Tornado in Minnesota, July 7, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ongoing this
  afternoon are expected through this evening.

- A few stronger storms may form in northwest Wisconsin this
  afternoon and early this evening.

- Monday and Tuesday feature continued daytime storm chances
  before a downturn in activity is expected Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Gradual warming trend through the week. Above normal temps
  possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A closed upper low embedded within a broader upper-level trough
was centered over west-central Minnesota early this morning. As
of 4 AM a broken arc of showers and thunderstorms stretched
from southeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota then
curving toward the southeast across portions of central and
east-central Minnesota into western Wisconsin and eastern Iowa.
The upper low is forecast to propagate northeastward into the
Arrowhead by this evening. Showers and storms will persist to
the north and east of the low center along the axis of a thermal
trough. Mostly clear skies were found over southwest Minnesota.

Shower and storm coverage is expected to increase later this
morning as the thermal trough rotates farther north into
northern Minnesota to Upper Michigan. In the wake of this
initial band of precip, expect partial clearing over the I-35
corridor and across northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures this
afternoon will climb into the middle and upper 70s in those
areas. The combination of several hours of heating and the
morning precipitation will provide modest instability with
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. CAMs demonstrate a
line of storms developing along a nascent cold front from Lake
County down to near Spooner. The storms will push east-
northeastward along and ahead of the boundary through this
evening. Deep layer shear will increase to 30 to 35 knots ahead
of the front which will raise the potential for a few strong to
severe storms. Mid- level lapse rate of 6 to 6.5 degC/km are
forecast, so there will be a small risk of hail up to 1 inch in
diameter. Hodographs feature a little low-level curvature and
LCLs will be around 3kft AGL. Given these parameters, the
potential for a tornado will be low, but not zero over northwest
Wisconsin.

The upper trough pivot through the Upper Midwest Monday as the
upper low drifts into northeast Ontario. Cool air aloft will
support another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough will propagate
southeastward through the western periphery of the main trough
for Tuesday, which will support another round of diurnal showers
and storms. Ridging aloft will build for Wednesday and Thursday
which will limit our shower and storm chances as the remnants
of TS Beryl move northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into
the central Great Lakes.

With the building ridge, expect temperatures to trend gradually
warmer through the week. A few spots will have a shot at 90
degrees Friday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Low pressure moving into northwest Minnesota this afternoon is
creating a band of rainfall near INL and increasing scattered
thunderstorm coverage in northwest Wisconsin. A few strong
thunderstorms may impact east of a line from OLG to RZN,
including HYR, through 01Z this evening. Scattered rain showers
persist through 06Z overnight tonight. Overnight fog and mist
are expected at some terminals, creating very likely MVFR
conditions, possible IFR and a low chance of localized LIFR.
Another period of daytime thunderstorms and showers form again
after 16Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Winds will generally be in the 5 to 12 knot range over the next
several days. A relaxed pressure gradient over the region should
provide offshore flow during the overnights. Weak low pressure
passing through the region today and tonight will turn winds
northeasterly and then backing southwest for Monday. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms today and tonight, and again
during the afternoon and evening hours of Monday and Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Huyck

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
458 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-081000-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
458 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High water levels continue across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, and minor flooding is occurring.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible late this morning through
this evening over the Minnesota Arrowhead, I-35 corridor, and
northwest Wisconsin. An isolated severe storm is possible in
northwest Wisconsin where there is a small chance of damaging
winds and hail up to an inch in diameter. There is a low chance
for a tornado as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional rounds of non-severe afternoon and evening
thunderstorms expected at least through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-081000-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
458 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some strong thunderstorms are possible today, especially this
afternoon and early evening along the South Shore. Gusty winds and
hail are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

On and off rounds of afternoon thunderstorms expected at least
through Tuesday.

Levens/Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth