During the evening hours of June 4th, a storm brought wind damage to the Excelsior Springs area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
During the evening hours of June 4th, a storm brought wind damage to the Excelsior Springs area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 5:19 PM CST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected this evening in much of the area (50 to 85 percent chance). Severe storms cannot be ruled out, with damaging winds and marginally severe hail the main threats. - Dry and near-seasonal temperatures expected through the rest of the work week. - Chances for storms return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Main forecast challenge remains the threat of severe weather this evening. A vigorous upper-level trough is moving through the northern Plains this afternoon, with a surface cold front moving east/southeast, extending from western Minnesota to northern Kansas early this afternoon. A few storms have initiated near the boundary in central Kansas, in advance of a weak perturbation moving into the central/southern Plains and along the northern periphery of moderately to strongly unstable air (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and in the wake of an instability minimum in portions of the CWA (via a departing MCV). CAMs increase coverage of convection gradually through the evening hours, though how quickly and to what extent remains rather variable. Recent HRRR simulations are relatively aggressive, producing scattered convection in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri through much of the evening before a somewhat more organized broken line of convection moves through the CWA later in the evening. The 12z NAM Nest is similar, though a little more skittish on convection through mid evening. One limiting factor to a more substantial severe threat is the marginal shear in place (e.g., 0-6 km bulk shear < 30 kt). With low-level winds remaining weak, the tornado threat is quite low; however, dry midlevels and modest midlevel flow may permit the development of strong wind gusts with the strongest convective cores. Additionally, substantial instability should permit the development of hail in the strongest cores (given what we are observing to the west), particularly if convection remains somewhat discrete. The greatest severe threat appears to be from 7 to 11 pm this evening, as the front moves into the CWA and more substantial instability remains. The severe threat should gradually diminish with time late in the evening/overnight as nocturnal stabilization increases and convective outflow becomes dominant. The front will sweep through the CWA overnight, with any precipitation exiting to our south and east by daybreak. The remainder of the week will be dominated by northwest flow and a surface high shifting southeastward through the Plains. This should result in a dry/seasonal/pleasant period for the region. Eventually, a midlevel ridge in the western U.S. will progress into the Intermountain West, providing a more favorable track for ejecting perturbations riding the ridge southeastward into the Plains. Meanwhile, the surface high should move well to our southeast by the weekend. This is a setup favorable for MCS development in the warm season. Models are beginning to converge on the first of such events occurring Friday night into Saturday (e.g., the 12z GFS and CMC). The pattern is low- predictability owing to the low amplitude of the overall upper flow and potential convective augmentation of the midlevel vorticity maxima. Nevertheless, with the increasingly favorable overall pattern, think mention of low-chance (below 40 percent) PoPs is warranted Friday night and Saturday. Subsequent perturbations may track farther south (as suggested by deterministic models), so PoPs are lower later in the weekend. However, considerable modification to the forecast may occur given the aforementioned low predictability. Forecast uncertainty increases further next week as models diverge in their handling of a weak upper low within the broader upper ridging to our west. In the evolving pattern, would think precipitation chances gradually increase, though specific timing is quite uncertain at this point. Of higher certainty is the continued near-seasonal temperature forecast given the lack of high-amplitude ridging and the periodic chances of storms this weekend onward. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions expected outside of timeframe for thunderstorms (~around 02Z-05Z). They are expected to move to the east of the terminals around midnight tonight. Winds are expected to come from the southwest before shifting to the north early tomorrow morning. With the passage of the frontal boundary, skies will gradually clear out by Wednesday morning. There may be an occasional gust to 20 knots with diurnal mixing tomorrow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && DISCUSSION...CMS AVIATION...Collier
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-050830- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Strong to severe storms are expected after 5 PM tonight. Large hail and straight line damaging winds are possible with these storms. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
MOZ002>004-050000-
Worth MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-
620 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN WORTH...NORTHWESTERN
GENTRY AND NODAWAY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...
At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hopkins to near Maryville. Movement was
east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Stanberry, Grant City, Hopkins, Ravenwood, Irena, Barnard,
Conception Junction, Sheridan, Parnell, Pickering, Guilford, Clyde,
Gentry, Arkoe, Worth, Athelstan, and Conception.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4057 9439 4012 9444 4013 9501 4058 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 267DEG 35KT 4060 9487 4027 9489
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BlairThe Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:01 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Report of a large tree limb downed at the Excelsior Springs dog park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1170872.