A line of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms moved into western North Carolina from east Tennessee during the afternoon. One of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts in Yancey County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A line of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms moved into western North Carolina from east Tennessee during the afternoon. One of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts in Yancey County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 12:54 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move off the Carolina coast early
tonight. A brief period of cool and dry high pressure is expected
Thursday before unsettled conditions return Friday and linger into
early next week. Another significant weather system will be
approaching by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1207 PM EST Wednesday: As expected, observed soundings
from GSP and CLT indicate an impressive elevated mixed layer
atop a stout capping inversion. This has thus far prevented any
prefrontal convection from developing, and should continue to do so
going forward. It remains possible that some shallow WAA showers
will develop along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment...but none
have been observed as of yet.
Otherwise...frontal forcing will be sufficient to lift and erode
the capping inversion and the 00z suite of high resolution CAM
guidance is in remarkable agreement depicting the evolution and
timing of a narrow "squeegee" line of convection anchored along
the frontal boundary. While a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible, the shallow nature of convection would favor predominately
showers in the convective line. A narrow plume of 100-300 J/kg
of surface-based instability will be possible ahead of the front
within a highly sheared environment. However, deep-layer shear
vectors along the convective line are oriented parallel to the
frontal boundary. This would support convection being undercut by
cold pools along with the front itself. Wind gust fields in the
CAM guidance support this and do not depict any substantial wind
gusts with the line of showers itself. While a few isolated strong
wind gusts cannot be discounted, an organized severe weather threat
is not anticipated.
Of greater impact, though, will be fairly gusty winds both ahead
of and behind the front. Strong warm advection ahead of the frontal
boundary and mixing up to 850mb will help transport frequent gusts
to the surface with 30-40mph gusts common. Behind the front, a
very tight pressure gradient across the mountains and 40-50kts of
850mb flow will support 45-60mph gusts across the higher mountain
elevations, especially along the downslope portions of the Blue
Ridge escarpment. The ongoing wind advisory remains well placed and
no changes were needed. A brief 2-3hr window may materialize along a
narrow swath of the escarpment for locally higher gusts encroaching
on high wind warning criteria (50kts). Some consideration was given
to adding a high elevation warning, but given the limited coverage
and duration will hold off for now. Otherwise, temperatures will be
quite warm today ahead of the front with continued warm advection
and compressional warming ahead of the frontal boundary supporting
very warm highs despite mostly cloudy skies. Low to mid 70s will be
common with a few readings in the upper 70s possible south of I-85
where the front will arrive last. Temperatures will crash quickly
behind the front and will be noticeably colder with overnight
lows falling into the low 20s across the higher mountains to low
30s in the lower Piedmont. Cold advection may briefly catch the
back edge of the precipitation shield over the mountains with
a fleeting shot of snow possible before profiles rapidly dry,
but this will be of no impact.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 am Wednesday: A split flow regime will be in place across
the western half of the Conus at the start of the short term, with a
southern stream short wave trough expected to eject from the Four
Corners to the southern Great Plains by the end of Thursday. Cool
and dry high pressure will migrate across our area, while cirrus
streaming out ahead of the southern stream wave will increase and
thicken across our area Thursday, likely shaving a couple of degrees
off the heating potential. Max temps are therefore expected to
struggle to reach climo...which will be in stark contrast to the
very warm temperatures experienced recently.
Height falls are expected to instigate surface wave development
along the baroclinic zone near the Gulf Coast Thu night into Friday,
and forcing and moisture will overspread the Southeast throughout
this time frame, likely reaching our CWA no later than Fri
afternoon...when PoPs increase to likely/categorical. With a ridge
of cool/dry air extending into our area from an anticyclone off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, falling precip is expected to result in
development of in-situ cold air damming Friday, resulting in max
temps about 10 degrees below climo in most areas. (If precip
develops earlier in the morning, even this may prove to be too
warm). Sufficient cold air may be in place at the onset of precip
for a wintry mix across the mtns...primarily the high elevations and
locations near the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment...where cold air
usually takes the longest to dislodge in CAD events. Nevertheless,
such a mix would be transient, as the position of the surface high
will be in poor position to supply sufficient advection of sub-
freezing wet bulb air to lock in cold air. The potential for light
icing may call for an eventual Winter Wx Advisory, but anything more
than that is highly unlikely based upon a consensus of current
guidance. Otherwise, much of the area should see a decent soak Fri
afternoon/evening, with qpf in the 0.25-0.75" range.
