Scattered thunderstorms developed across the North Carolina mountains during the afternoon. One of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts in Buncombe County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed across the North Carolina mountains during the afternoon. One of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts in Buncombe County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 1:59 PM EST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the weekend, with the best coverage most likely in the afternoons
and evenings. Small chances of rain lingering overnight in the
North Carolina mountains. Very hot and humid weather will continue
through Friday, but a weak cold front arriving this weekend will
drop temperatures to more seasonally normal hot weather while
providing better chances for rain Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 236 PM EDT Thursday: It's a sunny day across most of the
western Carolinas, but storms are brewing over the NC mountains.
We're situated on the northeastern periphery of a robust upper
ridge, which has put us in the path of a series of vort lobes
dropping down out of the Midwest and Cumberland Plateau like
spokes on a wheel. This is good enough to have spun up a line of
convective cells along the Appalachian Ridge, in an environment
boasting some 2500-3000 J/kg sbCAPE and around 15-20kts of effective
bulk shear. Meanwhile, 850mb temps are running as high as 20-21
degrees C, and surface temps are already in the low to mid 90s
outside the mountains with several hours to go before peak heating.
CAMs are in remarkably good agreement on today's convective
evolution...depicting the current line of convection over the
mountains making tracks all the way across the CWA. Upon exiting
the mountains, this line will encounter increasingly higher bulk
shear...with the 12z HREF suggesting essentially a 100% chance of
20kts+ in the SC Upstate in particular, and at least a 50% chance
of 25kts or greater...more than enough for some organization and
an elevated threat of damaging winds. Moreover, forecast profiles
depict a slot of dry air aloft, particularly pronounced over the
western zones. This will likely boost DCAPE values and further
enhance the risk of damaging winds, even with more isolated,
disorganized cells that develop. Indeed, the latest 17z HRRR
depicts areas of 850-1000 J/kg DCAPE in the Upstate this evening.
Meanwhile, as temperatures soar into the mid- to upper-90s outside
the NC mountains this afternoon, we're still on track to hit
advisory criteria, with heat indices as high as 107-109 degrees
expected across the southern fringe of the forecast area, and triple
digits for essentially all non-mountain zones. Therefore, the Heat
Advisory already in place for the SC Upstate and a few zones in the
NC Piedmont will be allowed to continue through 7 PM this evening.
Tonight, lingering debris cloudiness will somewhat moderate
temperatures, keeping lows in the mid-70s. Patchy fog and some
low stratus will be likely even outside the mountains, primarily
in locations which wind up receiving a lot of rain this afternoon.
CAMs still depict another decaying MCS riding its own fumes down the
Cumberland Plateau after midnight...but by this time, there'll be no
instability left, and it seems pretty unlikely that anything more
than some stray showers will survive crossing the Appalachians.
So...chance PoPs are warranted over the mountains through the
overnight, but not east/south of the Blue Ridge Escarpment.
Tomorrow, another line of convection will develop during the
afternoon, in an environment once again ripe with instability,
and even more DCAPE, if perhaps less bulk shear. That may not be
an issue, though, as a cold front digging through the Tennessee
Valley by this point in time looks to provide enough low-level
convergence to help organize convection into a line regardless of
shear profiles.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 PM Thursday: A near 600dam H5 upper ridge will remain
centered over the Four Corners region tomorrow night while a
northern stream shortwave trough drops out of the Midwest and into
the Appalachians. The trough axis will become centered along the
spine of the Appalachians by Saturday morning with an associated
surface cold front pushing into the mountains. How far east the
boundary makes it through the day remains uncertain and will have
considerable implications for the PoP forecast. The GFS solution
remains the farthest east while the ECMWF/CMC depict a slower
progression of the boundary. Either way, the highest PoPs will
likely be confined to along and south of I-85 with isolated to
scattered coverage farther west. QPF patterns are indicative of the
potential for loosely organized convection east of the front with
storms developing across the eastern tier of the forecast area
before pushing farther into the Midlands/Piedmont. Several of these
storms could become strong to severe owing to surface based CAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg, modest mid-level lapse rates, and weak 20-25kts of
deep-layer vertical wind shear. Any organized segments/clusters
along composite cold pools could produce locally damaging winds.
By Sunday, the trough axis will slide east of the mountains, but the
front will make little progress and likely stall as upper flow
becomes boundary parallel. This will allow for rain chances to
continue across the far eastern tier of the forecast area with
mainly diurnally driven convection along/ahead of the boundary. Once
again, a few of these storms could also become strong to marginally
severe, but exact location of the front will dictate where any of
this activity develops. Temperatures through the weekend will be in
the mid 80s to low 90s and no heat issues are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 251 PM Thursday: The forecast period picks back up next week
with active northern stream flow lifting back north into the far
northern tier of the country. At the same time, upper ridging will
build back across the area with forcing becoming nebulous. This will
allow for a noticeable drop off in PoPs with only isolated coverage
each day and temperatures hovering around climo. The one major
wrench in the forecast is how a tropical wave currently moving
across Hispaniola evolves. 12z global guidance and their respective
ensembles depict very large spreads in possible solutions, should a
tropical cyclone even manage to develop. The wave envelope will
become elongated and what portion of the wave develops will play a
role in eventual track, along with the large scale synoptic pattern
over the CONUS. Three main clusters exist in the guidance with one
cluster favoring a possible track east of Florida, another cluster
favoring west of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and a third cluster
that traps the wave beneath the upper ridge with any cyclone
meandering along the Gulf Coast/northern Florida. Thus, any
implications on the sensible weather across the Southern
Appalachians remains highly uncertain with well below average
forecast confidence. Aligning the forecast with any given solution
at this stage would be a poor bet given the drastic spread and lack
of even run-to-run consistency. So, while it's worth keeping an eye
on, it's far too early to speculate on any impacts to the forecast.
