Heavy Snow in Nevada, February 18 to 19, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1221 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level disturbance will light rain and snow
showers across much of northern Nevada later this evening through
tonight. Shower activity will diminish through the morning hours
Sunday. Minimal impacts from snow will be confined higher
elevations and passes of northern Nevada. Another round of rain
and snow showers are expected Monday through midweek as a wet
storm system impacts the western United States. Drier conditions
and warming settle into the area for the latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. All model solutions
are showing the passage of an upper level ridge axis over northern
and central Nevada today. Satellite loop has a mass of clouds out
in central California and the eastern Pacific. These will continue
eastward during the evening and overnight. As the cloud begin to
lower, a flurry, sprinkle, or light shower cannot be ruled out
for this late afternoon into the overnight. Winds will be light
and overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

For Sunday and Sunday night, a wave moving through the flow will
skirt across the area. This will bring increasing chances for rain
and snow showers during the early morning hours Sunday. Snow
levels are forecast to be around 5500 to 6500 feet. A mix of rain
and snow showers are possible in the higher valley locations with
about one to two inches in northern Elko county with three to six
inches in the Ruby Mountains. Winds will be out of the south and
southwest during the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph. Highs will be
in the 40s and 50s. The system will quickly move out of the area
Sunday afternoon and evening with partial clearing commencing.
Another shortwave ridge will move over the area Sunday night but
then will also exiting rapidly. Overnight lows will be in the 20s
and upper 30s and light winds.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Next Saturday.

The beginning of next week looks active, as an offshore low, with
an atmospheric river component to it looks to remain idle off the
coast of California through Wednesday. A surge of moisture under
southwesterly flow will impact the Sierra-Nevada's, while also
causing some spill over east of the Sierras, into portions of
Nevada. Due to cloudy skies, and strong southerly winds, High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
This will keep snow levels elevated, largely between 6500 and 7000
feet through the day. As a result much of the area will see
rainfall between 0.10" and 0.25" with locally higher amounts in
the high terrain of Central Nevada. As far as snowfall and
impacts, expect minimal to no impacts to valley locations with a
tenth or two of snowfall. High terrain of NW Nye, as well as the
Ruby Mountains, can see 6-12 inches of snow, but most or all will
occur at elevations over 7000 feet. Winds will also be strong
throughout the day, with strong southerly winds of 25-30 mph with
gusts as high as 35-45 mph, especially across Central Nevada. Lows
Monday evening will remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see less in the form of moisture, with
most valleys seeing a couple hundredths to a tenth of an inch.
Snow levels will be slightly lower on Tuesday with them ranging
from 5800 to 6500 feet. No major snow accumulations expected, with
most valleys seeing little to no accumulation, while other
valleys, across eastern Nevada may see a few tenths of an inch.
Highs will still be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with southerly
flow, although lighter winds are expected. Lows Tuesday generally
being in the upper 20s to lower 30s. As for Wednesday, snow levels
continue to lower, ranging from 5200 to 5800 feet, and the
offshore system begins to become disorganized and progress
eastward, onshore. Eastern Nevada including White Pine County may
see more rainfall of 0.10" to 0.25" while more valley locations
may see snowfall. Areas east of the Ruby Mountains and south
including White Pine, and Southern Lander Counties may see up to 1
inch of snowfall, with surrounding mountains seeing more. Showers
look to taper off Wednesday ahead of an incoming ridge. Lows
Wednesday night will generally range in the 20s.

A ridge of high pressure looks to take over the area mid to late
week and continue through the weekend. This would lead to quieter
weather and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Increasing cloud cover is expected with lowering
ceiling heading into the afternoon and evening. -SHRA is expected
to start at most terminals (KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, KTPH) anytime after
00Z generally tapering off by 12Z Sunday morning. VFR conditions
are expected, but brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible
with a combination of lower ceilings and precipitation. After 12Z
expect VFR condtions to prevail.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

86/91/91