A major outbreak of severe weather occurred on the 8th for the Quad State region. On the synoptic scale, a longwave trough was centered across the Rockies with deep-layer southwesterly flow from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A major outbreak of severe weather occurred on the 8th for the Quad State region. On the synoptic scale, a longwave trough was centered across the Rockies with deep-layer southwesterly flow from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. A 110 kt upper jet extended from northern KS to IA while a 60 kt mid-level jet was positioned across northern MZ into IA. Surface low pressure near the MZ/KS border lifted to St. Louis around 12am CST on the 9th. A warm frontal boundary stretched across the Quad State, with a cold front extending southward from the surface low.
The environment became unstable by early afternoon, especially in SE Missouri, with MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear was on the order of 55-65 kts, though low-level shear was 15 kts, increasing to 20 kts later in the day. SRH was around 100-150 m2/s2 with higher values north towards St. Louis. STP values were 2-3 due to deep-layer shear and instability. Supercell activity was more prominent during the afternoon to the east in Southern Illinois or Western Kentucky compared to Southeast Missouri.
For Southeast Missouri, storms moved through with the cold front late evening on the 7th through the overnight hours with marginally severe wind gusts in Advance. The front reversed course and began lifting as a warm front in the morning. Though convective organization was mainly in Western Kentucky at first, late morning storms near the Missouri/Illinois border produced a brief EF-0 tornado northeast of Cape Girardeau. The mid-afternoon and late afternoon lines of storms had a glancing impact on northern portions of Southeast Missouri, with the late evening storm line finally pushing across, producing widespread wind damage in Ripley County and hail further east.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 5:36 PM CST, 6 hours 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 636 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Remain weather aware today through Wednesday evening as multiple rounds of severe weather are expected, and the potential exists for a higher end storm system Wednesday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through the evening, with some of these storms strong to severe. - Storms begin again Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward. A more significant and widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected as a storm complex moves across the forecast area later in the day Wednesday, with a cold front bringing additional storms in the evening. - Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding issues, with the highest chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Cooler and drier air moves in for the end of the week and weekend with highs in the 70s and lower humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Following the morning storms, skies have remained mostly cloudy across the Quad State region. Despite the patches of cloud cover, temperatures have risen to the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The first initial afternoon showers have struggled to get going, with better convection north of the forecast area. The environment has many robust parameters this afternoon. SBCAPE above 3000 with MLCAPE above 2000-2500 provides plenty of instability. 0-6km shear is around 60 kts (higher to the northwest outside the CWA), and STP is at 3-4, while 0-3 km shear is 20-35 kts for now. While dew points are near 70, storms are not firing at this time. One parameter that is lacking is mid-level lapse rates which are around 6-6.5 C/km and slight capping is present around 850 mb. The right exit region of the jet is near I-64 at this time, also limiting development, but should shift away to the northeast by the evening. Models focus late afternoon development further near the I-64 corridor with surface convergence near St Louis on satellite, though storms are possible elsewhere. These storms are more likely to take the form of discrete cells/supercells. For the evening hours, the more favorable development will be near and south of the Ohio River, with a more patchy linear development. All severe hazards remain possible with these storms, albeit with hail potential skewed more towards the afternoon hours rather than later in the evening. Flooding potential today is fairly limited, as long as any linear development this evening progresses southward. This rainfall would set the stage for tomorrow. For the overnight hours, a brief break in rainfall is anticipated. Partial clearing, especially in the north, could allow for brief development of patchy fog with calm winds. The cold front stalls out overnight, reversing course back north during the morning as a warm front as low pressure tracks northeastward from Oklahoma towards St Louis. Models differ in positioning, strength, and timing, but are better aligned on morning convection developing with the warm front. Strong to severe storms are possible, more likely later in the morning. After these repeated rounds of storms today and tomorrow morning, the main event is likely to be a robust squall line moving through during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Supercells are possible ahead of the squall line which, depending on morning activity, may encounter a clear warm sector environment suitable for a sustained track. Models differ on whether the afternoon MCS remains connected with the cold front in Arkansas or surges out ahead. CAPE is roughly as high as today, and more robust helicity and shear are expected along with mid-level lapse rates rising to around 8C/km, providing a much more favorable environment if the morning storms progress far enough to allow for recovery before the afternoon MCS. The main MCS should limit any follow up storm development but portions of SEMO or Western Kentucky that stay just south of the afternoon storms will have better lingering potential for the evening. All hazards are on the table, including significant wind or strong tornadoes. With the warm front in the morning, and robust storm activity in the afternoon, along with prior rainfall, localized flooding issues are likely to develop Wednesday. Exact positioning is limited due to uncertainty in warm front location and stalling potential. Cooler and much drier air surges in Wednesday night following the front. More seasonal temperatures are expected for the end of week and weekend with fairly dry weather as most models keep a Great Lakes system to our northeast for the weekend. A Four Corners system tracks eastward, returning PoPs to the forecast early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection is struggling to get going this evening; however, not completely out of the question to have a few showers and storms over the next two to three hours. Gusty winds and heavy downpours will be the main threats along with brief MVFR conditions. A break can be expected in any convection overnight, but some fog may form, especially where rainfall occurs. A warm front will lift north through the area Wednesday bringing more widespread chances for showers and storms early in the afternoon and especially toward the evening hours. Severe weather with gusty winds and hail will be possible. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...KC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1219 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-081000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1219 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 /119 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Tonight Ongoing thunderstorms will have an all severe hazards threat tonight, as they move from southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana, into and across western Kentucky. In addition, locally heavy rains will cause a flood hazard, and frequent lightning will be a common hazard with all storms. Heed any Watches and Warnings issued. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A significant severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected Wednesday. Potential severe weather begins by mid to late morning with the warm front's approach. The primary severe weather threat will be Wednesday afternoon and evening as the cold front then makes its approach. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Localized flooding is also possible where repeat heavy rainfall may occur. Lightning too will be a commonplace hazard. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is expected tonight and Wednesday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1124 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
ILZ085-086-089-090-080500-
Saline IL-Pope IL-Johnson IL-Williamson IL-
1124 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN POPE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...
At 1124 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Creal Springs, or 9 miles southeast of Marion,
moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Creal Springs, Carrier Mills, Lake Of Egypt Area,
Stonefort, and New Burnside.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southern
Illinois.
&&
LAT...LON 3756 8892 3765 8893 3777 8858 3759 8857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 258DEG 31KT 3761 8885
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1129 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
ILZ082-083-086-087-080500-
White IL-Saline IL-Hamilton IL-Gallatin IL-
1129 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...NORTHERN
SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN GALLATIN COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...
At 1129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Galatia, or 8 miles northwest of Harrisburg, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Eldorado, Galatia, and Raleigh.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southern,
south central and southeastern Illinois.
&&
LAT...LON 3795 8833 3791 8832 3782 8828 3778 8870
3787 8870 3794 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 258DEG 31KT 3784 8861
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
ILZ083-086-087-090-INZ085-086-KYZ014-018-080530-
White IL-Saline IL-Gallatin IL-Pope IL-Posey IN-Vanderburgh IN-
Henderson KY-Union KY-
1145 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL WHITE...
NORTHEASTERN POPE...SOUTHEASTERN SALINE...GALLATIN...SOUTHWESTERN
VANDERBURGH...SOUTHERN POSEY...NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND CENTRAL
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...
At 1145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Mount Vernon to near
Shawneetown to 7 miles southeast of Carrier Mills. Movement was east
at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Morganfield, Shawneetown, Breckinridge Center, Uniontown, Ridgway,
Waverly, Old Shawneetown, and Junction.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southern and
southeastern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...and northwestern
Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3795 8759 3763 8787 3760 8825 3759 8857
3771 8836 3790 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 270DEG 20KT 3787 8797 3764 8817 3760 8856
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
ILZ092>094-KYZ004-005-MOZ112-080530-
Massac IL-Alexander IL-Pulaski IL-McCracken KY-Ballard KY-
Mississippi MO-
1153 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PULASKI...WESTERN
MASSAC...SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...CENTRAL BALLARD...NORTHWESTERN
MCCRACKEN AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM
CDT...
