Wildfire in Montana, August 1 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1150 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...Aviation Section Update...

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm weather is expected to return through Saturday, with highs
expected to reach the 90s and even a few isolated 100 degree
readings over the next few days. A cooler and more active weather
pattern returns over the weekend, with thunderstorms expected for
the first half of next week.

&&

.Update...

Minimal updates this evening, with the primary change being to
cool overnight temperatures by 3 to 7 degrees across Southwest
through North Central Montana. Upper level ridge continues to
build eastward over the Northern Rockies all the while amplifying
towards the north. Skies beneath this upper level ridge will
largely remain cloud and smoke/haze free through the overnight
hours, with decreasing southwest to west surface winds. These
light winds and clear skies will help to maximize radiational
cooling, especially given the overall dry conditions over the past
month (i.e. dry soils, which fairly inefficient at retaining
heat). Otherwise the remainder of the forecast remains on track,
with fog expected across some of the Southwest and Central
Montana valleys during the morning hours on Thursday (most notably
the Big Hole and Lincoln Valleys). - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
01/06Z TAF Period

Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and KWYS.

VFR conditions are forecast for all airfields throughout this TAF
period. Fog/mist may develop at KWYS during the overnight hours;
however, confidence is too low to include fog/mist in the KWYS TAF.
Generally, light and variable winds are forecast across north
central, central and southwest Montana. Low elevation high
temperatures in the 90s favor density altitude impacts.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 558 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024/

Key Points:

-Warm and dry weather expected through Friday

-Cooler, but more unsettled, weather expected starting Saturday

Short term (through Friday)... Upper level ridging will be the
main weather feature across Montana over the next few days,
keeping us warm and dry through the end of the work week. With
this upper level ridge in place, temperatures will rise over the
next few days, with many areas seeing highs in the 90s (and even a
few low 100s) Thursday and Friday, though overnight lows will dip
into the upper 50s and low 60s for most locations, which will
help to limit the amount of heat stress that is experienced and
negating the need for any sort of Heat Advisories.

Extended (Saturday through next Wednesday)... While the upper
level ridging will remain on Saturday, keeping warm temperatures
in place across the region, an embedded shortwave trough will
result in increasing clouds across the area, with a few rain
showers likely to develop by sunset. With increased moisture in
the area on Sunday, along with some overall favorable atmospheric
dynamics, showers and thunderstorms will readily develop on
Sunday, and there may be enough shear to allow for a few stronger
and more organized thunderstorms. This will look to be the case
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons and evenings as well,
even as daytime highs gradually drop from the mid 80s to low 90s
on Sunday to the mid 70s to near 80 on Wednesday. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  93  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  92  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  55  97  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  94  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  39  84  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  89  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  57  95  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  52  89  59  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls