Damaging Winds in New York, June 30, 2024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, some of which could be strong to severe, mainly south and
east of Albany. Monday will be cooler and less humid with
isolated showers possible. Fair and warmer conditions return for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT...Our area remains within a very moist air
mass ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that is currently
located over western New York. Dewpoints are in the lower to
middle 70s, with temps already reaching into the 80s in many
valley areas. SPC Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values are already
in the 1000-1500 K/jg range for many locations. Although the 12z
KALY sounding showed fairly weak lapse rates aloft, the ample
instability will come together with abundant shear (0-6 km bulk
shear values around 40 kts) to allow for a risk for severe
storms. While a severe storm can't be ruled out across the
entire area, the highest risk will be for areas south and east
of the Capital Region, where SPC has upgraded to an "enhanced
risk" (level 3 of 5) for today. The main risk will be for
damaging winds, as strong unidirectional flow will be favorable
for damaging winds within bowing segments and along strongest
parts of lines and clusters.

One small line has already formed across the southern tier of NY
and this will be heading towards the Catskills soon. These
storms look to be strengthening over the last few radar scans. CAMs
suggest at least one or two lines of storms will be developing
and passing through southern parts of the area for late this
morning and into this afternoon.

Any thunderstorms could contain torrential downpours today given
PWAT's 1.50-1.75" and some possibility for training and backbuilding
of cells. However, coverage of storms and speed of the storms
should help limit the threat for flash flooding, so this is more
of an isolated threat for today.

High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s in many valley
areas today, and possibly the upper 80s across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley, where heat indices could briefly reach the
mid 90s before cooling from thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers/thunderstorms should taper off this
evening across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Additional
isolated/scattered showers may develop later tonight as upper
level trough approaches. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy and
turning less humid with low temps mainly in the 50s.

Upper level trough will traverse the region Monday, and may
produce isolated showers, especially for areas east of the
Hudson River. There could be enough instability for some thunder
within the tallest convective elements. Otherwise, it will
become breezy and less humid, with max temps mainly in the 70s
in valley areas and 65-70 across higher terrain areas.

Mainly clear and quite cool Monday night, with low temps in the
upper 40s to lower/mid 50s for most areas. Some portions of the
southern Adirondacks could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Mostly sunny and warmer for Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies
and milder temps Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday rebounding into
the lower/mid 80s for lower elevations and mid/upper 70s across
higher terrain. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered off the New England coast as
southerly return flow resumes across the region. A warm front will
lift northward across the area. The best forcing will remain to our
north and west so another dry day is expected. Highs will rise into
the lower to mid-80s across the valleys and mid to upper 70s across
the higher elevations with continued comfortable humidity levels.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking well
northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front during this time. Instability looks
rather weak so the severe weather threat looks low at this time.
Precipitable water values may increase to over 1.50 inches, so some
heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor trends over the coming
days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very warm and humid day for July
Fourth with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across many valley
areas with some lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s to
lower 80s in the higher elevations).

The front looks to lift back northward as a warm front Friday into
next weekend as another upper trough approaches from the west. This
will keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms around each day for
the rest of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z/Mon...Cigs will trend to VFR this morning along with
mainly dry weather. Showers west of KALB are expected to
dissipate before arriving later this morning. Even if they do
arrive, no restrictions to cigs or vsbys are expected. A round
of showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and
track eastward, mainly affecting KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Best
thunderstorm chances are at KPOU/KPSF where TEMPOS for
thunderstorms were included between 17- 20z/Sun. Only a shower
TEMPO was included at KALB. IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in
any shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Strong winds are
possible in any thunderstorm at KPOU. It is also possible a
second line of showers and thunderstorms passes through KPOU
after 20z/Sun, but will only include a VCSH for then and allow
later TAF issuances make adjustments if needed.

Showers will end and clouds will briefly decrease in coverage
before patchy low clouds develop overnight along with an
isolated shower mainly near KGFL. KPSF is most favored for MVFR
cigs. Will leave all other TAF sites SCT for now due to lower
confidence.

Wind will become south to southwesterly at 10-15 kt with a few
higher gusts to around 25 kt, then shift west to northwesterly
this afternoon and evening at similar speeds. Wind will become
northerly at around 10 kt overnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Abundant moisture (PWAT's 1.5-2 inches, especially areas
south/east of Albany) and relatively warm cloud depths will
promote efficient rainfall rates in showers and thunderstorms
today. Rainfall rates could reach or exceed one inch/hour within
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Albany this
afternoon.

Localized flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
will be possible where thunderstorms occur. Isolated flash
flooding is also possible where multiple heavy downpours occur.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
410 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-011100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
410 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of western New England,
the mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics of eastern New York
within a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms across the remainder of eastern New York.
Isolated to scattered damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be
possible. In addition, a tornado or two can not be ruled out within
the Slight Risk area.

Locally heavy rain will be possible within thunderstorms. Isolated
flash flooding is possible in any areas where multiple heavy
downpours occur.

Heat indices may briefly reach the mid 90s across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, and
again on Saturday.

Heat indices may reach the mid 90s across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
810 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

NYZ051>053-058>061-301245-
Eastern Albany NY-Eastern Columbia NY-Western Rensselaer NY-
Eastern Greene NY-Western Columbia NY-Western Greene NY-
Western Albany NY-
810 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
SOUTHERN ALBANY...NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN RENSSELAER
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EDT...

At 810 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westerlo, or 16 miles northeast of Hunter, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham, New Baltimore, Ravena, Coxsackie, Valatie, Kinderhook,
Coeymans, Ghent, Stockport, Stuyvesant, Coeymans Hollow,
Dormansville, Rossman, Rayville, Result, Earlton, Otter Hook, Riders
Mills, Sunside, and Climax.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 21B.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 7416 4250 7357 4249 7357 4249 7351
      4228 7355 4234 7417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 273DEG 33KT 4242 7407

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frugis