At 1153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mound City, or near Cairo, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cairo, La Center, Mounds, Barlow, Mound City, Kevil, and Olmsted.
This includes Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and
11.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southern
Illinois...western Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.
&&
LAT...LON 3715 8926 3726 8888 3704 8887 3701 8926
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 257DEG 30KT 3711 8917
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1200 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
INZ086>088-KYZ014-015-018>020-080545-
Warrick IN-Vanderburgh IN-Spencer IN-Henderson KY-Webster KY-
Union KY-McLean KY-Daviess KY-
1200 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WARRICK...SOUTHERN VANDERBURGH...
SPENCER...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...
CENTRAL UNION AND NORTH CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM
CDT...
At 1159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lynnville to near Sturgis. Movement was
east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Henderson, Boonville, Newburgh, Morganfield, Chandler,
Melody Hill, Breckinridge Center, Sebree, Dale, Lynnville, Corydon,
Robards, Santa Claus, Folsomville, Stanley, Eureka, Chrisney,
Waverly, and Tennyson.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 135 and 148.
Interstate 69 in Indiana between Mile Markers 1 and 13.
Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 39 and 41, between
Mile Markers 46 and 49, and between Mile Markers 51 and 60.
Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 1 and 18.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Indiana...and northwestern Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3812 8681 3811 8680 3761 8745 3761 8811
3789 8772 3789 8771 3791 8770 3820 8729
3820 8679 3814 8680 3812 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 265DEG 40KT 3813 8730 3761 8804
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
INZ088-KYZ015-016-018>020-080630-
Spencer IN-Henderson KY-Webster KY-McLean KY-Hopkins KY-Daviess KY-
1243 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SPENCER...DAVIESS...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...MCLEAN...NORTHEASTERN HOPKINS AND
NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...
At 1243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northeast of Santa Claus to Dixon.
Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Owensboro, Rockport, Calhoun, Sebree, Livermore, Grandview,
Whitesville, Knottsville, St. Joseph, Masonville, Stanley, Beech
Grove, Island, Slaughters, and Moseleyville.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 165 between Mile Markers 60 and 70.
Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 125 and 136.
Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 13 and 23.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Indiana...and south central and northwestern Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3801 8680 3799 8686 3794 8692 3793 8698
3790 8699 3790 8691 3784 8691 3784 8686
3779 8682 3774 8682 3771 8686 3767 8682
3763 8695 3755 8705 3747 8711 3748 8713
3741 8710 3750 8770 3816 8680 3800 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 277DEG 25KT 3818 8673 3749 8769
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DWThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:58 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
An enhanced area of wind in a broader storm line in Southeast Missouri produced wind gusts of 50-60 mph with pea size hail in Advance.
A midday supercell produced a brief EF-0 tornado northeast of Cape Girardeau. A mobile home suffered some minor underpinning damage. Several large tree branches were broken. A resident's outdoor camera captured the small tornado on video. Estimated max winds with this tornado were 65 mph.
Hail measured to ping pong ball size was reported via mPING south of Miner from a supercell storm.
Hail estimated to quarter size fell in East Prairie as a supercell moved eastward through Mississippi County.
A tree fell on power lines on 21S, just south of 21S-5.
Widespread wind damage occurred in Ripley County as a thunderstorm moved northeastward through the area. Fire officials reported a tree snapped off and landed on a shop on Ripley Rte N between N-7 and N-8. There was also damage to tree limbs and an uprooted 80 ft pine tree in Oxly, an uprooted tree on 142E east of Oxly, and a tree snapped off a few feet above the ground that fell onto a power line snapping a pole on Ripley Rte B just north of 142. A spotter reported thunderstorm winds producing damage to trees and power lines south of Oxly.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Missouri, 2024Warnings in Missouri, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1181936, 1181941, 1181937, 1181940, 1184268, 1181938.