Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, August 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Active weather is in store for much of the region this week with
numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Heavy rainfall is
expected with the stronger storms. Flash flooding may occur,
especially around burn scars, urban arroyos, and areas that pick
up multiple storms. Storm motions will be slow and erratic with
gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. High
temperatures will actually be near to slightly below normal for
late August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024

The recent active weather pattern will continue through at least
Wednesday but with even more intensity than recent days. The plume
of monsoon moisture will remain draped over NM while it is pinned
between an easterly wave drifting west across southeast TX and a
longwave H5 trough drifting east thru the northern Rockies. PWATs
will remain well above normal with values in the 1 to 1.3" range
along with very weak steering flow. Flash Flood Watches are very
likely to remain in effect each day thru Wednesday for burn scar
areas at a minimum. Expansion to other counties may occur once there
is a better idea on areas that end up with repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall. The heavier QPF will focus along and east of the central
mt chain thru Tuesday. 12Z max 6-hr ensemble QPF exceeds 1.5" so
torrential rainfall rates are very possible. The 13Z NBM shows
the higher probs for >0.25" and >0.50" rainfall in these same
areas so confidence is high for heavy rainfall. On Wednesday,
models are still hinting at a warm-core vort lobe over southeast
AZ drifting north/northeast thru western NM. This will allow the
coverage of storms with heavy rainfall to expand into western NM.
Max temps will be slightly below normal with this pattern across
western NM and slightly above normal across the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024

By Thursday, the remnant convective vortex mentioned above will be
adrift near the northern high terrain. The bulk of deterministic
models also capture this feature developing into another convective
cluster over northeast NM Thursday afternoon. This feature may then
drift south and eventually southwest into southern NM for Friday.
This evolution is in response to a stronger H5 ridge developing over
the central Rockies behind the departing longwave trough. Steering
flow will however remain weak over NM with a slight westward drift.
The latest QPF guidance is indicating potential for heavy rainfall
over southeast NM Friday which may elevate the risk for high-end
flash flooding on the Sacramento Complex burn scars.

Forecast confidence lowers by Saturday as there is uncertainty
with the location and strength of the H5 ridge developing to our
north and what happens to the remnant convective feature over
southeast NM. The extended GFS and ECMWF are showing this feature
drifting west into southern NM Saturday then north back into
central and western NM by Sunday. The entire pattern will depend
on many factors thru this week but the bottom line is a very
active thunderstorm pattern with heavy rain may continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Another active day will impact the region with numerous SHRA/TS
and localized heavy rainfall. Storms are already building over the
high terrain and will move into nearby highlands and valleys thru
3pm. Direct hits will be capable of brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rain
with gusty outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. The
focus will shift into eastern NM thru the evening with SHRA/TS
developing eastward along a large convective outflow boundary.
Storm motion will be slow toward the north/northeast. Local MVFR
cigs may develop along the east slopes of the central mt chain
before sunrise. Tuesday will be very active again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast over the next
7 days. A very moist airmass with slow steering flow will lead to
numerous showers and storms each day with locally heavy rainfall.
There is an elevated risk for flash flooding, especially around burn
scars. Temperatures will also be near to slightly below normal for
late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  86  60  84 /   0   5   5  10
Dulce...........................  45  83  47  82 /   5  20  10  20
Cuba............................  53  81  53  79 /  10  30  30  40
Gallup..........................  52  83  54  81 /   5  30  10  40
El Morro........................  53  78  53  76 /  20  50  30  60
Grants..........................  53  82  54  80 /  30  50  30  60
Quemado.........................  53  79  54  77 /  40  70  40  70
Magdalena.......................  58  79  58  78 /  60  70  30  70
Datil...........................  53  76  53  75 /  50  80  40  80
Reserve.........................  53  84  54  81 /  40  80  50  80
Glenwood........................  63  88  63  85 /  40  80  50  80
Chama...........................  46  76  46  75 /  10  30  10  30
Los Alamos......................  58  78  57  78 /  30  50  30  40
Pecos...........................  55  77  54  78 /  50  70  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  49  77  50  77 /  20  40  20  30
Red River.......................  45  67  45  68 /  20  60  20  30
Angel Fire......................  40  70  40  72 /  30  60  20  40
Taos............................  50  81  50  80 /  20  40  20  30
Mora............................  50  75  48  77 /  60  70  20  40
Espanola........................  58  86  58  86 /  30  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  58  79  57  79 /  40  60  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  58  83  57  83 /  40  50  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  85  63  85 /  50  50  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  87  63  87 /  50  50  50  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  89  63  88 /  50  40  50  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  88  63  87 /  40  40  50  30
Belen...........................  61  88  61  88 /  50  50  50  30
Bernalillo......................  62  90  61  89 /  40  40  50  30
Bosque Farms....................  60  88  60  87 /  50  40  50  30
Corrales........................  62  90  62  88 /  40  40  50  30
Los Lunas.......................  61  88  62  87 /  50  40  50  30
Placitas........................  61  85  61  86 /  40  50  50  30
Rio Rancho......................  63  88  63  88 /  40  40  50  30
Socorro.........................  64  90  64  89 /  60  60  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  77  55  78 /  50  60  50  40
Tijeras.........................  58  81  57  82 /  60  60  50  40
Edgewood........................  54  81  53  81 /  60  70  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  83  51  82 /  60  70  50  40
Clines Corners..................  53  77  52  78 /  70  80  50  40
Mountainair.....................  54  80  54  80 /  70  80  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  55  80  55  80 /  60  80  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  61  83  61  84 /  50  70  30  60
Ruidoso.........................  55  75  55  76 /  60  80  20  60
Capulin.........................  55  77  53  81 /  60  60  10  20
Raton...........................  54  82  53  85 /  50  60  10  20
Springer........................  55  82  54  86 /  60  60  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  78  52  80 /  70  70  30  40
Clayton.........................  63  85  62  87 /  50  40  10   5
Roy.............................  58  81  58  83 /  70  50  30  10
Conchas.........................  63  88  62  90 /  70  50  40  10
Santa Rosa......................  61  84  60  85 /  70  60  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  62  88  62  90 /  60  30  30   5
Clovis..........................  65  91  65  92 /  50  30  20  10
Portales........................  65  92  65  92 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  64  89  63  90 /  70  40  40  10
Roswell.........................  70  94  69  94 /  50  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  62  86  60  87 /  50  50  20  40
Elk.............................  57  83  56  85 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-226.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42