An isolated severe thunderstorm produced localized wind damage in the Fredericksburg area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm produced localized wind damage in the Fredericksburg area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 26, 9:04 AM EST, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1004 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough will cross the area through tonight. A cold front will approach Wednesday into Thursday, then meander near the region into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The corridor of forcing aimed at the area is evident on regional satellite and radar. At 9:45 AM, several clusters of showers and occasional lightning strikes extend from near Johnstown, PA northwestward across Lake Erie. Should they hold together, the first cluster would reach Allegany County between 10:30 and 11 AM and approach portions of the DC metro area between 1 and 2 PM. The main thing to watch is whether the lead cluster (or its outflow) becomes the strong to severe threat as it eventually reaches increased diurnal instability, and whether it is or not, if it acts as a stabilizing influence for any ensuing showers/storms that trail (or perhaps cause them to build toward higher instability). The 12Z IAD sounding is consistent with many forecast soundings showing a mid level stable layer could thwart updraft strength. Don't think there are needs for large changes to the forecast database other than to adjust PoP timing/coverage as the activity approaches from the northwest. Previous discussion remains valid: An upper-level low was moving into New England early this morning, with northwest flow aloft prevailing over the Mid- Atlantic. Surface features were rather nebulous and weak, other than broad high pressure drifting offshore. A corridor of weak convergence was evident early this morning from western Maryland southeastward to the Fredericksburg VA area. This zone will likely strengthen today as waves pivot around the upper-level low to the north. This zone is also where some slightly higher low-level moisture and instability is expected, and will also be on the periphery of enhanced mid- level flow attendant to the low to the north. It is in this corridor where scattered convection with a few strong to severe thunderstorms is most probable this afternoon and early evening. Limiting factors to a more substantial severe weather risk include poor mid-level lapse rates, modest forcing, and a lack of stronger low-level flow. Also, low-level flow will tend to be northwesterly for much of the area west of I-95 W/NW of a developing surface trough; this adds a bit of a potential downsloping (drying) component which may tend to limit instability and convergence. Still, any convection that is able to overcome these limiting factors could organize into bands or borderline supercell structures given the deep-layer shear. The main risk with any strong to severe thunderstorms is localized damaging wind gusts. The shear and somewhat cooler than normal mid/upper-level temps could result in a conditional low-end severe hail risk should any supercells develop. Overall, temperatures are expected to reach well into the 80s to lower 90s today similar to/perhaps a touch warmer than Sunday. Lows tonight look to drop into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Fog may develop especially west of I-95/in areas that see rain today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The surface trough from Monday will likely stall near or over the area Tuesday, perhaps re-orienting itself closer to the lee of the higher terrain west of I-81. Any convergence along this lingering boundary and/or slightly enhanced ascent with weak waves passing by in NW flow aloft could result in a pop up shower or thunderstorm Tuesday PM near or west of I-81. Increasing heat and humidity support this risk, but forcing is rather nebulous and weak which should greatly limit coverage. The peak of a heat dome will bump into the back of the departing upper trough/low on Wednesday. Model guidance diverges in the interaction between these two features, but given some lingering enhancement to the upper flow as well as strong instability with a late season heat episode would lend to the potential for a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms. Speaking of heat and humidity, both look to peak over the local area Wednesday afternoon. Low-level thicknesses and 925-850 hPa temps support highs in the upper 90s to around 100. Moisture pooled near the aforementioned surface trough and continuing to gently advect in from upstream around the approaching ridge should result in dew points in the upper 60s to perhaps near 70 during peak heating. The result will be heat indices exceeding 100-105 for much of the lower elevations. Overnights will be warm and muggy through mid week as well. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A front near and just to our south on Thursday could bank up against the leeside of the Appalachians Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Showers could be moderate to heavy at times during this period with a few embedded thunderstorms as shortwave energy arrives from the west and along this surface front. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in the lower 90s which is about 5 to 7 degrees above average. During the day Friday, some stability will evolve over much of the region with the front still to our south and southwest. Therefore, any showers will probably be scattered and focused more over higher terrain and the northern zones. