Tornado and Flash Flood in Missouri, April 28 to 29, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant and dangerous severe weather is expected tonight
  in areas along and west of Highway 65. Greatest potential is
  focused along and west of I-49 where tornadoes (potentially
  EF2+)...hail to the size of baseballs...and wind gusts up to
  70 mph are all possible.

- Significant and dangerous flooding is expected in areas along
  and west of Highway 65 as additional heavy rain impacts the
  area this evening into Sunday morning. A Flood Watch is in
  effect from 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.

- Strong to severe weather and additional flooding is expected
  again Sunday into Sunday night.

- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances
  mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper analysis and
water vapor imagery show a broad trough over the great basin and
southwest U.S. with a closed low centered roughly over the 4
corners region. Broad southwesterly flow continues out ahead of
the low and into the central U.S. A well defined surface front
was located from northeast of a low in the OK panhandle into
northeast Kansas and northeast Iowa with mid 60s dew points in
the warm sector south of the low. A dryline extended south of
the low west Texas. Convection has developed in the warm sector
over western OK into south central KS and also along the
frontal boundary in central into northeast KS.

Tonight: 18z sounding still shows an inversion from around 800mb
to 750mb. Still some decent elevated instability above the
inversion layer with 1000-1500 j/kg. CAMS are suggesting some
scattered convection over the area this afternoon and early
evening over the eastern CWA. Large hail and damaging winds
would be the main risk with any initial development in our east.
Later this evening and overnight, the convection which is
currently developing to our west is expected to move into the
western CWA. Supercells will be possible initially with very
large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph and a few strong tornadoes possible. Overnight, this
activity will likely form into a thunderstorm complex, with all
modes of severe weather still possible. Very heavy rainfall is
expected with PW values of 1.2" to 1.7" over the area. Storms
will likely train from southwest to northeast with repeated
heavy rain over the same area. Unfortunately, this will be the
same areas which have received heavy rain and flooding the past
2 days. Several inches of additional rain are expected in the
western CWA which will likely lead to additional flooding and
potentially significant flooding. Several rivers are already in
moderate flood stage and there continues to flooding from the
previous 2 days of heavy rain. A flood watch is in effect from 7
pm this evening through 1 pm Sunday.

Sunday and Sunday night: A thunderstorm complex will continue
to push east across the area Sunday morning. The main upper
trough axis and surface front will still be west of the area. If
sufficient destabilization can occur behind the thunderstorm
complex on Sunday afternoon, then additional strong to severe
thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible as the upper wave
pushes to the northeast. If convection does redevelop, it would
then push east across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main risks,
with tornadoes still possible. Heavy rain and flooding will also
be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The convection should push southeast of the area on Monday with
high pressure moving into the area. Moisture will begin to lift
back north into the area by mid to late week with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing again in the Wednesday to
Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate through the TAF
period, beginning with JLN. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is likely (80-90% chance) to impact all TAF sites,
dropping ceilings to at least MVFR. Rain within these storms may
be heavy at times. The best chance for the line of storms to
move through is between 07-11Z for JLN and 08-13Z for SGF/BBG.
Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible with this line of
storms. Hail up to the size of golf balls and a tornado or two
also cannot be ruled out. After the initial line clears out,
there will be some lingering scattered showers before another
line of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop after 22Z.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph will also be possible with these storms.

Besides the heavy rain/thunderstorms, winds will remain
southerly, sometimes gusting up to 25 kts, especially during the
day. A low-level jet will keep wind shear across the TAF sites
until 12Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>081-088>096-101>105.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Price

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
238 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Significant hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

An east to west gradient of incraesing severe risk exists for our
forecast area tonight (generally after 7 PM). Springfield is
within a Slight (2/5) risk, Mount Vernon is within an Enhanced
(3/5) risk, and Joplin, Nevada and Pittsburg, KS are within a
Moderate (4/5) risk. For areas generally along and west of I-49,
significant severe weather is expected with strong tornadoes, hail
up to the size of baseballs, and wind gusts up to 70 mph all
possible.

Initial storms in this region will likely be training supercells
bringing all hazards before another round of storms comes through
as a line bringing mainly wind gusts and a spinup tornado or two.
This line of storms will move eastward and impact Springfield in
the early morning hours (generally between 1-4 AM).

With the training nature of storms, high amounts of moisture, and
multiple rounds of rain, significant area, river, and flash
flooding is also expected, especially in areas that have already
received 3-6 inches of rain. This includes locations along and
west of Highway 65. A Moderate (3/4) risk for excessive rainfall
exists for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather Sunday as well.
All hazards will be possible for both days. Heavy rainfall and
flooding will also be possible with the storms. Portions of our
forecast area are in a Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall
and flooding Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today and tonight
for areas mainly west of the highway 65 corridor

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1024 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     Flash Flood      2 E Nevada              37.83N 94.33W
04/27/2024                   Vernon             MO   Public

            Report from mPING. River or Creek
            overflowing, Cropland, Yard ot Basement
            Flooding.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1028 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     Flash Flood      3 E Nevada              37.86N 94.30W
04/27/2024                   Vernon             MO   Public

            Report from mPING. Street, road flooding.
            Street, road closed and Vehicles stranded.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1053 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Rain             Fort Scott              37.84N 94.71W
04/27/2024  M4.00 Inch       Bourbon            KS   Public

            Storm total so far of 4.00 inches of rain.
            Via social media.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1058 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     Rain             Nevada                  37.84N 94.36W
04/27/2024  M2.64 Inch       Vernon             MO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW7458 Nevada 3 hour
            rainfall total.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MOZ067-078-280515-
Cedar MO-St. Clair MO-
1126 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CEDAR AND SOUTHERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
El Dorado Springs, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake, El Dorado Springs, Osceola, Collins, Roscoe, Vista,
Gerster, Tiffin, Caplinger Mills, Filley, and Cedar Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central,
southwestern and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 9357 3783 9357 3783 9363 3778 9363
      3775 9399 3795 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 247DEG 24KT 3786 9395

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Warsaw             38.27N 93.33W
04/27/2024                   Benton             MO   Public

            Delayed report. Report from mPING. 1-inch
            tree limbs broken, Shingles blown off. Time
            based on radar.

&&

TEO