Damaging Wind in Montana, June 4, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
328 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.UPDATE...

Snow showers and gusty winds along the Beartooth Highway have
diminished. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory has been
ended.

Matos

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...

Lingering snow showers and gusty winds along the Beartooth Pass
have resulted in adverse travel conditions since last evening. As
result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 9AM. These
showers and winds are expected to diminish by early morning.

In the wake of yesterday's frontal passage, increasing winds and
gusts are filling into the forecast area today. The windiest areas
will be out west where several highlights are in effect or will
go into effect later this morning. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph are
expected for Judith Gap, Southern Wheatland County, Melville
Foothills, and Northern Sweet Grass County. A Wind Advisory will
go into effect at 6AM this morning for the Beartooth Foothills and
the Livingston area, with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

Another period of gusty winds is anticipated on Wednesday in the
eastern areas, with strong 700mb winds in place. Low level lapse
rates in the range of 6-9 C/km are shown in the latest model
soundings. Along with these mid-level winds and steep lapse rates,
there will be ample descent over Northern Rosebud, Custer, Powder
River, Fallon, and Carter counties. Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening, the NBM has wind speeds in the 25-35 mph range
along with wind gusts approaching 60 mph. Because of this, we have
issued a High Wind Watch for the aforementioned counties beginning
6AM MDT Wednesday and ending 6PM MDT Wednesday.

Upper level ridging will continue to build across the Northern
Rockies through Wednesday, resulting in warming temperatures and
drier conditions. High temperatures will be in the 70s today and
tomorrow.

Matos

Wednesday Night through Monday...

Winds will finally die down Wednesday night as troffing to our
northeast departs and surface high pressure builds from the
northwest. Building upper level ridge will then bring dry
conditions through early Friday.

The combination of a fairly strong ridge over the western CONUS
and weak lows off the CA coast and near Baja will allow for
monsoon-like moisture to spread northward under the ridge.
Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be above normal, but more
importantly, the mid and upper level moisture (w/ pwats climbing
above normal) should be enough for diurnal weak thunderstorms each
of these days. The main risk will be over our southern mountains
and foothills initially, but could spread northward to include
much of our area by Sunday. Do not see a severe risk on any of
these days, per the weak flow aloft, but gusty and erratic outflow
boundaries will probably be a theme w/ this convection. By
Monday, we could see height falls with a weak Pacific trof and an
increased chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble
analysis shows Monday as the favored time for potential meaningful
QPF, as well as cooler temperatures.

The string of warmer than normal days (and above freezing temps at
night) will promote mountain snow melt and increased flows on
rivers and streams for the end of the week and through the
weekend. Flooding is not expected, but folks will want to stay
aware of the higher water levels.

For anyone wondering where our severe thunderstorm +season is,
there are subtle signs of a more convective-looking pattern by the
middle of June, with a PacNW trof and southwest flow extending
thru the northern Rockies and high plains.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers east of KBIL will continue to track eastward and
exit our area by around 12z this morning. Dry conditions with
widespread VFR will persist today and tonight. The main aviation
hazard over the next 24 hours is wind. Look for W-NW winds gusting
to 40-55 knots along the western foothills (KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ), and
30-45 knots elsewhere. Highest gusts east of the foothills will be
from mid morning until sunset. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 055/077 049/081 055/085 057/083 058/085 057/077
    0/N 00/N    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    34/T
LVM 071 053/077 046/084 053/085 053/083 054/082 053/076
    1/N 00/N    00/U    01/U    11/B    13/T    55/T
HDN 076 053/076 046/080 052/086 056/085 056/086 056/078
    1/N 00/N    00/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    34/T
MLS 073 055/072 046/078 051/085 054/082 055/084 055/076
    1/N 00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T
4BQ 073 055/072 046/078 052/085 055/083 056/085 056/077
    5/W 00/N    00/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    33/T
BHK 071 051/071 044/075 048/082 051/080 051/080 051/074
    3/W 00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    33/T
SHR 074 050/074 044/080 052/085 054/081 054/084 054/075
    3/W 00/N    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    44/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through
      Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
     High Wind Warning in effect until noon MDT Wednesday FOR
      ZONES 63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings