A broad area of weak thunderstorms developed beneath a potent lobe of upper vorticity during the afternoon and early evening hours of May 12th. This activity largely remained benign and non-severe, thanks to both weak deep layer shear and instability within the upper trough axis.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
A broad area of weak thunderstorms developed beneath a potent lobe of upper vorticity during the afternoon and early evening hours of May 12th. This activity largely remained benign and non-severe, thanks to both weak deep layer shear and instability within the upper trough axis. However, funnel clouds and at least one landspout occurred on the leading edge of slightly stronger thunderstorms over central Nebraska, aided in large part by high ambient vorticity and moderate 0-3km CAPE. No damage was reported and the location of the only known landspout was estimated based on spotter reports, pictures, and video.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 3:28 PM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 428 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this afternoon, and continue into the evening and overnight. Rain chances will slowly subside from NW to SE on Monday. - General pattern for the upcoming week will be off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms with several passing disturbances in the zonal to NW flow - most notably Tue night into Wed and Fri/Fri night into Sat. - Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant each day in the 70s and 80s - very low risk for anything extreme. - Risk for severe weather appears to be seasonably low for the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas of showers were fairly and hit and miss much of the morning hrs, but have since increased in coverage and intensity (quite a bit more lightning) this afternoon. This was aided by some periods of filtered sunshine that allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s in spots, which is essentially convective temperatures for today. Cold mid level temps associated with cut off low pressure area in NW KS have aided in steepening lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of CAPE to develop, but effective shear is very weak. Thus, not expecting much more than localized heavy downpours, pea size hail, and gusty winds in the strongest of cores. Will likely see a decr in coverage and intensity with loss of daytime heating after sunset, though at least widely scattered activity will continue into the overnight. Models have trended a bit slower with the exit of the system on Monday, so areas particularly E/SE/S of the Tri-Cities could hang onto showers, perhaps a few weak storms, through the AM hrs and even into early aftn. Elsewhere, rain-free areas will warm into at least the low to mid 70s amidst brzy N-NE winds during the aftn. The rest of the forecast is really just more of the same - chances for showers and thunderstorms, which look to be mostly non-severe, every couple of days due to series of generally weak mid to upper level disturbances in active zonal to NW flow. This will prevent temperatures from straying too far above or below normal. In fact latest ensemble guidance shows pretty tight clustering in the low 70s to low 80s pretty much each day through Friday. Spread increases into next weekend due to differences/uncertainty in timing and amplitude of systems by then. Despite the active pattern, in general, severe chances appear fairly minimal as the frequency of systems/front prevents the real juicy/unstable air from making it into the area before the next front pushes it back south. Models indicate at least a chance for higher instability at some point next weekend, but again, confidence on details is low at this time. In the meantime, Tuesday and Thursday are best chances to remain dry this week, and Tuesday will even have only light and variable winds. Monday AM, Wednesday, and at some point Fri into Sat are the periods to watch for moisture, but even these are not looking to be overly widespread or persistent periods of showers and thunderstorms. So all in all, pretty nice by mid- May standards! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR with BKN mid to high clds will give way to incr potential for scat thunderstorms this aftn and early evening. Coverage and placement is still uncertain, so only have VCTS at this time. Any tstms will transition to mainly rain showers late this evening and into the overnight, but again, coverage/duration at the terminals is low confidence. In general, rain chcs should decr from W to E in roughly the 09-12Z time frame. CIGs and VSBYs are also low confidence and will be somewhat dependent on how widespread the rain shwrs are. Recent HRRR runs have really backed off on the MVFR-IFR CIGs tonight, whereas most other guidance has low clds, though to varying degrees. With some E-NE upslope component to low level flow and fairly high BL RH the general pattern would seem to support the idea of MVFR to IFR CIGs (and perhaps sub-VFR VSBYs) thru mid-AM Mon. Clds should gradually decrease late Mon AM into the aftn. Winds will be quite variable in direction through this evening, then bec mainly E to NNE tonight into Mon AM...though speeds will be light throughout at generally 5-10kt. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Thies
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 315 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 130815- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 315 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible during the daytime hours today, possibly increasing in coverage this evening. Severe weather is not anticipated. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Off and on chances for thunderstorms are anticipated for much of the upcoming week, with highest of these chances being early in the day on Monday and again Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected at this time, though a few strong storms can't be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Rossi
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0911 PM Tornado 1 NNW Holdrege 40.46N 99.38W
05/03/2024 Phelps NE NWS Storm Survey
This is an update to the initial Holdrege
Tornado survey and results in the original
track being split into two separate and
distinct damage paths, which are now
referred to as Holdrege North Tornado and
Holdrege East Tornado. There are no changes
to the EF-Scale rating with this update, as
it remains an EF-1. The Holdrege North
tornado touched down just north of the golf
course, then moved east and northeast for
just under two miles before lifting.
&&
ThiesPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0908 PM Tornado 1 SE Holdrege 40.43N 99.36W
05/03/2024 Phelps NE NWS Storm Survey
This is an update to the initial Holdrege
Tornado survey and results in the original
track being split into two separate and
distinct damage paths, which are now
referred to as Holdrege North Tornado and
Holdrege East Tornado. There are no changes
to the EF-Scale rating with this update, as
it remains an EF-1. The Holdrege East
tornado touched down near the fairgrounds
then moved north into the SE side of town.
It appears the tornado briefly lifted as it
moved north of 6th Ave, sparing
neighborhoods in northeast Holdrege more
significant damage, before touching back
down in a field just northwest of the
intersection of 18th Ave and Lincoln St. The
tornado reached peak intensity and width
near Lincoln St and 25th Ave just NE of
Holdrege where significant damage to
outbuildings, some newer and well-built, was
noted. Damage also occurred to roofs of a
few homes. The tornado would go on to
overturn numerous pivots and snap a few more
power poles as it curved northeast. Damage
ceased near the intersection of Q Rd and 736
Rd, which coincides with substantial
weakening of the circulation on radar.
&&
ThiesThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:41 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A fairly visible landspout touched down four miles of St. Paul. No damage occurred with this tornado, timing and location was approximated from reports and video.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Nebraska, 2024Warnings in Nebraska, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1175628.