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler overall on Friday. The warmth comes back into play on Saturday with the front to our south retreating northward rapidly as a warm front. Temperatures will be closer to average in the middle 80s. A cold front connected to an area of low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will most likely drag southeastward into and across our region Saturday shortly after the warm front gets to our north. Showers and a chance for thunderstorms become more pronounced from northwest to southeast during this period. The cold front should push to our southeast on Sunday. This ushers in drier and more stable air from the northwest. Although there could be a couple of lingering showers or a rumble of thunder in our southeastern zones on Sunday, much of the rest of the region will dry out from northwest to southeast. Highs will be in the middle 80s. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR is then expected to prevail through this evening, but scattered TS is forecast - peaking 17Z-22Z for the metros (slightly earlier at MRB, slightly later at CHO with less certainty). Based on upstream radar observations of showers over Pennsylvania, it suggests the threat may be earlier than previous forecast and will be adjusting TAFs accordingly.There may be slightly lower potential for NE and SW terminals given latest CAM output, but have opted to hold firm with VCTS where it was previously mentioned and not add it where it wasn't already there since certainty was too low to make any changes. However, if the current corridor remains aligned southeastward, BWI/MTN could largely miss out on the main thunderstorm activity. Flow looks to be light out of the W/NW today behind a weak developing surface trough; the trough will be very near MTN and bay breeze influence is possible at times there this afternoon. Fog may develop tonight especially for terminals west of I-95 and/or those that experience more substantial rainfall. MET/MAV guidance indicates potential for patchy dense fog, but this is of low confidence and will likely be contingent on exactly where any heavier rain falls. Mainly VFR is expected Tuesday into Wednesday as light winds oscillate between S and W. Tuesday looks mainly dry, but TS potential may increase by later Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions more probable at MRB and CHO on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms around. VFR conditions elsewhere. Winds northwest becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots Thursday and Thursday night. Winds mainly southeast 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. && .MARINE... Generally light flow is expected through mid week. Direction may vary a bit between S and W/NW as a surface trough dangles near the waters. The southern waters (i.e. Chesapeake Bay off southern Maryland) would stand the best chance of brief enhanced southerly channeling, but should be mainly sub SCA most of the time. A few thunderstorms capable of gusty winds are possible this afternoon into this evening. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday, but thunderstorm potential may increase again Wednesday afternoon and night. No marine hazards expected Thursday through Friday night. Winds northwest becoming southeast 10 knots Thursday through early Friday, then southeast 10 knots later Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light and variable flow is expected the next few days, with occasional slight southerly enhancements possible. This will maintain elevated tidal anomalies resulting in Action stages at some vulnerable tidal sites. Flooding still seems unlikely given the light nature of the flow, however. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF MARINE...KLW/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1156 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-271600- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1156 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are possible between about 1 PM and 9 PM. A few of these storms may be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The combination of heat and humidity will likely result in heat index values around 105 Wednesday afternoon. This increases the risk of heat-related illnesses. There is potential for clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, and Wednesday. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-271600- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 1156 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are possible between about 1 PM and 9 PM. A few of these storms may be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts, especially north of Interstate 64. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The combination of heat and humidity will likely result in heat index values of around 100 to 105 Wednesday afternoon. This increases the risk of heat-related illnesses. There is potential for clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, and Wednesday. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-271600- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1156 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are possible between about 1 PM and 9 PM. A few of these storms may be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts, especially north of Highway 50. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The combination of heat and humidity will likely result in heat index values around 100 Wednesday afternoon over the lower elevations. This increases the risk of heat-related illnesses. There is potential for clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
156 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0148 PM Marine Tstm Wind Reagan National Arpt 38.85N 77.03W
08/26/2024 M53 mph Arlington VA ASOS
46 kt gust at KDCA
&&
Event Number LWX2403892
ADSThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:35 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees blew down in the 11000 block of Portugal Drive, including one onto a house.
Trees blew down onto power lines near the intersection of VA-635 Decatur Road and Willies Lane.
Trees blew down near the intersection of VA-3 Kings Highway and Bloomsbury Road/Lagrange Lane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1207686, 1207687, 1207688.