A strong cold front crossed southern New England on Wednesday night the 28th bringing soaking rains and strong wind gusts to southern New England followed by sharply falling temperatures. This cold frontal passage included a fine line stronger storms.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOX wrote it up.
A strong cold front crossed southern New England on Wednesday night the 28th bringing soaking rains and strong wind gusts to southern New England followed by sharply falling temperatures. This cold frontal passage included a fine line stronger storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 10:25 PM EST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1025 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front approaching from the west will bring soaking
rains and strong wind gusts to southern New England tonight into
Wednesday evening, followed by sharply falling temperatures later
Wednesday night. Dry Thursday but windy and colder than normal, then
temperatures moderate and less wind Friday. Mild for the weekend
into early next week, but also wet at times.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
First round of showers associated with the strong warm advection
and a mid level shortwave continued to progress across southern
New England. Tweaked the rainfall chances in an attempt to time
them out better overnight. Thought the last few runs of the
HRRR and NationalBlend were helpful here. Focus of the steadier
rainfall expected to be across the eastern half of southern New
England, especially across RI and southeast MA after midnight.
Winds still expected to increase after midnight. No changes to
current wind headlines at this time.
730 PM update...
Leading edge of rain shield at 7 PM advancing into western
portions of CT and Long Island, moving rapidly NE. This is on
the nose of an increasing low level jet and associated moisture
and thermal advection. This band of rain will overspread the
remainder of CT/MA/RI as the evening progresses. Given rapidly
rising PWATs and forcing for ascent, embedded heavier rain at
times is expected. This low level jet also resulting in dew pts
rising thru the 40s across SNE, on increasing south winds.
Earlier discussion handles this well, therefore no changes with
this forecast update. Earlier discussion below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A fast moving mid level shortwave and accompanying deep moisture
plume will move across SNE this evening bringing a period of showers
to SNE. These showers are currently moving through western NY and
central PA and will arrive 7-9 pm in western New Eng and by 10 pm in
eastern New Eng. There is some convection and lightning to the west
with these showers but not much instability in SNE as these showers
move through so not expecting any thunder, but there could be some
locally heavy downpours with surging PWATs and some decrease in
static stability. Best chance for locally heavy showers will be
across RI and SE MA within the axis of the strengthening low level
jet. After the shortwave exits around midnight, there will likely be
a lull in the precip in the interior, but showers will be more
persistent across SE New Eng through the night. Winds begin to ramp
up tonight as the low level jet strengthens with gusts increasing to
35-45 mph along the south coast late tonight, with 20-30 mph gusts
further in the interior. Mild night with temps holding in the mid-
upper 40s, but rising into lower 50s in eastern MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Strong to damaging wind gusts developing near the coast Wed, then
expanding across rest of SNE Wed night as winds shift to west
* Locally heavy rainfall near the south coast
* Sharply falling temps Wed night with rain possibly changing to a
brief period of snow before ending. Minor accum possible over the
higher elevations
Wednesday into Wednesday night...
Rather dynamic mid level trough approaches from the west and sweeps
across New Eng Wed night, with a strong cold front quickly moving
though the region 8 pm to midnight. PWAT and low level wind
anomalies are 3-4SD above normal which is a good signal for heavy
rainfall and strong wind. Will break it down below.
Heavy rainfall...
Expect periods of showers Wed into Wed evening as anomalous PWAT
plume lifts north into SNE with low level jet and favorable upper
level jet dynamics providing deep layer lift. Not expecting
continuous rainfall for entire period but there will be waves of
showers right through Wed evening until the fropa. Instability is
limited so thunder probs are low but strong forcing and SWI near
zero supports locally heavy convective showers. Hi-res guidance
supports some sort of fine line moving in from the west along the
front, but it is weakening as it moves into the region. Best chance
for locally heavy rainfall will be along the south coast along the
nose of the low level jet. This is where locally 2-3 inches of rain
is possible, including what falls tonight. Elsewhere, expect 0.50"
to 1.50" rainfall. River flooding is not anticipated, but minor
street flooding in urban and poor drainage areas is possible where
rainfall exceeds 2 inches. However, impacts should not be
significant.
Strong wind...
Complex wind forecast for Wed into Wed night as 2 periods of strong
to potentially damaging wind are expected. One near the coast with
the southerly winds during Wed-Wed evening and a second surge with
the wind shift to west after the cold front passage. The threat for
damaging post frontal winds is greatest over the higher elevations
of northern MA.