Fri night will see precip chances winding down and the beginning of
the end of in-situ CAD. Min temps are forecast to be around 5
degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 am Wednesday: As the next major storm system makes
landfall on the West Coast and quickly approaches the Rockies over
the weekend, resultant height falls will turn the low level flow
across our area in the wake of a departing short wave trough. This
will maintain a fetch of Gulf of Mexico low level moisture atop a
lingering/weakening surface ridge/cold air damming remnants. The
result will be periods of extensive cloud cover (especially and
night and in the morning) and token small (generally 10-30%) PoPs
through the weekend. Despite this, low level thickness values will
be anomalously high in deep SW flow upstream of an upper ridge
building near the East Coast in response to the western height
falls, and temps are forecast to quickly warm...to the tune of about
10 degrees above normal by the end of the weekend. The progressive
western system is expected to deflect through the Central Plains
into the Great Lakes early in the new work week, as upper ridging
builds strongly near the East Coast. As such, it would have minimal
direct impact on our CWA. In fact, guidance sources that do hint out
potential for organized precip chances for our area early next week
are more a result of ripples in the increasingly fast/low amplitude
flow aloft. However, there is no consensus at all in the global
models regarding this potential, and we simply maintain token small
PoPs and warming temps through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The big story remains the advancing
convective line, located across eastern TN just east of the NC-TN
state line as of 1730z. MVFR ceilings will briefly lift ahead of
this line, before visibility crashes in association with areas
of +SHRA. Expect this to be a fairly compact line of showers
and embedded thunder (confidence was too low for a TSRA mention
in the TAFs) so only 1-2 hours of precipitation advertised at any
of the terminals. Once the line passes, winds will immediately
shift to the NW and clearing to VFR will be imminent. May see some
pesky cirrus remain across the region for much of the overnight
and Thursday, although conditions will be drier and VFR.
Outlook: The pattern will turn wet again with rain and associated
restrictions early Friday. Unsettled weather will last through
the weekend.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NCZ033-049-050-052-
053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MPR/TW
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MPRHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-291530- Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains- Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains- Polk Mountains- 1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of thunderstorms will cross the region today. A few of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-056>058-068>072-082- 502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-291530- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Madison-Swain-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke- Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville- Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of thunderstorms will cross the region today. A few of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ052-059-062>064-291530- Haywood-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- 1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of thunderstorms will cross the region today. A few of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Krentz
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
118 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
NCZ048>052-281845-
Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
118 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EST...
At 118 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Greeneville to 10 miles south
of Newport to 12 miles southwest of Gatlinburg. Movement was east at
65 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Hot Springs, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky
Mountains-Cataloochee, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Smoky
Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee, Buladean,
Ramseytown, and Waterville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3615 8214 3589 8248 3561 8310 3559 8347
3567 8334 3566 8330 3576 8316 3578 8299
3588 8290 3593 8292 3595 8287 3593 8281
3600 8277 3606 8264 3603 8259 3597 8261
3595 8256 3601 8246 3611 8237 3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 261DEG 55KT 3607 8283 3581 8320 3560 8366
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ARKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
156 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
NCZ033-048>050-053-501-503-505-281930-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Avery NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
156 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...AVERY...
NORTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE...YANCEY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EST...
At 155 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Beech Mountain to 5 miles east
of Marshall. Movement was east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Marshall, Newland, Mars Hill, Blowing Rock
In Caldwell County, Banner Elk, Elk Park, Bakersville, and Beech
Mountain In Avery County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3621 8191 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
3611 8181 3612 8169 3612 8159 3576 8208
3576 8274 3615 8215 3611 8213 3610 8208
3613 8205 3612 8203 3625 8195 3626 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 261DEG 69KT 3620 8202 3582 8259
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ARKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
GAZ010-017-SCZ101-104-281930-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
159 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HABERSHAM...RABUN AND
WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EST...
At 159 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Hiawassee, or 5 miles west of Lake Burton, moving
east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lake
Burton, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park, Black Rock Mountain
State Park, and Long Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 8365 3484 8366 3488 8366 3490 8363
3491 8363 3499 8317 3466 8316 3468 8334
3469 8334 3468 8336 3470 8364 3473 8362
3476 8363 3479 8367 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 263DEG 51KT 3481 8365
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ARKThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:00 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down in the western part of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1164455.