Hail and Damaging Wind in Maryland, April 15, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
229 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will drop southward through the area tonight,
before returning northward as a warm front on Wednesday. A
strong cold front will move through this weekend, with high
pressure building in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Severe Thunderstorrm Watch #109 is valid until 10 PM since it
covers most of VA to the NC border, although storms are likely
to exit our forecast around 7 PM. Very steep mid-level lapse
rates of around 8C/km due to 500 mb temps of around -20C were
observed on earlier upper air data and more recent MetOp-C
NUCAPS data. This will contribute to a very favorable
environment for large hail perhaps approaching significant hail
up to 2 inches in diameter. Storms will be fast movers moving
around 35 knots and given large dewpoint depressions and strond
mid-level flow may be also capable of producing strong to
damaging winds. Storms should exit our CWA by 8 PM, likely a
little sooner than that.

Rapidly clearing skies are expected later this evening behind
exiting cold front. High pressure builds over the area overnight
into Tue morning with quiet conditions overnight through Tue
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Showers return Tuesday afternoon across southwest areas as
front begins to return north as a warm front. Scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms will spread northeast late Tue
night/Wed morning as warm front attempts to lift through the
area. More showers appear possible Wed night as occluded front
crossest the area, although it isn't likely that it will be
raining the whole time. It will be cooler Wed with highs around
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Models continue to show varying solutions regarding the synoptic
pattern at the end of this week into the weekend. A weak disturbance
and surface low over the area Thursday morning will bring a chance
of showers, though rain chances are not particularly high at this
time. After that, models vary on when/how fast a cold front sweeps
through the area. The GFS is more progressive, showing a clean FROPA
sometime Friday night, then high pressure building in from the north
through the weekend. While the ECMWF, indicates a sagging front that
slowly moves through the area making for a wet weekend.

The temperature forecast will be dependent on what happens with the
aforementioned front. Currently have above normal highs in the low to
mid 70s Thursday through Saturday, becoming near normal in the 60s
for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday at all terminals,
though any impacts are likely to be minimal. VFR conditions prevail,
with brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible in any heavy
shower or storm. Northeast winds around 10kt, with some gusts to
20kt possible each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Near-SCA winds are possible in northeast flow Thursday afternoon
over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with gusts of 15kt or
less elsewhere. A cold front will be near the area Friday, and could
cross the waters by Friday night. Northeast to east winds will be
around 10-15kt.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-161000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area
except Cecil County until 10 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-161000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for areas south of
Interstate 70 in central Maryland and U.S. Highway 50 in northern
and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia until 10 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-161000-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area
except Mineral until 10 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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