided in the warm/moist sector of an occluded surface low centered near the border of southeastern MB and ON during the early afternoon through early evening of the 25th. Simultaneously, a cold front drifted eastward across far-eastern OH. Along and ahead of the cold front, a marginal supercell moved eastward across Mahoning County and generated isolated straight-line wind damage during the early afternoon of the 25th. Later that afternoon, a separate multicell thunderstorm moved east-southeastward across Mahoning County. This storm produced additional straight-line wind damage and marginally-severe hail. The warm/moist sector in which these storms occurred exhibited moderate MUCAPE and effective bulk shear, respectively, and primarily moderate DCAPE.
The aforementioned cold front settled eastward and southeastward to near the Upper OH Valley through daybreak on the 26th as the occluded surface low drifted northward. Thereafter, the front drifted generally northward as a warm front to the southern shore of Lake Erie through the early evening of the 26th as the occluded low meandered in vicinity of the border between northeastern MB and ON, and a separate low along the front moved from northwestern MO to southern WI. Scattered to numerous multicell rain showers and thunderstorms accompanied the warm front as it encountered weak to moderate MUCAPE, moderate to strong DCAPE, and moderate to strong effective bulk shear. Several of these showers and thunderstorms generated isolated straight-line wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 1:07 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 207 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north of the area this morning followed by a cold front sweeping west to east across the area today. High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday morning. Another low pressure system will track out of the Plains towards the Central Great Lakes on Monday pulling a stronger cold front east across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of Noon, a line of storms has filled in from Erie to Warren to Millersburg with the line heading east. The environment ahead of these storms are supportive of some marginal growth in storms with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, as temperatures ahead of the line touch the 80 degree mark. However, the outcome of these storms just seems to be some marginal wind and hail as DCAPE values are in the 800-900 J/kg range and mid-level lapse rates are just ok around 6 C/km so what is going up is not coming down with any bite with sub-severe wind, small hail, and brief heavy rain. This line will progress east and exit the forecast area in the next hour or two. Further west with the front itself, not much is really happening at the moment and the front will make it through the I-75 corridor without new convective initiation. There were some rain showers in the I-71 corridor and west toward Marion earlier, but these light showers did not really work over the environment as much as the current convection is across NE OH/NW PA, so there is a window of an environment supportive of new CI in North Central Ohio later this afternoon that will bear some watching. However, NE OH/NW PA will have stabilized so the threat should largely be the southeast portions of the forecast area and have adjusted the likely PoPs this afternoon to there. Previous discussion...Surface low pressure is located just north of Minnesota this morning with an occluded front extending to lower Michigan. A pseudo warm front indicated largely by a dewpoint gradient bisects the area with dewpoints near 60 degrees south of the boundary. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have developed in the last hour across southern lower Michigan where a 30+ knot low level jet is located along the warm front. This activity will continue to expand near and just north of Lake Erie. There is some potential for it to extend down the axis of the warm front into NE Ohio/NW Pennsylvania this morning but confidence is not real high in this so will only have chance pops. Otherwise, the trailing cold front is forecast to reach NW Ohio around 15Z and move east across the area through approximately 21Z. With dewpoints in the 60-65 degree range, ML CAPE values are forecast to reach 1200-1700 J/kg. Thunderstorms could develop along any remnant boundary that may remain if the initial round of activity does make it into NE Ohio or it may just develop along the cold front. The greatest coverage of storms is expected across NE Ohio and into NW Pennsylvania and this area remains in a marginal risk of severe weather. Shear values of 25-35 knots will support the potential for both a few marginally severe wind gusts and hail of a half inch to an inch. One note to consider it the presence of convection overnight across Missouri and Kentucky. PW values are forecast to increase to around 1.5" along the cold front but this activity to the south could potentially decrease moisture transport along the boundary. Something to keep an eye on as we monitor conditions and evaluate the 12Z model cycle. Although temperatures will average 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday, humidity will be up so the airmass will still feel warm and muggy. As the cold front exits to the east, surface high pressure will build east across the region tonight into the first half of Sunday. We look for clouds to clear as deep layer dry air arrives but less certain on if some fog or stratus may develop with light winds. This will likely depend on how much rain we get contributing to boundary layer moisture, but did include a mention of