A coastal low pressure system brought a widespread rainfall to eastern New York during the early morning hours on March 7, 2024. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain fell across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A coastal low pressure system brought a widespread rainfall to eastern New York during the early morning hours on March 7, 2024. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain fell across the area. This rain was enough to result in some localized areal flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 7, 1:01 AM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 101 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Steady moderate to locally heavy rain is expected this evening and overnight tonight as a cold front and coastal low interact over the region. Drier weather returns with continued mild temperatures Thursday into Friday before another chance for rain and high elevation snow arrives this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .Update...As of 100 AM...Moderate rain continues across much of the CWA this morning, though KENX radar shows indications of lightening in some areas. Our cold front continues to slowly track south and east through the region this morning, currently located just south of Albany, draped through portions of the Souther Tier, Mid-Hudson Valley and into western New England. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that the 850 hPa isotherm remains displaced well to our northwest this morning, limiting cold air advection behind the front and leading to temperatures having only fallen into the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. South and east of the front, where ample warm air advection from the coastal low remains dominant, temperatures remain in the upper 40s to low 50s. A secondary circulation has formed just south of the Long Island coast this morning, helping to enhance low to mid-level FGEN mainly for areas east of our region, though SPC mesoanalysis shows this area dips into Litchfield County and portions of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. This has helped to reinforce rain where some lighter spots had previously developed. According to the latest 12-hour MRMS QPE, anywhere from about 0.5" to upwards of 1.4" of rain has fallen across the area with additional totals maximizing at about 0.5" to 1" expected through later this morning. These larger values are expected within the Capital District and into the Berkshires and Southern Vermont with smaller values of 0.1" to less than 0.5" expected elsewhere. Minor adjustments were made to the forecast with this update to represent latest obs and trends. Please see the previous forecast for additional details... .Previous...Ultimately the broad ascent from PVA ahead of the coastal low will tap into the abundant low-level moisture behind the wind shift boundary, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall into far southern and southeastern areas. The boundary slowly approaching from the northwest will see associated precipitation become more widespread, eventually merging with the southern region as frontogenetic deformation flow interacts with the boundary and abundant low-level moisture spreads north. Areas behind this surface boundary, namely to the northwest in the southern Adirondacks, will likely see the lowest precipitation totals from this system before rainfall ends overnight. Elsewhere, steady moderate to heavy precipitation will develop later this afternoon in southern zones, spreading north into the Capital District this evening, and persisting through the night before diminishing in coverage as the best forcing for ascent exits to the east. QPF expected from this system remains in the 1.25-2" range for most of the region from the Capital District south and east, with 0.75-1.25" north and west where rainfall ends earlier. Ensemble guidance continues to show relatively low probabilities for more than 2" of rainfall, with the most likely location of those higher totals in far southeastern zones in northwestern Connecticut. The principal hazard continues to be nuisance flooding of low-lying, urban, and poor drainage areas, particularly from the Capital District south and east where the heavier rain will likely set up. River flooding remains possible, particularly on the Lower Housatonic River, as well as potentially the Hoosic or other rivers draining western Massachusetts or the Taconics, but NERFC guidance continues to place no forecast points in the service area above flood stage. Temperatures through tonight remain seasonably mild during ongoing precipitation, with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s across the region beneath overcast skies. Some spots in the southwestern Adirondacks may dip into the upper 20s if skies are able to begin clearing before dawn. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As the coastal low and best forcing for ascent exits to the east, some scattered shower activity may linger into Thursday morning before tapering across the region by Thursday afternoon. However, as the coastal low passes south of the region late tonight, north winds funneled along the Champlain and Hudson Valleys will bring breezy conditions, with gusts up of 20-30 mph possible. Brief surface and upper riding subsequently builds in from the west, resulting in dry weather locally Thursday evening through Friday. Temperatures cool slightly on Thursday behind the cold frontal passage, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s in high terrain and upper 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. Temperatures dip into the mid 20s to low 30s across the region Thursday night, before rebounding to mild afternoon highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A complex storm system is expected to move across the region mainly from late Saturday through Sunday night. Main trend in the guidance since yesterday is for a stronger coastal cyclone over New England and a deeper upper low tracking from the Great Lakes through the Northeast. The main result is a slower evolution and thus timing of precip onset delayed until later Sat. This has been reflected in the latest forecast. The primary surface cyclone will be tracking NE from lower Great Lakes to near the Quebec/Ontario border through Sat. Southerly flow will steadily strengthen (v-comp anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) ahead of the cyclone, transporting moisture northward into our area with PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV by Sat night. Our area will initially be on the warm side of the storm Sat through Sat night prior to the secondary cyclone intensifying near the coast Sun morning. So rain is expected to be the main precip type until Sun, except for higher terrain areas of the S. Adirondacks and S. Greens where rain will mix with then change to snow Sat night. There could be some hydro issues depending on rainfall amounts and when/where rain changes to snow. Ground conditions will be fairly moist leading into this event, so will continue to monitor. Heaviest QPF > 1" looks to be across favored upslope areas, with some to most of the precip being snow in these areas. As the coastal cyclone tracks NE across eastern New England, colder air aloft will filter in across our region as the upper low moves overhead on Sun. Temperatures still likely too warm for anything but rain in lower elevations, but higher elevations north of Albany and the Mohawk Valley will likely have snow with moderate accumulations possible. Even the Catskills, Taconics and Berkshires may start to accumulate snow on Sun. The storm consolidates over coastal Maine Sun night, with all snow expected in mountains areas and even a rain/snow mix in the valleys. A light accumulation could occur in some lower elevations locations, with moderate amounts possible in the mountains. WPC superensemble still indicating ~50 percent probs for > 3" snow in the S. Adirondacks, S. Greens and N. Berkshires. There could be heavier amounts, especially through Monday where additional wrap-around/upslope snow occurs as the storm becomes vertically stacked over the Gulf of Maine with NW cyclonic flow in our region. Winter headlines may eventually be needed. Drying should occur in N-S valleys on Mon, although it will become windy in the NW flow regime. NW winds could gust 30-40+ mph. The storm finally pulls away by Tue, with a more neutral NW flow regime setting up. So it will remain breezy, but should be dry. Wind speeds will decrease by Wed as surface high pressure moves in, with continued dry conditions and temperatures trending above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z Friday...Low pressure will track across southern New England through daybreak, and off the New England coast later today. Area of light to moderate rain will continue across much of eastern NY/western New England through daybreak, with mainly MVFR Vsbys and MVFR/IFR Cigs. As the rain decreases in intensity after 08Z/Thu, Vsbys could improve to VFR. Rain should gradually taper off from west to east between roughly 12Z-16Z/Wed, however some light showers or drizzle could linger at KPSF a few hours later. Mainly VFR Vsbys are expected, however MVFR Cigs may linger until mid to late afternoon at most TAF sites, and possibly until around or after sunset at KPSF. Generally clear skies are expected for Thursday night with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will increase from the north to northeast to 8-14 KT with some gusts of 20-25 KT toward and after daybreak, and will persist much of Thursday. Wind gusts should diminish after sunset, with north to northwest winds decreasing to 5-10 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... A complex interaction of an approaching coastal low with abundant low-level moisture and a nearly stationary frontal boundary straddling the region will result in widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the region. As favorable dual-jet dynamics act to deepen the coastal low, a strong southerly low-level jet about its eastern flank will decelerate within a region of deformation, acting to both further intensity the frontal boundary over the interior Northeast and result in convergence of water vapor transport over southern New England. The heaviest rainfall will likely be associated with the potent moisture convergence, while areas north of the surface boundary will see comparatively lighter totals as precipitation ends earlier. Despite the fairly progressive nature of the system, efficient rainfall processes and robust forcing will yield a soaking rainfall across the region, with total QPF generally expected to be 1.25-1.75". In northwestern zones within the southern Adirondacks, the earlier end to rainfall in conjunction with a farther separation from peak forcing for ascent will result in lower totals of 0.5-1". The highest totals will be in northwestern Connecticut and neighboring zones closest to peak ascent and moisture convergence, where totals will approach or possibly exceed 2" by midday Thursday. WPC has continued to assess a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in northwestern Connecticut, while a Marginal Risk is maintained generally along and east of the Hudson Valley. Despite the ample rainfall, confidence in any potential for flooding remains low and Flood Watches have not been issued. Antecedent conditions through February were very dry for most of the forecast area, with the lack of February snowfall also limiting the potential for snowmelt adding to runoff. The progressive nature of the system will also aid in reducing impacts as the residence time over the region will be relatively short. Latest river stage forecasts from NERFC continue to show no forecast points in the service area reaching flood stage, although a few do come close to minor flood, most likely in the Lower Housatonic basin and possibly in other basins draining southern portions of western New England or the Taconics. The most likely hazard is assessed to be nuisance flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas across the region, and these instances will likely be handled with short-fuse advisory products as needed. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Gant/Main/Picard SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...KL HYDROLOGY...Picard
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 411 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-071200- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer- Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren- Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 411 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Moderate to heavy rain tonight may lead to localized poor drainage or urbanized flooding, mainly in western New England. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A plowable snowfall is possible Saturday night into Monday across higher elevations of the Southern Adirondacks, Southern Greens, and northern Berkshires. Winter weather headlines may eventually be needed if confidence increases. Strong northwest winds are possible late Sunday night through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Route 5s was blocked between Sprakers Hill Road and Borden Road due to flooding.
U.S. Route 20, Western Avenue, was closed at the intersection of Fuller Road in the City of Albany due to flooding.
Flooding was reported along State Route 8 at U.S. Route 9 near Chestertown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1166434, 1168042, 1168044.