An upper level trough crossing the region amid an unstable summertime environment generated pop-up afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Minor wind damage occurred primarily in Antrim and Otsego counties, as well as in Arenac county with a separate cell.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
An upper level trough crossing the region amid an unstable summertime environment generated pop-up afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Minor wind damage occurred primarily in Antrim and Otsego counties, as well as in Arenac county with a separate cell. Additionally, an unusually moist airmass in place led to some localized rainfall reports in excess of 2 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 2:21 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 321 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms diminish tonight. - Isolated showers and storms on Tuesday east of I-75. - While some uncertainty remains, the latest trends keep the bulk of remnants of Beryl to the south of northern Michigan. - Increasing warmth/humidity this weekend with more instability- driven shower/storm chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Generally lower heights to the north and west tonight with a feature aloft advecting through N MI into Tuesday morning. General west to southwest flow aloft Tuesday afternoon with the lower than normal heights flattening out as a jet streak moves through N MI into Canada. Weak west to northwest sfc flow will likely allow for some sort of marine influence and local convergence across the Lake Huron coastal sections during the afternoon hours, thus isolated storms possible. Primary Forecast Concerns: Marginal environment for strong thunderstorms will prevail this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms quickly diminishing with time overnight with both the loss of daytime heating and upper support. Still, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two early in the evening (environment of ~1000-1500J/kg of CAPE and ~30kts of bulk shear) producing gusty winds, hail, and/or locally heavy rain. Otherwise, mild overnight temperatures expected. Heading into Tuesday, flow washes out aloft, with weak west to northwest sfc winds. Consequently, looks to be a potential convergence zone near the lake shores of Lake Huron, especially southeast portions of the area. With modest moisture and lingering weak instability, chance for weak isolated thunderstorms east of I- 75. Not expecting severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, broad troughing anticipated across the nation's midsection sandwiched between weak ridging off the East Coast and more amplified ridging/heat dome out west. Remnants of Hurricane Beryl expected to already be ingested into aforementioned troughing with ~1007mb surface low situated near southern IL/western KY. Focus through midweek will revolve around increased potential for wet weather as that system continues to trek northeast toward the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes. Late week into the weekend, rising heights will aid to promote increasing warmth and humidity across the Great Lakes. Potential also exists for more instability driven showers/storms Friday through the weekend. Forecast Details: Generally tranquil conditions anticipated Tuesday night with remnants of Beryl approaching from the southwest. While some uncertainty remains, latest ensemble means keep low pressure centered over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with the highest probability for potentially impactful rain across IN/northern OH and southeast MI. Locally, the highest chances for showers associated with this system continue to be focused across southeastern areas, especially near Saginaw Bay through the day Wednesday. Additional uncertainties riddle the forecast Thursday with potential for lingering moisture and additional mid-level wave providing the impetus for at least low chances for showers/storms. Friday into the weekend, slowly rising heights are anticipated to aid in building heat/humidity back across northern Michigan. Latest trends support high temps well into the 80s/near 90 degrees for some by Saturday/Sunday. Instability-driven showers/storms become probable during this time frame, especially during peak heating each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 SCT RA/TSRA this afternoon, best chance will likely be along and north of M-72 roughly. Introduced VCTS at several terminals with a moderate confidence based on latest satellite trends and available guidance. Stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rain. Activity looks to diminish tonight, with LIFT CIGs across E UP and near IFR across the tip of the mitt. Winds will be light outside of any direct thunderstorm influence. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JLD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 335 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-091945- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 335 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Michigan through this evening. Any strong storms will be capable of producing hail, isolated strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible at times Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-091945- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 335 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Michigan through this evening. Any strong storms will be capable of producing hail, isolated strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible at times Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
418 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
MIZ018-023-082100-
Montmorency MI-Presque Isle MI-
418 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PRESQUE ISLE AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTMORENCY COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 417 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tomahawk Creek Flooding, or 12 miles north of Atlanta, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ocqueoc, Metz, Millersburg, Tomahawk Creek Flooding, Hawks,
Hagensville, Bisma Township, Canada Creek Ranch, and Moltke Township.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4520 8383 4520 8388 4516 8388 4507 8401
4516 8422 4547 8409 4530 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 214DEG 17KT 4517 8408
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JLDSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
426 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
MIZ021-027-082100-
Kalkaska MI-Antrim MI-
426 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ANTRIM AND NORTHERN
KALKASKA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kalkaska, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Kalkaska, Mancelona, Antrim, Darragh, and Blue Lake Township.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4502 8501 4486 8485 4464 8523 4472 8534
4476 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 227DEG 24KT 4475 8522
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JLDThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 28 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:59 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Report of powerlines down in the vicinity of Antrim and Mancelona, accompanied by public reports of dime sized hail and torrential rainfall in this area.
Reports of downed powerlines and multiple healthy large trees down on the southwest side of Otsego lake, including a tree on a house and a tree down over West Otsego Lake Drive, which resulted in West Otsego Lake Drive being closed for a time.
Report of downed power lines on the east side of Otsego Lake near Otsego Lake State Park.
NWS Employee passed along a report from a neighbor of a large part of a tree downed that punctured a garage roof.
Reports of large limbs and trees up to around 9 inch diameter broken and knocked down in the vicinity of Michaywe, including a snapped off birch tree leaning on a house on Opal Lake Rd near the golf course.
Powerlines down.
Social media report relayed by WFO GRR.
Report from social media of a tree snapped at its base, downing wires and a power pole. Rainfall report from the Alpena area of 2.41 inches of rain with thunderstorms with standing water in yard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1205411, 1205412, 1205414, 1205417, 1205416, 1205427, 1205435, 1205428.