patchy fog in some favored eastern areas for late tonight. Otherwise temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 50s. Throughout the day on Sunday we will be monitoring a leading piece of shortwave energy lifting out of the Plains. Moisture advection has slowed down from the previous cycle and was able to slow down the returning chance of precipitation into the afternoon, and then mainly confine it to southern and western portions of the forecast area through the daytime hours. Temperatures and dewpoints increase again with instability building through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As previous forecasts have mentioned, unsettled weather is expected for the end of the this holiday weekend, particularly Sunday night into Monday. The biggest change with recent model runs is that most have slowed down the progression of the system over the Plains northeast, resulting in a bit later onset of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Upper level shortwaves advecting energy across the area coupled with an area of strong divergence aloft will aid in the development of convection across the area, although the confidence in the severe weather aspect of this forecast has diminished as the adjusted timing now has the storms developing in a non-diurnally favorable environment, limiting CAPE values. However with a LLJ of 50-55 knots pushing north across the area Sunday night/early Monday morning, this may help supplement the support needed in the low levels to maintain convection. With this set up, primary concern remain gusty winds and hail, although a tornado is not out of the realm of possibility. To highlight this concern, SPC has issued a Day 2 Marginal Risk for areas along and west of I71. In addition to the severe potential, there is also an ideal setup for the development of very efficient rainfall with the strongest storms that develop. Models suggest warm cloud layers growing in excess of 11kft and PWAT values moving across the area of 1.8-2". Current forecast QPF totals for Sunday through Monday afternoon are 0.8-1.2" of rainfall, but would expect locally higher totals in the strongest storms. This heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding and rises in rivers. To highlight this threat, WPC has issued a Day 2 ERO for much of the area with a Slight Risk across the southwestern counties and a Marginal Risk for the remainder of the area (excluding far NE OH and NW PA). Out of all this, the moral of the story is stay weather aware and have ways to receive warnings Sunday night into Monday as there is a multi-hazard system that will likely impact the area. On Monday morning a cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure tracking northeast through the region will move east across the area, gradually reducing the chances of precipitation from west to east through Monday night. This will be short lived as the upper level trough still over the region pivots again, moving another shortwave trough and associated cold front east across the area. There is a potential for thunder given the diurnally favorable timing of this secondary cold front, however overall forcing and a slightly drier airmass should keep much of the thunder activity limited. These showers may possibly continue through Tuesday night, although should become less widespread. The threat for very efficient rainfall will diminish on Tuesday, not posing additional flooding concerns. High temperatures throughout the period will begin in the mid to upper 70s on Monday, but behind the cold front will only climb into the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend falling into the low to mid 60s on Sunday night and then gradually cooling to drop into the low 50s by Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A similar story continues into the start of the long term period as the same upper level trough continues to pivot over the Great Lakes region, moving additional shortwaves across the area. This support coupled with diurnally favorable timing should be enough to support additional showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday, but finally high pressure will begin to push east and allow showers to diminish from west to east Wednesday night. This high will remain over the region through Friday, allowing for a period of dry weather. With this transition in systems, temperatures will again gradually climb to above normal by the end of the period with highs on Friday forecast to approach 80 across the western CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Some scattered TS continue across eastern OH into western PA and coverage should avoid all terminals except KYNG over the next hour or so. Some additional showers and storms may develop across portions of northern Ohio later this afternoon and some TS could be in and around KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG again for a brief time. However, if new convection doesn't initiate in the next 2-3 hours, then the threat may end up being done for the day. The surface cold front will swing through later this evening and high pressure will build from the north, allowing for dry conditions and just some high clouds to be a problem for the region through Sunday afternoon. With the convection today, some fog is possible in NE OH and NW PA and have mentioned it in the KERI TAF, but future expansion to the KYNG and KCAK TAFs are possible depending on cloud coverage tonight. Winds will be west to start with gusts in NW OH and will become light overnight with high pressure. Flow will settle on an east to northeast flow to start on Sunday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening into Monday. Periodic Non-VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... A warm front lifting north of Lake Erie this morning will allow winds to become southwest at 5-10 knots before a cold front moves east this evening and gradually shifts winds to be northwesterly at 5-10 knots. On Sunday another system approaches the region, initially resulting in easterly winds of 5-10 knots ahead of an approaching warm front, but as this boundary moves north of the lake winds will again shift to become southwesterly at 10-15 knots. As the parent low moves northeast across the western Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday, the pressure gradient will strengthen and result in winds increasing to 15-20 knots. On Monday, an associated cold front will move east, shifting winds to west-northwest and continuing at 15-20 knots. This period is the next to monitor for the potential of marine headlines, especially given the holiday and potential for increased boating traffic. With a shift to more onshore flow Monday night through Wednesday, waves will also build to 4-6 feet in the nearshore zones across the central and eastern basins which will likely increase the potential for rip currents. On Wednesday night, high pressure begins to build east over the area, allowing for winds to diminish to 5-10 knots through Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Campbell
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 438 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-260845- Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga- Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull- Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow- Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie- 438 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between 2 and 8 PM, mainly along and east of Interstate 71. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph and hail from a half inch to an inch diameter are the primary hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding where training of storms occurs. In addition, there is a marginal risk of severe weather including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and the chance for a tornado. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS. LEZ061-142>149-162>169-260845- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH- Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH- Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH- Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- 438 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding where training of storms occurs. In addition, there is a marginal risk of severe weather including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1047 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024
OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-251545-
Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-Northern Erie PA-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
1047 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ASHTABULA...
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM
EDT...
At 1047 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ashtabula, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Girard, North Kingsville, Albion, Lake City,
Kingsville, Pierpont, Conneautville, Cranesville, Springboro, Platea,
Edgewood, Plymouth Center, Kelloggsville, and Avonia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4175 8020 4170 8083 4189 8083 4191 8080
4191 8077 4196 8055 4199 8049 4204 8031
4208 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 258DEG 24KT 4186 8074
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
26Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1226 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024
PAZ002-003-251730-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
1226 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...
At 1225 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Guys Mills, or near Meadville, moving east at
40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail. Some rotation
has been observed with these storms.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Corry, Titusville, Union City, Riceville, Adamsville,
Lincolnville, Canadohta Lake, Guys Mills, Atlantic, Cochranton,
Saegertown, Jamestown, Hydetown, Blooming Valley, Townville,
Spartansburg, Elgin, Woodcock, and Geneva.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4162 7982 4149 8000 4148 8013 4149 8045
4200 7976 4199 7961 4162 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 251DEG 33KT 4163 8004
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
26The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 62 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:25 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Downed trees blocked OH-46, about seven-miles SSE of Canfield.
Trees downed along New Buffalo Road, about three-miles north of Columbia.
Power poles downed along OH-46 about one-mile NNW of Columbiana.
Hail up to quarter-size about one-mile north of Columbiana.
Barn destroyed about two-miles north of La Rue.
Large tree limb snapped and fell onto house in Van Buren. No structural damage noted.
Large tree limbs downed about one-mile east of Findlay.
Tree downed about one-mile southeast of Ottawa Hills.
Tree downed in Toledo.
Tree downed about one-mile northeast of Toledo.
Large tree limbs downed along western side of Norwalk.
Large tree limb downed in Ottawa Hills.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1190804, 1190825, 1190811, 1190815, 1190836, 1190838, 1190839, 1190844, 1190847, 1190848, 1190851, 1190842.