As is typically the case with these southerly wind events there is a
low level inversion which complicates the forecast. Always a
challenge to determine how much wind will mix down. Pressure falls
are not particularly impressive but we have a strengthening low
level jet through the day, peaking at 80-90 kt Wed evening over the
Cape/Islands per the hi-res model suite. With temps getting into the
low-mid 50s this should allow 50-60 percent of the LLJ mixing down
which supports 45-55 mph gusts near the coast, and up 60+ mph on the
Cape/Islands. Any convective showers will help to enhance the wind
as well. HREF indicating high probs of gusts over 55 mph on the Cape
so we upgraded to a high wind warning here with wind advisory
remaining across rest of the coastal plain from I-95 south and east.
Another factor is that strong wind gusts will be persistent all day
and into the evening so long duration may enhance any wind issues.
Then we will have to deal with strong west winds along and behind
the cold front. This is a strong front with a strong pressure rise-
fall couplet and sharp temp gradient. Soundings show quickly
deepening boundary layer which will enhance mixing in the cold
advection. Strongest gusts will be over the high terrain in northern
MA, especially the Berkshires and potentially in portions of the CT
valley where 55-60+ mph gusts are possible. The pressure rises are
diminishing as they move east so peak winds will be diminishing
further east, but soundings support a period of 45-55 mph gusts
across rest of SNE along and behind the cold front. High wind watch
for the Berkshires was expanded east to include the Worcester Hills
and wind advisories were issued elsewhere.
Temps and potential snow...
Strong cold advection behind the front will result in sharply
falling temps Wed night from the 50s through the 30s a 3-6 hr
period, with morning lows in the 20s. Wind chills by Thu morning
will be in the single numbers and teens, and close to zero in the
Berkshires. So quite a different feel from Wed evening.
While it will be drying behind the front, there is a short window
with enough moisture for a brief changeover to snow before the
precip ends. Not much accum expected with generally a coating, but 1-
2 inches accum possible in the Berkshires. There is a low risk for
isolated icy spots as temps drop, especially where any minor accum
occurs, but otherwise not a big concern as strong winds and rapid
drying will dry out pavement before any freezing.
Coastal Flooding...
We are forecasting up to a 2 ft surge for Providence which will
still keep the total water level below 7 ft. Need a 3 ft surge for
minor flooding which is unlikely at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points
* Thursday - winter cold returns with wind chills in the teens!
* Friday - not as cold and remaining dry
* Weekend & early next week - mild but wet at times
Thursday...
Cold blast behind departing system, with strong CAA (850 mb temps
-15C 18z Thu and -9C at 925 mb) into SNE. Sunshine and
downsloping WNW winds will only yield highs of 30-35, upper 20s
high terrain. Wind chills will be even colder, with WNW winds
15-25G40 mph, possibly up to 50 mph at times across the
Berkshires. This will yield WC in the single digits and teens
in the morning, but only coming up to the teens and low 20s
during the afternoon.
Friday...
Not as cold with mid/upper trough over southeast Quebec continuing
to lift eastward. High pressure sliding southeast of New England
will promote SSW return flow, allowing cold morning temps in the
teens and 20s to rebound to 45-50 during the afternoon, along with
sunshine.
Weekend into early next week...
Southwest flow will result in mild temps but also wet at times, as
Gulf and Atlantic moisture advected northeast in the SW flow aloft.
Large model spread in guidance here on timing the timing of this
moisture, along with amplitude of downstream flow across the
northwest Atlantic. Much of the guidance does agree on dry weather
possibly lingering into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Mix of conditions this evening across southern New England,
although mainly MVFR/VFR. Pockets of IFR across the higher
terrain. Conditions expected to lower to more widespread
IFR/MVFR after 06Z through the morning push. Heaviest rainfall
and lowest visibility should be across the eastern half of
southern New England after midnight.
Previous discussion below.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Overall moderate confidence.
VFR area wide at the moment, and for just about everyone, that
will be the case through about 00z. There is some thin low
level stratus/fog is lingering just off the NE MA coast. Might
come awfully close to BOS prior to 20z due to a light onshore
sea breeze flow there, but thinking right now that a
strengthening southerly flow will ultimately push that stratus
northward. However mother nature will do what she wants, so it's
something to monitor as I did not include it in the forecast.
Otherwise conditions deteriorate this evening and overnight.
