A persistent tail of thunderstorms continued along the southern edge of a large convective system, resulting in prolonged rainfall over a couple hours across northeast Nebraska. 5 miles northwest of Ponca) in the slightly hilly terrain around Ponca.
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The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A persistent tail of thunderstorms continued along the southern edge of a large convective system, resulting in prolonged rainfall over a couple hours across northeast Nebraska. Rainfall amounts reached locally 3 to 4 inches (3.10 inches measured 2.5 miles northwest of Ponca) in the slightly hilly terrain around Ponca.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 17, 1:06 AM CST, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain continues to move through the Tri-State area this morning, with fairly widespread 1-3" totals expected and locally higher amounts. - Severe weather risk has diminished somewhat, with a more narrowed focus for large hail and some gusty winds along the Missouri River and then portions of northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota. - Continued uncertainty for severe weather risks for Monday, given cloud cover, lingering showers, and warming low-lvl temperatures. Lingering elevated hail risks may continue through the morning hours, with some renewed potential later this afternoon. - A progressive front moves through on Tuesday, bringing yet another risk for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. - An unsettled week is ahead, with numerous thunderstorm risks into next weekend. The risk for locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day, with slightly more muted severe weather risks with lower shear. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 TONIGHT: Convection continues to track east across the Tri-State area. Generally the severe weather risks have lessoned as the strong mass convergence really gave no opportunity for storms to stay very discrete. Most guidance has also been focused far too north through the night, with the true effective low-lvl front focused south of I-90. Perhaps some residual severe weather risks will be possible along the Missouri River and then into portions of NW Iowa into Southern Minnesota, where instability is a bit higher, DCAPE remains nearly 1000 J/KG, and effective shear is AOA 40 KTs. However the greatest risk tonight will remain in the form of heavy rainfall. At this point, see no reason why convection will jog northward as some of the high resolution guidance suggests. Also, stronger shortwave energy continues to approach north central Nebraska, which will travel along the elevated boundary and continue the focus for heavy rain along and just north of the Missouri River and then further east into northern Iowa through 12Z. TODAY: We'll need to wait for the Nebraska shortwave to slide east before some weakening of deeper lift takes place. This may not happen until nearly mid-morning. However, with broad southwest flow and continued overrunning of the elevated boundary, persistent shower and thunderstorm development may continue north of the surface front through at least early to mid afternoon. Speaking of that surface front, it's current location south of the CWA may remain stationary until afternoon when some gradual retreat will begin in the afternoon. Convection risks later this afternoon and evening remain extremely conditional, partially due to continued capping over the CWA through the day, and the absence of deep synoptic lift. For now, will keep PoPs lower into the late afternoon hours, and temperatures cooler through the day due to cloud cover. TONIGHT: With the increase of the LLJ early in the evening, this could pose a risk for convection to develop along and north of the retreating warm front over northeastern SD. An additional focus point would be along a north to south oriented cold front in central South Dakota. However, unless a subtle wave sneaks through the Plains (ala the ECMWF) the best synoptic forcing is likely to take shape northwest of the CWA, so will only maintain a low chance PoP. The return of southerly surface flow behind the retreating warm front is likely to keep overnight low temperatures very warm and humid through the region. TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Uncertainty on where the surface cold front ends up Tuesday afternoon, but most guidance keeps this in our area (along/east of I-29) with the main surface low off to the north. Plenty of convergence along the front with lift by the evening hours as mid level wave and upper jet begin to track over the eastern half of the forecast area. Lots of warm and moist air ahead of the surface front; however, soundings show a fairly capped environment so afternoon/evening convection may be more elevated and tied to either the 850 mb or 700 mb front. Regardless, storms during Tuesday afternoon through night could be strong to severe. Main threats would be large hail and heavy rainfall. Can't rule out strong wind gusts, but this looks to be a secondary threat especially if storms are elevated. Prevailing storm motion is essentially parallel to the front so training storms could be a concern if the front is more slow moving. PWATs approach 2" which with days of rainfall, additional heavy rain could quickly pose issues with flooding. Stay weather aware. Showers and storms linger through Wednesday night as a couple of weak waves pass across the southwesterly flow regime and are supported by the right entrance of the upper jet. Some uncertainty with the subtle waves moving through the overall flow pattern. Not much in the way of instability during this time, so severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night currently looks unlikely. Cooler temperatures look to prevail. THURSDAY ONWARD: Unsettled continues to be the theme of the forecast into next weekend with the blocking high remaining in place over the Mid Atlantic to TN Valley. Numerous waves/troughs swing through the mid level pattern, with the upper jet either overhead or just north. Models vary in the timing/location of each wave, but generally expect shower/storm chances to continue. Temperatures near normal.&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Storms have developed as of 17.04z from just north of KFSD stretching southwest into northwestern NE. Expect storms to continue developing and slowly moving northeast through the overnight hours. Large hail and heavy rainfall are possible. Expect MVFR and lower conditions with any storms. MVFR to possibly IFR stratus expected tomorrow with additional rounds of showers and storms through the period. Lower confidence in convective timing after daybreak Monday. Winds shift to more southerly through the period with gusts up to 30 knots. Could see some low level winds shear area wide after sunset Monday (18.01-02z) but given the expected gusts have omitted for now. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && DISCUSSION...Dux/SG AVIATION...SG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 452 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 MNZ071-072-080-081-097-SDZ038>040-052>059-181000- Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Pipestone-Beadle-Kingsbury- Brookings-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison- 452 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least the early afternoon hours of Monday. Severe storms are not anticipated. A very conditional and uncertain risk for thunderstorms will develop early this evening and continue through midnight. If thunderstorms could develop, there may be a risk for ping pong ball size hail and strong winds to 60 mph into the early overnight hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A very active weather pattern is likely through the next week, with several chances for thunderstorms capable of marginal severe weather and locally heavy rainfall. One slightly higher risk for severe storms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along and east of Interstate 29. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activity may be needed Monday evening. IAZ001>003-012>014-022-MNZ089-090-098-SDZ060>062-066-067-070- 181000- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Buena Vista-Nobles- Jackson-Rock-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln- 452 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will continue through mid-day Monday, with some continued potential for brief wind gusts to 40 to 60 mph focused along the Missouri River and areas of Northwest Iowa. The risk for these strong wind gusts will diminish by sunrise. However, heavy rain will continue to fall, with total potential rain totals of 1 to 3 inches by early afternoon. This rainfall may lead to rises on area streams and rivers, as well as ponding water in fields. A very uncertain risk for thunderstorms returns late Monday afternoon and Monday evening, though development may be rather isolated. If storms form, the primary risk will be ping pong ball size hail and brief strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A very active weather pattern is likely through the next week, with several chances for thunderstorms capable of marginal severe weather and locally heavy rainfall. One slightly higher risk for severe storms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along and east of Interstate 29. A line of storms may form bringing a risk for localized damaging wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today, however rainfall totals are appreciated. SDZ050-063>065-068-069-181000- Gregory-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton- 452 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will continue through late Monday morning, bringing additional rainfall. This rainfall, on top of the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall overnight may lead to rises on area streams, rivers, and pond of water in flatland areas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop late Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a risk for large hail and damaging winds. This risk will diminish late Monday evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A very active weather pattern is likely through the next week, with several chances for thunderstorms capable of marginal severe weather and locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today, however rainfall reports are appreciated. IAZ020-021-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-181000- Plymouth-Cherokee-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union- 452 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, northeast Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will continue through mid-day Monday, with some continued potential for brief wind gusts to 40 to 60 mph focused along the Missouri River and areas of Northwest Iowa. The risk for these strong wind gusts will diminish by sunrise. However, heavy rain will continue to fall, with total potential rain totals of 1 to 4 inches by early afternoon. This rainfall may lead to rises on area streams and rivers, as well as ponding water in fields. Localized flash flooding may also be possible in and around the Sioux City area. A very uncertain risk for thunderstorms returns late Monday afternoon and Monday evening, though development may be rather isolated. If storms form, the primary risk will be ping pong ball size hail and brief strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A very active weather pattern is likely through the next week, with several chances for thunderstorms capable of marginal severe weather and locally heavy rainfall. One slightly higher risk for severe storms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along and east of Interstate 29. A line of storms may form bringing a risk for localized damaging wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today, however rainfall totals are appreciated.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
251 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0225 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Orange City 43.00N 96.08W
06/17/2024 M60 MPH Sioux IA Mesonet
Mesonet station RTNI4 Alton.
&&
duxPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0239 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Worthington 43.63N 95.57W
06/17/2024 M54 MPH Nobles MN AWOS
AWOS station KOTG Worthington Airport.
&&
duxPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
300 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0253 AM Tstm Wnd Gst Lake Park 43.45N 95.33W
06/17/2024 M53 MPH Dickinson IA Mesonet
Personal weather station.
&&
duxPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
314 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0305 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE Lake Park 43.40N 95.31W
06/17/2024 M56 MPH Dickinson IA Mesonet
Mesonet station AS497 Lake Park.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
325 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0317 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Windom 43.85N 95.12W
06/17/2024 M54 MPH Jackson MN Mesonet
Personal Weather Station.
&&
DuxPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
355 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ENE Jackson 43.63N 94.97W
06/17/2024 M53 MPH Jackson MN AWOS
AWOS station KMJQ Jackson Airport.
&&
DuxThe Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:01 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall occurred between 0200-0400 CST causing a rapid rise in smaller creeks and streams. Significant water flow with debris washed over Nebraska Highway 12 near mile marker 232.
Heavy rainfall between 0200-0400 CST resulted in a rapid rise of small creeks and streams in the hilly terrain southeast of Newcastle. Several inches of water and debris washed across the road near the intersection of 585 Avenue and 882 Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1195844, 1195845.