Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in New Mexico, July 20 to 22, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A Flood Watch is in effect again today for storms
producing locally heavy rainfall. Burn scar areas will be at risk
first where storms develop over the mountains, before generally
moving south and spreading out over surrounding lower elevations
late afternoon and evening. This general weather pattern will
persist each day this weekend and well into next week, threatening
flash flooding where locally heavy rainfall occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Surface high pressure building down the Front Range this afternoon
will allow surface winds to veer out of the east across eastern NM.
Increasing moisture behind this front with greater upslope lift
along the central mt chain and another upper level shortwave moving
south from CO will trigger significantly greater coverage of storms
with heavy rainfall today. Initiation will occur between 11am and
1pm across the northern high terrain. Storms will move south and
develop on convective outflows into nearby highlands and valleys.
This is a similar scenario to the past few days but with greater
coverage and larger footprints of heavy rainfall. PWATs are also
higher so rainfall rates will be higher along with some training
cells possible in north-south steering flow. A key difference from
the past few days is that a somewhat organized area of rain and
storms is expected to continue tonight along the central mt chain
and nearby highlands southward to Lincoln and Chaves counties.
Rainfall rates are not likely to be as intense in this cluster
however a longer period of light to moderate rainfall may occur
after localized heavy rainfall from this afternoon. The NBM and HREF
24-hr probability for >0.50" QPF today and tonight favors the Sangre
de Cristo Mts, the northeast highlands, the Sandia/Manzano Mts, the
lower RGV, Gila region, and the Sacramento Mts. This further primes
soils for more significant flash flooding leading into Sunday.

Another backdoor surface front will move into northeast NM late
tonight and serve as another focus for storm development Sunday.
Given the potential for widespread cloud cover lingering over the
rest of central and western NM, initiation may be slower than past
days. However, the approaching convectively-aided boundary from
northeast NM will eventually light up the central mt chain with
another round of storms with very heavy rainfall. This activity may
once again organize into a cluster of rain and storms as another
upper level shortwave moves south from CO late Sunday. NBM 24-hr
probabilities for >0.50" are even higher on Sunday and over a more
broad area of central and eastern NM. A few strong to perhaps severe
storms are also possible on both Saturday and Sunday in this pattern
given effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40kt with abundant
moisture and surface-based instability. Another large Flash Flood
Watch is very likely for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A heightened risk of flash flooding continues Sunday
night into early Monday morning from monsoon convection once again
tracking southward across northern and central NM. Storm coverage
looks to be enhanced by a backdoor frontal boundary pushing through
eastern NM. Areas along the central mountain chain will be at the
highest risk for flash flooding during this time, including area
burn scars and places that have already seen repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall. Convection will steadily wane through early Monday
morning. Monday will start with remnant showers over eastern NM and
continued cooler temperatures there behind the backdoor frontal
boundary. Forecast high temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s
across eastern NM, warmer west of the central mountain chain. With
the monsoon high still over the Great Basin and an upper level
troughing pattern over the Great Plains, storm initiation will again
favor the high terrain of western and central NM. Storms will track
southward, spreading out over surrounding lower elevation areas.
Convective potential over the eastern plains looks to be subdued due
to the cooler surface conditions yielding lesser instability.
Therefore, the threat for more locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will favor areas along and west of the central mountain
chain Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday see the same general weather pattern continue
with NM still stuck between the monsoon high over the Great Basin
and the troughing pattern over the Great Plains. Expect repeated
rounds of afternoon storms developing over the mountains by 12pm to
1pm MDT before tracking southward over surrounding lower elevations
late day and evening. High temperatures rebound across the eastern
plains during this time. The monsoon high begins to be shunted
southward, with its main axis tilting more SW-NE due to an upper
level storm system pushing through the PacNW. This will push its
influence more over the Four Corners area. Monsoon moisture will
still be present over the forecast area, and afternoon storms will
still favor development over the high terrain near mid-day and early
afternoon. Steering flow however will favor storms moving more south
to southwesterly, lessening precipitation chances over the eastern
plains Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Northerly flow aloft and above normal moisture content over much
of New Mexico will continue to support scattered thunderstorm
activity this afternoon. HREF and associated members have
convective initiation from 18Z to 20Z today mostly over high
terrain and N NM which then pushes S/SE over the afternoon.
VCTS/TSRA timed accordingly for TAFs based on latest guidance but
storms are already beginning to develop a little earlier than
guidance. Timing of storms adjusted based on this. Most terminals
will have storms this afternoon but it might be later in the
evening/night for KTCC and KROW. After 06Z/09Z convection ends
through the morning hours. Storms tomorrow will likely hinge on
recovery of the atmosphere to support storms which may end up
providing at least some stability to overcome.

