Flash Flood in New Mexico, August 12, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Monsoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
across the Gila Forest to the northern mountains today and
especially Tuesday. A few storms across northeast New Mexico
today could become strong to severe. The highest chances for heavy
rainfall on wildfire burn areas will be on Tuesday. Thunderstorm
activity will decrease in coverage Wednesday into Thursday as
drier air moves into the region. The monsoon high is expected to
build back over New Mexico Friday and into the weekend. Hot
conditions are expected to develop across much of central and
eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A noticeable increase in storm coverage is likely today, especially
over central and western NM. One lobe of the monsoon high has moved
slightly farther east into southeast NM and TX while a remnant upper
level wave is drifting north over southwest AZ. Deep-layer southerly
flow across eastern AZ will spread more into western NM today with
PWATs increasing to near 1.2" along the state line. Storm
initiation will take place across most of the central and western
high terrain by 12pm then move northward around 10 mph. More
storms will develop on convective outflows in valleys and nearby
highlands thru the day with locally heavy rainfall. The greatest
threat for flash flooding will be over western NM where training
cells are likely in south to north flow. Surprisingly, WPC QPF is
rather anemic today and the 00Z HREF/NBM 99th percentiles only
supports values in the 0.25 to 0.75" range. Nonetheless, flooding
is possible from persistent stronger cells. Burn scar areas will
also be susceptible to flooding given the lower rainfall needed.
However, confidence is just not high enough to support a Flash
Flood Watch given the very localized higher QPF and also potential
for steering flow to carry storms away from the Ruidoso area. A
couple strong to severe storms are also possible today over
northeast NM where a weak boundary is draped over the area under
relatively stronger west-northwest flow aloft. Finally, it will be
very hot again today across southeast NM where locations around
Roswell reach close to 105F.

Scattered showers and isolated storms are likely to continue across
much of central and western NM thru tonight. The upper level wave
near Phoenix will begin lifting northeast ahead of a broader trough
approaching the west coast Tuesday. A well-defined moist instability
axis will be stretched from south to north over central and western
NM as the nose of a 70-80kt upper level jet moves into northwest AZ!
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the
region with a higher risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding just
about anywhere. The 00Z HREF/NBM max QPF values indicate higher QPF
potential in several areas so a Flash Flood Watch is very likely for
several counties. In addition, Tuesday will be a second day with
potential training cells in south to north flow. Max temps will
trend cooler Tuesday but still be plenty warm to support storm
initiation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

After a robust surge in monsoonal thunderstorm activity on
Tuesday, conditions begin to change for the middle of the week
Wednesday into Thursday. On Wednesday a shortwave trough moves
across the Inter-mountain West and then into the northern plains.
This allows for westerlies to develop across northern portions of
New Mexico as the monsoon high pressure aloft weakens or flattens.

The westerlies also support a surge in dry air across western and
central New Mexico for Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a
significant drop off in thunderstorm chances from Wednesday into
Thursday. PWAT values drop below 0.8 inches for a good portion of
region which again will limit thunderstorm activity especially on
Thursday. The drier air will also heat up more so look for the
heat risk to increase across the state.

All that said...Wednesday will be a sneaky day for thunderstorm
activity and heavy rainfall for HPCC and Sacramento Mtn burn areas
as not all the moisture will be decreasing by then. It probably
will not be until Thursday that we can confidently go with low
enough thunderstorm chances and limited impacts. Wednesday could
still be a high chance of storms for the Sacramento Mtns and
impacts from the South Fork burn area causing flooding from the
rapid runoff. It will be a transition day for moisture so by
Thursday even an isolated storm will be hard to develop.

