A weak upper and surface trough moved across a moderately unstable airmass across Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties in northern NY.
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The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A weak upper and surface trough moved across a moderately unstable airmass across Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties in northern NY. This produced scattered showers and thunderstorms with one thunderstorm producing a isolated weak EF-0 tornado in the Pikes Corner area of Fowler, NY.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 11, 9:06 AM EST, 4 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1006 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will develop today and tomorrow, but overall rainfall will be relatively light and most of the time it will be dry. A couple thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons. It will be a cooler stretch as well, and temperatures will remain slightly below climatological normals. There will be a drying trend toward mid-week, and temperatures will rise modestly. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1005 AM EDT Sunday...Minimal changes necessary with updates limited to matching temperatures more closely to observations. Previous Discussion...Some patchy fog has developed across the climatologically favored areas of eastern Vermont, but this fog will lift shortly after sunrise. Temperatures in these areas also fell a little lower than forecast due to the boundary layer being able to decouple. There is only a thin stripe of clouds from Lake Ontario across the region but they will increase this morning with diurnal heating. Previous Discussion follows... A deep upper-level low will build into the region today and linger for the start of the work week. Currently, lake- effect showers are trying to make their way into the North Country of New York, but they have not been having too much success. Flow will turn more southwesterly as the night goes on and this will help bring them from Jefferson/Lewis counties up into St. Lawrence County. A strip of lake-effect clouds has been able to reach the North Country and it should remain there for the rest of the night. Even though the airmass is cold enough to make lake-effect, the lowest the snow levels will drop will be around 7,500 ft, so they will still be a couple thousand feet above the highest peaks. The coldest air aloft will move through late in the day today and into this evening. Combined with diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers will develop across the region, particularly over northern areas. A few thundershowers are possible and the heaviest showers could contain pea sized hail. The convection dies down overnight. Highs will be slightly below climatological normals, with temperatures only reaching the upper 60s and 70s. Temperatures will fall into the 50s tomorrow night for most areas. Continued boundary layer winds and some lingering cloud cover will prevent the colder hollows from falling any lower. It should also prevent much fog formation. Monday will be very similar to today, with scattered showers and a few possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Fast storm motion and unfavorable atmospheric conditions for heavy rain will prevent any flooding threat during this period. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM EDT Sunday...Any lingering showers wl quickly dissipate on Monday evening with building sfc high pres from the central Great Lakes. Areas of patchy fog are possible, especially with any location that receives precip on Monday aftn, with greatest potential in deeper protected valleys. Little change is anticipated on Tues with slightly less moisture/instability but still nw flow aloft. Cannot completely rule out a pop up shower acrs the trrn, but given deep layer moisture in place and limited instability areal coverage wl be <10%. Progged 925mb temps are similar to previous couple of days with values btwn 18-19C, supporting highs mid 70s to lower 80s most locations. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s with comfortable humidity values, very typical for mid August acrs our cwa. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Sunday...Long wave pattern continues to support cyclonic northwest flow aloft acrs our cwa associated with mid/upper lvl trof over northern Maine/eastern Canada. This wl result in near normal temps and a 25- 35% probability of showers during the aftn hours on Weds/Thurs. Have noted both the GFS/ECWMF indicate the greatest instability and slightly better mid lvl moisture associated with s/w energy in the flow aloft is on Thurs aftn. However, lift and moisture is minimal and feel as event becomes closer pops wl be reduced. NBM shows likely pops for Thurs and this seems too high based on available moisture and instability, but we wl continue to monitor latest trends. By late week into next weekend timing/magnitude of next mid/upper lvl trof approaching our cwa is poorly modeled attm. Have continued with some chc pops for now as uncertainty in timing and amplification varies from one run to another with a large spread noted btwn different pieces of guidance and their associated ensemble members. Temps generally near normal for both highs and lows with daily readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows mid 50s to l/m 60s. No impactful or significant weather is anticipated in the next 5 to 7 days, along with no widespread heat and humidity. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday... VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours. There will be scattered showers and the possibility for a couple embedded thunderstorms today, particularly across northern areas. The heaviest showers could briefly lower visibilities to MVFR or even IFR. These showers will fall apart this evening. Winds will increase during the day today, reaching peak gusts of 15-20 KTs at most terminals. The wind direction will mostly be southwesterly. Winds will lighten a bit tonight, dropping below 10KTs at all terminals. Fog formation appears unlikely tonight but it cannot be completely ruled out at MPV. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Myskowski
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-120745- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor- Eastern Windsor- 332 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:18 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A brief tornado occurred south of Country Club road near Matoon Creek. EF-0 damage based on NY State Homeland Security and Emergency Services drone footage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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