In the late afternoon hours of March 12th, a supercell developed over the Lee's Summit/Greenwood area, dropping golf ball or larger hail across portions of Greenwood, Lone Jack, and up toward Oak Grove. Storms continued into the late evening hours, with a total of 21 severe thunderstorm warnings issued and 27 total local storm reports for severe hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
In the late afternoon hours of March 12th, a supercell developed over the Lee's Summit/Greenwood area, dropping golf ball or larger hail across portions of Greenwood, Lone Jack, and up toward Oak Grove. Storms continued into the late evening hours, with a total of 21 severe thunderstorm warnings issued and 27 total local storm reports for severe hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 1:53 PM CST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 253 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20 to 50% chance for thunderstorms tonight. Marginal (5 to 10%) Risk of a severe storm tonight. Quarter size hail and 60 mph winds are the greatest concern if a robust updraft can get going. - 60 to 80% chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and Evening. There is a Slight (10 to 15%) Risk of a few severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible with this activity. - 30 to 60% chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and Evening. There is a Slight (10 to 15%) Risk of a few severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with this activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Water vapor imagery shows a well defined shortwave trough quickly moving through Kansas early this afternoon. At the surface, moisture is currently very limited with dewpoints in the low to mid 40s as of 18Z. 50+ dewpoints were beginning to move in southeastern KS and become more prevalent across eastern OK. That airmass will continue to advect northward into the forecast area this afternoon, ahead of the shortwave trough. With the shortwave moving quickly across Kansas, the forcing associated with it, and it's associated surface low and boundaries, will lead to isolated to scattered convection east the KC area around 00Z this evening. This convection then quickly moves east and may be east of the forecast area by 06-07Z tonight. With moisture slow to build north, instability will be limited. But we should still be able to see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE within an environment of 30-35 KTs of deep-layer shear, though most of that is in the bottom half of that layer. Given this, storms may exhibit shallow rotation/ supercell structures, before becoming more multicellular or even become a line as they move eastward. Steep mid- level lapse rates will help support a marginal severe hail threat. The better setup for severe storms will be late Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. A warm front will lift northward into the area with deeper moisture building into the area as a result. This deeper moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, will result in a more unstable atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. MLCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg are expected by Wednesday afternoon. In the upper levels, a strong jet will be nosing into the area and the forecast area may be in the left front quadrant of that jet, with diffluent flow above the unstable airmass. Additionally, stronger flow aloft will lead to stronger deep-layer shear and we may see 45-50kts of 0-6km shear by 00Z. Given the parameters, there is potential for supercells and with steep lapse rates aloft, there may be large hail with the strongest storms. Damaging winds and a tornado or two are also possible with these storms. The most widespread activity will be in the vicinity of the warm front as it is lifting northward. For storms that are north of the warm front, the weak instability present is mainly elevated so the threat of severe storms is lower. Instability rapidly increases along and south of the warm front, leading to greater coverage and severe potential. South of the warm front, well into the warm sector, warm air aloft will inhibit convection, limiting coverage. But if a storm can develop and/or maintain itself in the arm sector, there would be greater potential for it to be severe given the stronger instability. This activity will lift northward throughout the evening and overnight hours as the warm front lifts north, mainly affecting northern MO as a result. The last round of storms will affect the area Thursday afternoon and evening. A mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward from the main trough digging into the Southwest. This wave will help push a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon and evening. CAPE and shear parameters will be supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells. The best potential for strong to severe storms also continues to look east of the KC area, and mainly for the eastern half of the forecast area from Thursday afternoon through the evening hours. Veered low level flow and nearly unidirectional flow aloft may limit the potential for tornadoes. But relatively steep lapse rates aloft, combined with the strong instability and shear will be supportive of large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates with dry air aloft will also result in higher downdraft CAPE, which support potential for damaging winds. Cooler air will move into the area for the weekend with temperatures really just closer to normal for this time of year. A strong trough will dive into the eastern US Sunday into Monday. This will push a reinforcing bout of colder air into the region. So for outdoor festivities on Monday, temperatures will be the coolest of the entire forecast, with highs in the middle to upper 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected (>90%) through the forecast. Winds will be from the SSW around 20kts with gusts to around 30kts this afternoon/ early this evening. Winds diminish overnight and become more southerly. The best chance for storms looks to be east of the terminals later this afternoon into the overnight hours. So don't even have a mention at this point for any precipitation chances. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-130915- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Rain showers and thunderstorms are possible late this evening. A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of the area Wednesday and Thursday. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
542 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
MOZ037-043-122315-
Cass MO-Jackson MO-
542 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CASS AND
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...
At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Raymore, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Raytown, Grandview, Belton,
Raymore, Pleasant Hill, Greenwood, Peculiar, Lake Lotawana, Lake
Winnebago, Lone Jack, Lake Tapawingo, Baldwin Park, and Unity
Village.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 15 and 17.
Interstate 470 between mile markers 2 and 16.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3884 9461 3887 9461 3906 9435 3885 9415
3867 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 231DEG 20KT 3884 9448
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HBThe Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 9 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:55 UTC.
24 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several photos on social media showing ping pong ball sized hail in Greenwood with damage to vehicles.
Photos of golf ball sized hail just east of Greenwood about 1 mile east of Ranson Road.
Quarter sized hail at Summit Ridge Apartments off Tudor Road in Lee's Summit.
Ping pong ball sized hail on the east side of Lees Summit near US Highway 50 and Blackwell Road.
Quarter sized hail in Lone Jack.
Social media photos of what appears to be ping pong ball sized hail just northeast of Lone Jack.
Half dollar size hail along Interstate 70 just east of Bates City.
Quarter size hail in Odessa.
Social media photo of ping pong ball sized hail in Lake Lafayette.
Mping report of half dollar sized hail near Route M and Varner Road southeast of Odessa.
Quarter sized hail just southeast of Cowgill.
Quarter sized hail in Raytown.
Half dollar sized hail near Bates City.
Quarter sized hail in Excelsior Springs.
Quarter sized hail in Oak Grove.
Golf ball sized hail about 4 miles north of Oak Grove.
Ping pong ball sized hail near the intersection of Buckner Tarsney Rd and Truman Rd north of Grain Valley.
Golf ball sized hail in north Grain Valley.
Quarter sized hail just southeast of Browning in far northern Linn County.
Two inch hail was reported just south of US Highway 24 about 2 miles SSW of Napoleon.
Quarter sized hail was reported just north of 7 Highway between Garden City and Creighton.
Two inch hail was reported in Wellington.
Quarter sized hail was reported in Sweet Springs from an mping report.
Quarter sized hail was reported on the campus of the University of Central Missouri in Warrensburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1156524, 1156525, 1156527, 1156526, 1156528, 1156529, 1156530, 1156531, 1156532, 1156541, 1156542, 1156544, 1156547, 1156543, 1156545, 1156546, 1156549, 1156550, 1156551, 1156552, 1156555, 1156553, 1156558, 1156560.