Guidance suggests another round of low stratus forming between
22z-01z along the south coastal areas. At the same time, showers
will be rapidly approaching from the west. All that moisture
should result in the rapid expansion of low stratus (with IFR
ceilings) across the region by 05z. And then it's pretty much a
locked in weather pattern for the entirety of Wednesday.
Occasional showers with IFR ceilings.
The other component to the forecast will be strengthening winds.
Winds in the 1000-5000ft altitude range will be rapidly
increasing tonight and through the day Wednesday, especially
across southeastern New England. By late in the day, winds at
5000ft are expected to be in the 70-90kt range across
southeastern areas, and 50-60kt elsewhere. This will produce
widespread LLWS starting overnight and through tomorrow. Surface
winds will also start to increase, with 20-30kt gusts in most
areas by 12z Wednesday. Expect gusts around 40kt across across
eastern areas (BOS, PVD, FMH, HYA, ACK) by Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night will start IFR, but a fast moving and strong
cold front will push across the region. VFR conditions could
develop after midnight in many areas. However, with the fronts
passage a quick wind shift to the northwest will occur. Frequent
strong gusts in excess of 40kts are expected at all locations,
with chance of 50kt+ for western portions of the area (ie: BAF).
KBOS TAF...moderate confidence. small possibility that brief IFR
occurs this afternoon prior to 20z if the thin stratus/fog over
Boston Harbor moves over the airport. Sea breeze should move out
22-23z. Timing of onset of IFR and precipitation may be off by a
couple of hours this evening.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of onset of IFR and
precipitation may be off by a couple of hours this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up
to 30 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Gale Warnings continue for all waters for 2 periods of gale
force winds. Strengthening low level jet will bring southerly
gales to the waters late tonight into Wed evening with gusts to
45 kt, then post frontal westerly gales later Wed night. Reduced
visibility in rain and fog tonight into Wednesday night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
14 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday through Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ002.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ003-004.
MA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ005-006-012.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ007-013>015.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ016>021.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
MAZ022>024.
RI...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
RIZ001.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
RIZ002>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ230.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ231>235-237.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ236.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250-254>256.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ251.
&&
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Nocera
NEAR TERM...KJC/Nocera
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Nash
MARINE...KJC/NoceraThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted generally 45 to 55 mph. The strongest gusts recorded included a 61 mph gust at the New Bedford Airport ASOS (KBED) and a 53 mph gust at a Weather Flow mesonet station at Horseneck Beach.
Winds generally gusted 50 to 50 mph. The strongest gusts included a 59 mph gust at the Beverly Airport ASOS (KBVY) at 12:44 AM EST on the 29th and a 53 mph gust at the Lawrence Airport ASOS (KLWM) at 10:30 PM EST on the 28th.
Winds generally gusted 45 to 55 mph. The strongest gust was a 58 mph gust recorded at 9:27 PM EST on the 28th at the Orange Airport ASOS (KORE). In Orange there was a large tree blocking the road near Wheeler Ave at 9:35 PM EST on the 28th. In Warwick there was a tree down on Wendell Rd and wires down on Revere Hill Rd at 9:35 PM EST on the 28th.
Winds generally gusted 45 to 55 mph. Some of the strongest gusts included a 60 mph gust at the Boston Logan Airport ASOS (KBOS) at 1:18 AM EST on the 29th and a 56 mph gust at Carson Beach at 2:32 AM EST on the 29th.
Winds generally gusted 45 to 55 mph. The strongest gusts were 59 mph at the Worcester Airport ASOS (KORH) at 2:18 AM EST on the 29th and a gust to 55 mph at the Fitchburg Airport ASOS (KFIT) at 1:57 AM EST on the 29th.
In East Longmeadow at 9:48 PM EST on the 29th a tree fell through the roof of a house on Sanford St. In Agawam at 9:50 PM EST on the 29th a tree fell on a car near Edward St.
In Ashby at 10:13 PM EST on the 28th a tree and wires were down across Damon Rd.
In Weston at 10:30 PM EST on the 28th a large tree was down on wires on Overlook Dr. In Ashland at 10:36 PM EST on the 28th a large tree was down on wires on Oak St.
In Hanson at 11:35 PM EST on the 28th a large tree was down on a house near Whitman St.
In Mattapoisett at 1:10 AM EST on the 29th a large tree was down on power lines near Long Plain Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Massachusetts in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Massachusetts, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154777, 1154778, 1154779, 1154780, 1154781, 1154783, 1154784, 1154785, 1154786, 1154787.