By Friday both GFS and EC ensembles show the monsoon ridge
building right back over New Mexico with the drier air still
entrenched over New Mexico. Any kind of monsoon moisture plume
will be over AZ for the weekend. If the ridge slides more to the
east then perhaps parts of W NM get back into higher moisture for
thunderstorm activity. Ensembles support this to some degree but
the consensus is for the ridge to build over NM. Heat risk will
become the main hazard with RGV/ABQ metro getting back into the
upper 90s and low 100s in the eastern plains.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to erupt over the higher
terrain through 20Z before moving northeastward around 5-15kt over
the adjacent lower terrain. Nearly all TAF sites may be impacted
by storms this afternoon and evening, sans KROW. Gusty winds,
small hail and heavy rainfall will be possible with all storms,
though across the northeast a severe storm or two will be possible
between 21Z and 03Z. Brief MVFR vsbys will be possible in the
strongest storms today. Showers and isolated storms will linger
well into the evening and overnight hours once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for at least the next
7 days. A significant increase in storm coverage with locally heavy
rainfall is expected today and Tuesday. Storm motion will be toward
the north and east around 5 to 15 mph. Strong high pressure will
begin building into the region from the west Wednesday then persist
through the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will trend
hotter with decreasing coverage of storms. Winds will be primarily
light with poor to fair ventilation areawide in this pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  64  86  61 /  10  40  40  40
Dulce...........................  83  51  84  48 /  30  50  60  40
Cuba............................  85  57  84  55 /  40  50  70  40
Gallup..........................  88  55  83  55 /  40  50  60  20
El Morro........................  84  55  80  54 /  60  60  80  40
Grants..........................  87  58  83  56 /  60  60  80  30
Quemado.........................  85  56  81  55 /  70  60  90  40
Magdalena.......................  87  62  86  61 /  40  50  70  40
Datil...........................  83  56  81  54 /  60  50  90  30
Reserve.........................  89  56  87  55 /  60  50  80  30
Glenwood........................  94  66  92  65 /  50  40  80  20
Chama...........................  76  50  78  48 /  40  50  80  40
Los Alamos......................  83  61  83  59 /  50  40  70  40
Pecos...........................  86  59  84  57 /  50  40  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  77  52  81  51 /  50  40  60  30
Red River.......................  67  48  72  46 /  60  40  70  30
Angel Fire......................  75  45  75  44 /  60  30  60  20
Taos............................  83  54  84  52 /  30  30  40  20
Mora............................  81  52  81  51 /  60  30  60  20
Espanola........................  90  61  91  59 /  30  40  50  30
Santa Fe........................  85  62  86  59 /  40  50  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  89  61  89  59 /  30  40  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  68  92  66 /  30  50  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  67  94  65 /  20  50  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  66  96  64 /  20  40  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  68  94  66 /  20  40  40  30
Belen...........................  94  65  95  63 /  20  40  30  30
Bernalillo......................  95  66  95  64 /  20  40  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  95  64  95  62 /  20  40  30  30
Corrales........................  95  67  96  65 /  20  50  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  96  66  95  64 /  20  40  30  30
Placitas........................  92  65  91  63 /  30  40  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  92  68  94  65 /  20  40  40  30
Socorro.........................  98  68  97  66 /  20  50  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  59  86  58 /  30  40  50  30
Tijeras.........................  91  62  88  60 /  30  50  50  40
Edgewood........................  88  57  88  56 /  60  40  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  55  89  53 /  40  30  40  20
Clines Corners..................  85  57  84  55 /  50  40  40  20
Mountainair.....................  89  58  88  57 /  40  40  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  90  58  88  58 /  50  40  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  94  65  91  64 /  30  20  40  30
Ruidoso.........................  86  59  84  59 /  30  20  60  30
Capulin.........................  83  56  84  57 /  60  40  30   5
Raton...........................  88  55  89  55 /  60  30  30   5
Springer........................  90  56  90  56 /  60  30  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  86  55  85  54 /  60  30  40  20
Clayton.........................  90  64  91  65 /  40  40   5   0
Roy.............................  89  60  89  61 /  60  40  10  10
Conchas.........................  97  66  96  67 /  30  40   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  92  64  91  64 /  30  30  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  96  66  96  69 /  10  20   0  10
Clovis.......................... 101  68  98  69 /   5  10   0  10
Portales........................ 100  68  98  70 /   5   5   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  97  68  97  68 /   5  20   5  20
Roswell......................... 104  73 101  73 /   0   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  96  63  94  64 /  10   5  30  20
Elk.............................  91  60  92  60 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...34