Heavy Snow in Nevada, February 14 to 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather today and tomorrow with accumulating precipitation
and gusty winds. General active pattern persists into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.

Shortwave still on track to move into the forecast area from the
west today, bringing a Pacific system into the western U.S.
Weather impacts begin mid day today as light valley rain and
rain/snow mix along with mountain snow will be present across most
of northern Nevada as precipitation associated with a broad warm
front moves into the region. Snow levels around 5500-6000 feet
during the day. Activity dissipates thru the evening although on
and off precip lingers. Renewed push of valley rain and rain/snow
mix and mountain snow before midnight as the cold front begins
moving thru from the northwest. Snow levels lower Wednesday night
in conjunction with the frontal passage. Valley precip type mostly
switched over to snow by sunrise Thursday. Slush ups on roadways
possible during the morning commute, especially over pass routes.
Main push of snow mostly exited to the east late Thursday morning.
Snow showers linger across northern Nevada thru Thursday
afternoon with the lower valleys more likely to see a rain/snow
mix under any shower activity. Snow levels around 5500-6000 feet
by Thursday afternoon. Light snow showers likely linger over the
high terrain of Elko and eastern Humboldt Counties Thursday night
as westerly to northwesterly flow resides over the area.

New snowfall accumulations Wednesday thru Thursday night will be
light for the valleys, generally around 1 inch or less. Greater
amounts focused across northern Elko County with 1 to 3 inches
expected. The mountains will see 3 to 8+ inches, elevation
dependent. Tightening pressure gradients under dynamic weather
will produce gusty southwest surface winds Wednesday and into
Thursday with winds shifting more westerly Thursday. The highest
gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be situated over the ridge lines and
higher terrain with gusts 25 to 30 mph for the valleys. Winds
become lighter Thursday night. Potential for blowing and drifting
snow over pass routes and the high terrain in general. Daytime
high temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday with
overnight lows in the 20s. Thursday sees daytime high temperatures
again in the mid 30s to mid 40s with slightly cooler overnight
lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday

Friday, model solutions continue to show a few isolated showers
will be lingering across the higher terrain, but accumulations are
not expected. Upper level ridging will lead to a return of quiet
weather Friday afternoon, lasting through Saturday. By Sunday both
the GFS and the EC continue to show a lead shortwave being
ejected into the SW upper flow by a parent trough approaching the
west coast. The shortwave Sunday will move NW across northern
California early Sunday morning and into the Idaho/Montana region
by Sunday evening. Given the good agreement by the models, and
with the fast quick-hitting nature of the shortwave, a 60% to 70%
chance of scattered valley rain & mountain snow showers across
northern NV, and a lower 30% to 50% chance for central NV has been
introduced. The main long wave trough, potential closed low and
associated atmospheric river will approach the coast Sunday night
direct a series of shortwaves into the region with the first of
these shortwave bringing rain and snow chances back to Nevada
Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon with a second moving through
Wednesday morning. Models as of yet to not have a good handle on
the key variables like temperatures and snow levels yet, but it is
expected that Pacific nature of the systems will favor higher
snow levels around 6000 feet. So will keep the valley rain and
mountain snow pattern for now.
Temperatures and Winds: Highs will start in the upper 30s to upper
40s and with SW flow aloft, highs will warm into the low 40s to
low 50s through Wednesday. Lows Friday morning will be in the low
20s to low 30s, lows will warm slightly into the mid 20s to mid
30s through Wednesday morning. Winds will be light to fresh
through next weekend out of the west to southwest at speeds of 5
to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Winds across the
northern NV border area, and across central NV may be bit stronger
on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday as upper systems transverse the
region, but at speeds up to 15 to 25 MPH with a few gusts up to 35
MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions at all terminals through the
mid-morning hours. An incoming storm system will bring -SHSNRA to
KWMC KBAM and KEKO late this morning through this evening.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

92/98/96

Special Weather Statement...RESENT
National Weather Service Elko NV
756 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

NVZ031-034-036-038-039-141800-
Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-
Southwest Elko County-South Central Elko County-
Including the cities of Midas, Gibbs Ranch, Charleston, Jarbidge,
Mountain City, Owyhee, Tuscarora, Argenta, Battle Mountain,
Crescent Valley, Beowawe, Dunphy, Emigrant Pass, Palisade, Elko,
Ryndon, Jiggs, Lamoille, Lee, South Fork, Spring Creek,
Ruby Lake, and Oasis
756 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

...High Elevation Snow across Northern Nevada Today through
Thursday...

A Pacific storm system is expected to move into the forecast area
beginning midday today, spreading rain/snow mix and snow across
northern and central Nevada. Light valley rain and mountain snow
will be present across most of northern Nevada with snow levels
around 5500-6000 feet. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected
across Northern Elko County and 3-6 inches in the Ruby Mountains
and East Humboldt Range this evening through Thursday morning.
The valley floors for the rest of northern and central Nevada will
see accumulations of less than an inch. West to southwest winds
of 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 35-40 mph will be situated
over the ridge lines and higher terrain, leading to blowing and
drifting snow. Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the
day Thursday as the storm system exits the region.

Visit www.weather.gov/elko for the latest weather information.