Overpeck

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next
7 to 10 days. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will continue each day through the middle of next week. The greatest
coverage of storms with heavy rainfall is expected today thru Monday
followed by a gradual decrease beginning Tuesday. Storm motion will
be generally north to south between 10 and 20 mph with erratic and
stationary storms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  65  90  63 /  30  40  30  30
Dulce...........................  87  49  84  46 /  80  50  90  50
Cuba............................  86  55  80  52 /  90  60  70  70
Gallup..........................  90  56  86  53 /  70  60  60  40
El Morro........................  83  56  79  54 /  80  70  90  80
Grants..........................  87  58  81  56 /  80  70  60  70
Quemado.........................  87  57  82  55 /  90  80  80  90
Magdalena.......................  86  60  79  58 /  80  80  70  90
Datil...........................  83  56  78  55 /  90  80  80  80
Reserve.........................  90  56  87  54 /  90  80  90  90
Glenwood........................  93  66  90  65 /  90  70  90  90
Chama...........................  78  47  75  43 /  80  60  90  70
Los Alamos......................  82  59  75  56 /  80  60  80  80
Pecos...........................  81  56  73  52 /  80  60  80  90
Cerro/Questa....................  79  44  75  42 /  90  80  80  80
Red River.......................  69  44  66  41 /  90  80  80  80
Angel Fire......................  73  42  68  40 /  90  60  90  80
Taos............................  84  52  78  48 /  80  60  80  80
Mora............................  77  49  71  47 /  90  60  90  90
Espanola........................  91  58  84  56 /  70  50  70  80
Santa Fe........................  83  59  76  56 /  80  60  70  90
Santa Fe Airport................  87  59  80  55 /  70  60  70  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  83  62 /  70  90  60  90
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  65  85  62 /  60  80  60  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  65  87  62 /  60  80  50  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  65  85  63 /  60  90  50  80
Belen...........................  94  63  86  61 /  70  90  70  90
Bernalillo......................  93  64  86  61 /  60  90  60  80
Bosque Farms....................  93  62  86  60 /  60  80  70  80
Corrales........................  93  65  86  62 /  60  90  50  80
Los Lunas.......................  93  63  86  62 /  60  80  70  90
Placitas........................  89  62  82  59 /  60  90  60  80
Rio Rancho......................  92  65  86  62 /  60  90  50  80
Socorro.........................  95  66  88  64 /  70  90  70  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  57  76  55 /  70  80  70  80
Tijeras.........................  86  59  79  56 /  70  80  60  80
Edgewood........................  86  55  78  53 /  70  60  60  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  55  78  52 /  70  60  60  90
Clines Corners..................  81  54  73  51 /  70  70  70  90
Mountainair.....................  85  56  75  53 /  70  70  80  90
Gran Quivira....................  86  57  75  54 /  80  80  90  90
Carrizozo.......................  89  62  81  59 /  80  80  90  90
Ruidoso.........................  80  55  72  54 /  80  70  90  90
Capulin.........................  79  53  69  50 /  70  80  90  70
Raton...........................  84  54  74  51 /  70  80  90  70
Springer........................  86  56  77  54 /  70  90  90  80
Las Vegas.......................  80  54  70  51 /  80  60  90  90
Clayton.........................  87  60  77  57 /  40  70  80  60
Roy.............................  84  57  74  55 /  70  80  90  80
Conchas.........................  91  62  81  59 /  60  70  80  90
Santa Rosa......................  89  62  78  57 /  60  70  70  90
Tucumcari.......................  92  62  81  58 /  30  50  70  80
Clovis..........................  92  65  83  62 /  40  50  60  80
Portales........................  92  65  84  62 /  40  50  50  80
Fort Sumner.....................  93  65  83  61 /  40  70  50  80
Roswell.........................  97  70  88  67 /  30  70  70  90
Picacho.........................  89  62  80  60 /  70  80  90  90
Elk.............................  85  58  78  55 /  80  70  90  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ206>208-210>224-226>233-
237-239>241.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...39