With that being said, will keep low end PoPs through the period for
diurnal convection and will refrain from advertising any sensible
weather stemming from a potential tropical cyclone.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals this afternoon as
another round of convection starts picking up steam across the
NC mountains. Parameter space is good for some more organized
convection, with most of the short-fuse guidance depicting a loose
line of TSRA making tracks across the terminal forecast area through
late evening. At a minimum, added VCSH/VCTS to all sites; other
than KAND, all sites also received TEMPOs adjusted to the timing
of the latest HREF output...generally between 4-5pm LT and sunset.
Some showers may linger later, but it should generally dry out
after sundown, with little more than some debris cloudiness slowly
thinning out after midnight. Another round of fog and low stratus
is expected in the mountains, and some of the hi-res guidance
indicates it'll expand into the Piedmont/Foothills (which makes
sense, given those zones are expected to get decent rainfall
this evening). For now, confidence was too low / fog expected
to be too patchy and localized for a mention in the GSP/GMU, AND,
and CLT TAFs...but MVFR to IFR VIS restrictions are advertised in
the AVL and HKY TAFs, and this'll need to be further evaluated for
future TAF issuances, once this afternoon's convective prospects
materialize. Tomorrow, restrictions will lift quickly, and another
round of afternoon/evening convection is likely, but the bulk of
it will fall after the end of the 18z TAF period.
Outlook: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
through the weekend, with the mountains having the best chance
for activity. Fog/low stratus will be possible each morning,
especially in the mountain valleys and over areas that received
heavy rain the previous day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ070-071-082.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...MPRHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 438 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-020845- Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union NC-Cherokee- York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville- Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 438 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will pose a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rainfall. A few storms may also produce damaging wind gusts or hail up to the size of quarters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Heat index again may rise over 105 on Friday, which could again lead to an increased risk of heat-related illness. Some thunderstorms that develop Friday or Saturday could produce damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-072- 501>510-SCZ101>103-020845- Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey- Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Cleveland-Lincoln-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- 438 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will pose a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rainfall. A few storms may also produce damaging wind gusts or hail up to the size of quarters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Some thunderstorms that develop Friday or Saturday could produce damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. Wimberley
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
204 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
NCZ048-052-011845-
Haywood NC-Madison NC-
204 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTH
CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 204 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Newport, or 5 miles east of Smoky Mountains-Big
Creek, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Spring Creek, Max Patch, and Fines Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3579 8283 3567 8303 3579 8308 3579 8305
3577 8300 3578 8299 3579 8296 3581 8296
3584 8293 3584 8292 3586 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 322DEG 8KT 3578 8303
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
209 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
GAZ010-NCZ062-011900-
Rabun GA-Macon NC-
209 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL RABUN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Clayton, or near Dillard, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Dillard, Sky Valley, Black Rock Mountain
State Park, and Otto.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3508 8342 3494 8326 3485 8342 3499 8350
3500 8348 3500 8351 3501 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 322DEG 8KT 3497 8341
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
219 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
NCZ053-011900-
Buncombe NC-
219 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 219 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Downtown Asheville, or near Leicester, moving southeast
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, West Asheville, Biltmore Forest, Bent Creek,
Leicester, Enka, B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville, B.R.
Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum, East Asheville, and
Skyland.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3553 8249 3545 8269 3545 8270 3543 8274
3553 8278 3554 8277 3556 8278 3557 8277
3558 8278 3559 8278 3560 8280 3562 8281
3568 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 328DEG 14KT 3561 8274
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ101-104-011900-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
233 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...SOUTHWESTERN RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Clarkesville, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto,
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, and Lakemont.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3454 8362 3459 8364 3462 8364 3466 8366
3468 8364 3473 8362 3475 8363 3482 8357
3482 8347 3475 8329 3466 8319 3432 8339
3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8347 3449 8354
3443 8362 3450 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 307DEG 15KT 3471 8357
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
NCZ053-064-065-509-SCZ103-011930-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
244 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE AND NORTH
CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Downtown Asheville, or near Asheville Airport, moving
southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hendersonville, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Flat Rock, Etowah,
Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Saluda, and B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To
The Nc Arboretum.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3544 8273 3549 8263 3552 8252 3534 8231
3524 8230 3518 8235 3515 8254 3515 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 326DEG 24KT 3545 8260
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
307 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
GAZ010-SCZ101-104-011930-
Rabun GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
307 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 306 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Walhalla, or 5 miles north of Oconee State Park,
moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Oconee State Park, Devils Fork State Park, Pine
Mountain, and Mountain Rest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3492 8325 3500 8316 3500 8311 3501 8306
3501 8305 3492 8291 3482 8299 3475 8308
3481 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 307DEG 11KT 3494 8314
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPThe Greer radar (KGSP), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:10 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public reported (via Social Media) one tree and several large limbs blown down in the Enka area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1211419.